Primaries to watch Tuesday (3/5/24) (Super Tuesday) (outside of presidential)

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling NC-8 R for Harris

Uncalled:
NC-1 R
NC-6 R
NC-13 R
Auditor R
Labor Commissioner R
Sec State R
Superintendent R
Treasurer R
AR-3 R
AL
TX

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

AL-3 R: Rogers
AL-4 R: Aderholt
AL-6 R: Palmer
AL-7 R: Sewell

Uncalled:
AL-1 R
AL-2 D
AL-2 R
AL-7 R
NC-1 R
NC-6 R
NC-13 R
Auditor R
Labor Commissioner R
Sec State R
Superintendent R
Treasurer R
AR-3 R
TX

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

https://twitter.com/henryolsenEPPC/status/1765216423171788833

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/henryolsenEPPC/status/1765216423171788833

Does this apply to statewide elections, meaning weatherman hasn’t won yet?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Texas:

Senate D: Allred
Senate R: Cruz
Railroad Commissioner D: Culbert
TX-2 R: Crenshaw
TX-3 R: Self
TX-4 R: Fallon
TX-6 R: Ellzey
TX-7 D: Fletcher
TX-10 D: Boisseau
TX-10 R: McCaul
TX-15 D: Vallejo
TX-15 R: De La Cruz
TX-16 D: Escobar
TX-17 R: Sessions
TX-18 D: Jackson-Lee
TX-19 R: Arrington
TX-22 D: Greene-Scott
TX-24 D: Eppler
TX-25 R: Williams
TX-26 R: Gill
TX-27 R: Cloud
TX-31 R: Carter
TX-33 D: Veasey
TX-33 R: Gillespie
TX-34 R: Flores
TX-36 R: Babin
TX-37 D: Doggett
TX-38 D: McDonough


Uncalled:

TX Railroad Commissioner R
TX-7 R
TX-12 D
TX-12 R
TX-18 R
TX-23 D
TX-23 R
TX-27 D
TX-28 R
TX-29 R
TX-31 D
TX-32 D
TX-32 R
TX-35 R
AL-1 R
AL-2 D
AL-2 R
AL-7 R
NC-1 R
NC-6 R
NC-13 R
Auditor R
Labor Commissioner R
Sec State R
Superintendent R
Treasurer R
AR-3 R

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

https://twitter.com/henryolsenEPPC/status/1765216423171788833

Does this apply to statewide elections, meaning weatherman hasn’t won yet?

yes

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/_fat_ugly_rat_/status/1765212126392541252

[Oryxslayer]

Going through once more on the interesting races, and any new surprises which popped up:

AL-01 probably going to be held by Jerry Carl. It's currently 56-44 Moore, but thats with most of the Dothan region reporting and a single precinct from Mobile.

Almost certainly a runoff between Shomari Figures with 39% and Anthony Daniels at 28%. Though Figures is probably going to increase her share and end up favored cause, again, not Mobile votes and she is from the region.

Womack is probably going to hold on, since he confidently leads in all the counties reporting 55-45 overall. Ad they are the large one. But he certainly got a fright.

54-46 Buckhout for NC-01 Rs. But that may tighten even further based on whats left. Still unclear who wins.

NC-06 is going to be a runoff between Addison McDowell and Mark Walker or Christian Castelli. More likely the first two names.

NC-08 currently has Mark Harris at 30.4%, right above the threshold. Based on what's left, he likely maintains that position.

Pat Harrigan wins NC-10.

Kelly Daugherty could pass 30% in NC-13, but with most remaining precincts in Wake, this seems unlikely. Open question who the runoff partner will be.

Collin Allred has won TX-Sen for Dems.

Dan Crenshaw got a scare but seems to be fine.

Craig Goldman has 46% of the vote in TX-12, O'Shea 25%. But with almost everything remaining in Tarrant where he is getting over 50%, a runoff still could be avoided.

Nothing new from TX-18.

With most of the vote in, Gonzalez is going to a runoff in TX-23 with 46% of the vote, likely versus Brandon Herrerra's 22%. He's still the overwhelming favorite, having carried every county.

Brandon Gill wins in TX-26 outright.

There will be a runoff in TX-28 for the GOP, with Furman in 45% and Garza Jr at 27%. In truth there still is a racial gap here.

Nothing new from TX-32.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/henryolsenEPPC/status/1765216423171788833

Does this apply to statewide elections, meaning weatherman hasn’t won yet?

yes

So that also means Harris is roughly 300 votes from being in a runoff as well

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/henryolsenEPPC/status/1765216423171788833

Does this apply to statewide elections, meaning weatherman hasn’t won yet?

Weatherman?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

TX-28 R: Furman-Garza Jr. RUNOFF
AR-3 R: Womack

Uncalled:

TX Railroad Commissioner R
TX-7 R
TX-12 D
TX-12 R
TX-18 R
TX-23 D
TX-23 R
TX-27 D
TX-29 R
TX-31 D
TX-32 D
TX-32 R
TX-35 R
AL-1 R
AL-2 D
AL-2 R
AL-7 R
NC-1 R
NC-6 R
NC-13 R
Auditor R
Labor Commissioner R
Sec State R
Superintendent R
Treasurer R

[Vosem]

Womack getting a scare wasn't that unexpected -- he got a scare in 2022 as well -- but Crenshaw being held to 59-41 was really out of nowhere. It looks like Tony Gonzales is also outright going to be held to a runoff by gun store owner Brandon Herrera.

Really hoping that Harris falls under 30% but given what's out it doesn't really look like it. At least Buckhout won.

Seems to be a much Trumpier situation in Texas than North Carolina at the moment -- Brandon Gill is winning outright (which is insane), with Crenshaw given a scare and Gonzales possibly losing, while in NC McDowell is only getting 26% (though he is moving on to the runoff), and Kelly Daughtry -- whose 2022 campaign was basically Haleyism -- is close to outright winning a regular Safe R seat.

[Vosem]

Must be noted that Gill winning in a landslide is another point in favor of my "whatever general-election voters or Democratic-primary voters may think, Republican-primary voters simply do not care about carpetbagging allegations" point. Gill just moved to the district from NYC.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

https://twitter.com/henryolsenEPPC/status/1765226239101382834

Looks like it will be Garvey v. Schiff.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

https://twitter.com/henryolsenEPPC/status/1765226239101382834

We truly are in the worst timeline.

[Storr]

Must be noted that Gill winning in a landslide is another point in favor of my "whatever general-election voters or Democratic-primary voters may think, Republican-primary voters simply do not care about carpetbagging allegations" point. Gill just moved to the district from NYC.

I feel like carpetbagging allegations only hurt in states and districts where most of the population is from there. TX-26 in suburban DFW is an area where many people are transplants who aren't from Texas, so they don't care if a candidate just moved from out of state. If Gill tried to do this in the panhandle or east Texas, voters probably wouldn't have been as receptive to a New Yorker.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1765227899223683275

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

So far Orange is Garvey, Schiff, Porter. This seems over.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/henryolsenEPPC/status/1765216423171788833

Does this apply to statewide elections, meaning weatherman hasn’t won yet?

Weatherman?

Hal Weatherman is the lead for the NC LT. Gov election, with 19.7%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Schiff is leading Garvey Garvey is gonna advance but lose the runoff

[Vosem]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1765227899223683275

Both carpetbaggers -- Figures from DC and Daniels from Huntsville! (Though in general, Democratic primary voters do care about carpetbagging, this is just a fun exception. Also Daniels did grow up in the district, even if he currently holds office outside of it, and Figures does belong to a political dynasty from the district, even if he's been in DC for a while.)

Must be noted that Gill winning in a landslide is another point in favor of my "whatever general-election voters or Democratic-primary voters may think, Republican-primary voters simply do not care about carpetbagging allegations" point. Gill just moved to the district from NYC.

I feel like carpetbagging allegations only hurt in states and districts where most of the population is from there. TX-26 in suburban DFW is an area where many people are transplants who aren't from Texas, so they don't care if a candidate just moved from out of state. If Gill tried to do this in the panhandle or east Texas, voters probably wouldn't have been as receptive to a New Yorker.

I think it depends on the reason the candidate hasn't been living there, too -- there's a pattern where people try to attack veterans with this and it never works. (Not that Gill is a veteran, but his example is remarkably brazen.)

It also seems like something that's worse in the Mid-Atlantic than other parts of the country, for whatever reason. (PA and WV are the two states with the highest percentage of residents born in-state, which might go some of the way to explaining it.)

[Roll Roons]

First results from CA-22 have Valadao with a solid lead, Salas in a fairly distant second with Mathys a close third.

[Matty]

Porter is only barely edging out Garvey in Sonoma county for 2nd

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/henryolsenEPPC/status/1765216423171788833

Does this apply to statewide elections, meaning weatherman hasn’t won yet?

Weatherman?

Hal Weatherman is the lead for the NC LT. Gov election, with 19.7%

Oh ok

[Tekken_Guy]

Must be noted that Gill winning in a landslide is another point in favor of my "whatever general-election voters or Democratic-primary voters may think, Republican-primary voters simply do not care about carpetbagging allegations" point. Gill just moved to the district from NYC.

I feel like carpetbagging allegations only hurt in states and districts where most of the population is from there. TX-26 in suburban DFW is an area where many people are transplants who aren't from Texas, so they don't care if a candidate just moved from out of state. If Gill tried to do this in the panhandle or east Texas, voters probably wouldn't have been as receptive to a New Yorker.

Carpetbagging also doesn’t work when you’re a sitting congressman carpetbagging to another seat. You’ll get a pass when you just got drawn out of your seat in redistricting (Claudia Tenney, Abigail Spanberger, Lucy McBath) or there’s goodwill being passed on from the outgoing congressman (the Diaz-Balart switch) But other times like Mondaire Jones it’s seen as a desperation move and received very poorly.