Primaries to watch Tuesday (3/5/24) (Super Tuesday) (outside of presidential)

[Vosem]

Primaries to watch at the House level, IMO:

Republican primaries:

AL-1: This is a redistricting race between Jerry Carl and Barry Moore. Carl is a pretty typical Republican incumbent while Moore is more ideological than is typical (he's expressed support for Matt Gaetz, though he wasn't personally a defector against McCarthy, and he has a history of very questionable statements WRT stuff like poll taxes). The geography here favors Carl, as this is mostly his old seat, and polling has confirmed that. A win for Moore would be considered a decently large upset, though it cannot be ruled out if that is where the mood is.

CA-20: Kevin McCarthy is retiring. His handpicked successor, St. Rep. Vince Fong, is the overwhelming favorite, but had been facing a Trumpier primary challenger in county sheriff Mike Boudreaux. Since Fong was endorsed by Trump himself, it seems likely he will advance with a Democrat, but Boudreaux may stay in the race through November.

CA-49: This race is to face Mike Levin. State and national Republicans have united around self-funder Matt Gunderson, who narrowly lost a state Senate race here in 2022, but county Republicans in San Diego county are backing media exec Margarita Wilkinson, who is a Mexican immigrant and is running as a somewhat more moderate candidate. (A third candidate, populist Kate Monroe, might win if Gunderson and Wilkinson divide the vote). Wilkinson seems somewhat stronger to me, though Gunderson has more money in his bid.

NC-1: This race is to face Don Davis. Although the seat is still Clinton/Biden, it is trending heavily rightwards, and under the new boundaries would've voted Republican in 2022. This contest is between 2022 candidate Sandy Smith, one of the weakest of that cycle's intake who I can only compare to J.R. Majewski in how thoroughly she collapsed, and national favorite, veteran Laurie Buckhout. Buckhout is thought of as the favorite, but Smith has high name recognition and could well surprise. Davis has been a popular moderate in office and a GOP gain here is no slam-dunk, but at the same time Smith being a notional winner and Trump's gains among minorities suggest Buckhout should be able to win a general against Davis if she avoids mistakes.

NC-6: This is a new safe Republican district drawn to replace Kathy Manning's seat. There are five serious Republican candidates, and the winner must eclipse 30% to avoid a runoff; this is likely but not guaranteed. There is no clear favorite; the best fundraiser has been Bo Hines, who lost a winnable race in 2022 in a different part of the state, but hot on his heels are ex-Rep. Mark Walker, who represented a similar seat between 2014 and 2020; self-funding veteran Christian Castelli, who was the GOP nominee in the earlier blue version of this seat in 2022 and honestly over-performed; lobbyist Addison McDowell, who has Trump's endorsement and endorsements from much of Trumpworld but has campaigned little; and local mayor Jay Wagner, who is the choice of House leadership. None of the five winning would surprise me.

NC-8: Dan Bishop is retiring. The favorite here is St. Rep. John Bradford, who has fundraised the most (especially from gun groups) and has basically all relevant endorsements. He has two challengers, one from 2018 nominee Mark Harris running on soconism and one from wealthy businessman Allan Baucom, who is running as a relative moderate. Bradford is overwhelmingly favored but either Harris or Baucom could surprise, and their ultimate performances will be interesting.

NC-10: Patrick McHenry is retiring. St. Rep. Grey Mills is the establishment favorite to replace him, with all of the important endorsements, but he's facing a challenge from self-funding veteran Pat Harrigan, who was the nominee in a blue seat in 2022. This race feels a little bit rural versus suburban, since Mills has endorsements from police and fire unions while Harrigan feels a little bit more 2010s-ideological, and is hitting Mills on his ties to the spendy state government. No clear favorite here.

NC-13: This is a safe Republican seat drawn to replace Wiley Nickel's seat. There are four major candidates; Devan Barbour, who came in second in the 2022 primary, is running as the relatively Trumpy candidate; two moderate self-funders, Kelly Daughtry and Fred von Canon, have both spent very large amounts; and a fourth candidate, prosecutor Brad Knott (running mostly on drug war, apparently) is the only one to have any support from outside groups. This has a weirdly moderate field for what is a fairly right-wing seat, which makes me think Barbour may be underestimated. There are also several more minor candidates (including local politicians who may be underestimated if their hometowns like them); a runoff will be triggered if nobody hits 30%.

NC-14: This is a new Republican seat drawn to replace Jeff Jackson's Democratic seat. State House Speaker Tim Moore is the overwhelming favorite and does not appear to have any remotely serious competition.

TX-12: Kay Granger is retiring. The overwhelming Republican favorite is St. Rep. Craig Goldman, who is vaguely fiscon (and Jewish). He's facing a number of medium-size challengers, most of whom are running on soconism. The main question here seems to be whether Goldman can cross 50% or if he will be held to a runoff.

TX-23: Tony Gonzales is relatively moderate for this seat, having voted for the January 6 investigation and also having a history of being soft on guns. Several of his challengers have pretty decent fundraising, but there's no clear singular individual they've united around. No chance Gonzales loses, but being held under 65% or so would be a warning shot that he should move right.

TX-26: Michael Burgess is retiring. The field here is relatively large, but the candidates who've received the most attention are banker Brandon Gill, who is the choice of national Republicans (son-in-law of Dinesh D'Souza) and has the support of basically all national figures, including Trump, but few ties to the seat and pretty openly carpetbagged in from New York; and local mayor John Huffman, running on hostility to wokeness, and especially hostility to wokeness in public education; Huffman is also emphasizing his local roots although the race hasn't really gone negative. There are several more candidates (including Scott Armey, who narrowly lost the primary in 2002 here and is the son of ex-Rep. Dick Armey, a prominent 1990s Republican leadership figure), but it would be surprising if the outcome were something other than a Gill/Huffman runoff. My guess is that Gill places first tonight but Huffman is probably favored in a direct contest.

TX-28: Henry Cuellar's seat is on the edge of competitiveness. The two Republican candidates here are Jay Furman, running on really hardcore Trumpism, and a much more "normal" candidate in Lazaro Garza. Neither really has any advantage in spending or endorsements so this is just an interesting look at which attitude is more popular here. (Garza winning would be a relatively good sign, and Furman a relatively bad one for the GOP. IMO, this seat is so Hispanic that even in a GOP primary I think nowadays Furman is at a bit of a disadvantage for being Anglo, though I could be wrong.)

Democratic primaries:

AL-2: The creation of a second black seat has led to a giant free-for-all which is all but certain to lead to a runoff. The three likeliest candidates to proceed seem to be state House Minority Leader Anthony Daniels, Obama/Biden administration figure Shomari Figures, and state Senator Merika Coleman. Daniels has support from the state Democratic leadership; Figures from national Democratic leadership; while Coleman is running at least somewhat to the left. Notably, all are carpetbaggers -- Daniels from Huntsville at the northern tip of the state, Figures from DC (though Figures is from an Alabama political dynasty which is from this seat), and Coleman from Birmingham. There are also multiple state Representatives with local bases but poor fundraising who may advance if their hometowns really like them.

CA-12: Barbara Lee is retiring. Insider (transit board member?) Lateefah Simon has basically gotten all of the relevant endorsements and is likely cruising to victory. She faces a whole bunch of dwarf campaigns, of whom the most notable is lesbian ethnic studies professor Jennifer Tran (also a Democrat) running to Simon's right. This is Oakland, so sure.

CA-16: Anna Eshoo is retiring. There is a huge Democratic field to succeed her, of whom the most prominent candidate (considered very likely to advance) is popular former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo, running on YIMBYism. Among his competitors are national favorite and veteran Peter Dixon, who has raised and spent the most; relative moderate county supervisor Joe Simitian; relative progressive St. Rep. Evan Low; BJP entryist and perennial candidate (but well-funded with high name rec) Rishi Kumar; and only woman in the field Julie Lythcott-Haims. There are two Republicans here, which most likely means two Democrats advance, but Liccardo especially might just win outright.

CA-29: Tony Cardenas is retiring. St. Rep. Luz Rivas has basically all of the relevant endorsements and is the huge favorite, and the question is whether she will advance with progressive perennial candidate Angelica Duenas or a Republican; Duenas probably has the name rec to make it.

CA-30: Adam Schiff is retiring. The field to succeed him is huge, with the most prominent candidates being St. Sen. Anthony Portantino, running on being supported by a zillion unions, and school board member Nick Melvoin, who is for education reform. Other notable candidates include Mike Feuer (supported by the LA Democratic establishment), Sepi Shyne (running on gay rights and AIPAC support), and Maebe A. Girl (running on trans rights); there are also several more local state Representatives and city councilmembers running (many of whom have fundraised enough to clear a field elsewhere, incidentally). There are two Republicans here, so it is likely that two Democrats advance, though it is possible for a Democrat to win outright.

CA-31: Grace Napolitano is retiring. The Democratic field to succeed her is huge, with the two most prominent names being former Rep. Gil Cisneros (a lottery winner and relative outsider) and St. Sen. Susan Rubio (the choice of state Democrats), though there is a high single-digit number of serious candidates. Notably, Cisneros and Rubio are backing different Republicans to try to box the other out, leading some Republicans to wonder if this is an extreme outside pickup opportunity since they over-performed here by a lot in 2022, though that is unlikely. I don't have much to say but Cisneros and Rubio are both likely to move on to November.

CA-40: Young Kim is a strong incumbent, but there's a Democratic primary to face her between self-funder Joe Kerr, who seems to be the choice of state Democrats, and school board member Allyson Damikolas, who seems to be the choice of national Democrats. Not much to say about this one although Damikolas seems to be clearly to Kerr's left.

CA-45: There is also a Democratic primary to face Michelle Steel, though veteran Derek Tran seems to have outspent the field and to have emerged as the solid favorite. The state Democratic party endorsed Kim Nguyen-Penaloza, but it seems like her campaign has lost traction to Tran's down the road. A third candidate, Cheyenne Hunt, has also gotten some attention running on TikTok leftism.

TX-7: Lizzie Fletcher is facing a challenge from Pervez Agwan on a #FreeGaza platform. Consensus is that Fletcher will demolish Agwan, but this is probably the most prominent race tonight being fought on this issue. Agwan breaking 30% would probably be a victory for him, IMO.

TX-18: Sheila Jackson-Lee has long been a controversial incumbent (known for poor treatment of staffers among other things), but she's also increasingly old, and fell flat on her face in the Houston mayoral election. She's facing a challenge from much-younger city councilwoman Amanda Edwards. Edwards is also a black woman; this race is about age rather than identity, though the non-black vote is expected to break hard for Edwards. There are several minor candidates and it seems like there is even an expectation of a runoff.

TX-32: Colin Allred is retiring. The two most prominent candidates here seem to be St. Rep. Julie Johnson and veteran Brian Williams. Johnson is a (lesbian) white woman who has endorsements from much of the state Democratic party (especially local unions; inasmuch as she has a signature issue it seems to be support for teachers?) while Williams, a black man, is the candidate of the national Democrats (inasmuch as he has a signature issue it is gun control). Several more minor candidates may throw the race to a runoff. IMO no clear favorite between the top two.

Mix:

Note that Republicans always do better in CA primaries than they "should" because of turnout patterns, but this year because of high turnout for the GOP primary this will be exaggerated. All "straw poll" figures should be interpreted as hitting the GOP ceiling.

CA-3: This will be a straw poll for how a race between Kevin Kiley and Jessica Morse will go. This seat was R+8 in 2022, but it's trending leftwards and could be competitive in a good Democratic year.

CA-9: Republicans recruited their dream candidate, Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln (who is an African-American veteran and popular mayor of the deep blue city) to face strong Democratic incumbent Josh Harder. This will be a straw poll to see how the Lincoln campaign is doing.

CA-13: Republican incumbent John Duarte won the narrowest victory of 2022. He is facing a rematch with former St. Rep. Adam Gray. This will be a straw poll to see how they're doing.

CA-21: Democratic incumbent Jim Costa is in a pretty safe seat (and won by 9 points in 2022), but he's faced close races before (in 2010 and 2014) and if there is real Republican improvement among minorities this is a place it would turn up, since there is some history of GOP voting among Hispanics in the Fresno area. His opponent is 2022 candidate Michael Maher; this will be a straw poll to see if Costa is vulnerable.

CA-22: This is an extremely negative race. Republican incumbent David Valadao is among the most moderate members of the Republican caucus, and is one of the few Trump-impeaching survivors; he is facing a primary challenge from a populist candidate in Chris Mathys, who nearly primaried him in 2022. The seat is heavily Democratic (Biden+13), but has a strong downballot Republican tradition. The two Democrats here, former St. Rep. Rudy Salas (who lost in the 2022 general) and St. Sen. Melissa Hurtado, have gone very negative against each other, with Salas as a relative moderate and Hurtado as a relative progressive. Both two Rs advancing and two Ds advancing are considered possible outcomes; the latter would be a very good sign for House Democrats.

CA-27: Republican incumbent Mike Garcia, who won by 6 points in 2022 in a Biden+12 seat, is a routine overperformer. Democrats have united around veteran George Whitesides as his opponent, who I believe has the best fundraising of any non-incumbent in the nation. This straw poll will show how the Whitesides campaign is going.

CA-34: Democratic incumbent Jimmy Gomez is getting his third consecutive challenge from David Kim; Kim keeps coming very close but not knocking Gomez off. This will show how effort number three from Kim is going.

CA-41: Another 2022 rematch, this one between Republican incumbent Ken Calvert and Democratic challenger Will Rollins.

CA-47: Democratic incumbent Katie Porter is retiring; this seat was highly Republican before Trump came on the stage and was closer than expected in 2022, but remains very Democratic. The two leading Democrats, St. Sen. Dave Min and nonprofit exec Joanna Weiss, have gone very negative on each other; Min has endorsements from many local unions while Weiss is more the choice of national Democrats. (Weiss also has had huge fundraising from basically pro-Israel forces, and while neither candidate seems to want to bring the issue to the forefront, part of what's going on here seems to be that Weiss is personally very pro-Israel and Min is personally very not.) On the Republican side, 2022 candidate Scott Baugh has seen overwhelmingly successful fundraising, and is the choice of both national and state Republicans, but county Republicans seem to be backing Max Ukropina, a former John Campbell staffer who is running a more moderate campaign. Baugh has outraised Ukropina a lot, but Ukropina has some decent endorsements and is running a real campaign, and an R-on-R general is not impossible, though most likely Baugh will advance with either Min or Weiss.

[Spectator]

Had a couple more down-ballot Super Tuesday primaries of interest

NC-1 (which I'm covered in following redistricting): If this wasn't a relatively rural district, we'd probably hear more talk about the fighting in the GOP primary between Sandy Smith (who lost the last time to Don Davis) and Laurie Buckhout, with Smith has been running nothing but attack ads against Buckhout (such as charging Buckhout with taking money from a George Soros-affiliated PAC) while I haven't seen anything on Buckhout responding (most of her ads have been rather rambling "biographical" spots). There's a good chance whoever wins on the GOP side might be seriously if not mortally wounded in a political sense.

VA-7: With Abigail Spanberger giving up the seat to prepare for a gubernatorial run; several interesting candidates have entered the race such as Democrats Eugene Vindman (twin brother of Lt. Col. Alex of the Trump-Ukraine hearings notoriety, endorsed by Adam Schiff) and Prince William County supervisor Andrea Bailey (endorsed by former Gov. Ralph Northam); while the GOP field includes retired Navy SEAL Cameron Hamilton (endorsed by Rand Paul) and the nominee the last time, retired Green Beret Derrick Anderson (endorsed by the likes of Speaker Mike Johnson and Tom Cotton among others).

NC-1 will be interesting. Smith underperformed Budd by almost 5 points last year. Davis needs that or more to probably win again this year if the district swings towards Trump like it’s expected to.

A lot of it depends on how well Trump does atop the ticket. Is he on track to replicate Budd’s margin or will it look more like his 2020 performance?

Somewhere in between like a Trump +4 or 5 win is what I'd expect.

Is that for the state or the district?

The district. I think Trump will flip NC-01 even if Biden wins NC statewide. It’s easily the most R-trending seat in the state.

[I’m not Stu]

For Los Angeles County DA, who does George Gascon face in November?

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

NYT page: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/03/05/us/elections/results-texas-primary.html

This goes to TX but you can easily navigate to the other pages from there.

Polls close at 7:30 ET in NC, 8 ET in AL, 8:30 ET in AR, by 9 ET in TX, and 11 ET in CA

As in past years, DDNN will be calling Senate, Governor, Row Offices, and U.S. House throughout this primary season.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Is there any chance Dems are locked out of CA-31. Seems like a lot of candidates on the D side and R favorable turnout. Unlikely but that would suck.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Primaries to watch at the House level, IMO:

Mix:

Note that Republicans always do better in CA primaries than they "should" because of turnout patterns, but this year because of high turnout for the GOP primary this will be exaggerated. All "straw poll" figures should be interpreted as hitting the GOP ceiling.

CA-3: This will be a straw poll for how a race between Kevin Kiley and Jessica Morse will go. This seat was R+8 in 2022, but it's trending leftwards and could be competitive in a good Democratic year.

For what it’s worth, I’ve only seen a few Morse signs. I don’t think I’ve seen any Kiley signs or any for the independent that will surely take third. Granted, I haven’t been up in the Sierras at all this year, just the parts of this district around Sacramento.

I’m assuming that both Morse and Kiley are waiting for the general since they’re shoo-ins tonight.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Very low turnout in SF polls as far as Eday , but a lot of people early voted

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Very low turnout in SF polls as far as Eday , but a lot of people early voted. We're getting mainly provisions ballots

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Buckhout up winning NC-1 by 980 with about 8% in

[Oryxslayer]

NC-13 is looking like a unholy mess, as expected. As there are actually a decent number of votes in.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1765184448167915773

[Oryxslayer]

How things stand as of posting this:

Literally 1 precinct in AL-02, but Shomari Figures is getting >50%.

Three precincts in NC-01 all for Buckhout 70-30.

2.4K votes in NC-06 but the votes are very fragments. But Bo Hines is #4 in the 2-5 pack, Walker in first <30%.

NC-03: Harris and Baucom both have 28%, John Bradford may go up from 20% though with Charlotte not reporting.

30K votes in NC-10, Mills has 45%, to Harrigan's 37%.

NC-13 is a mess. Kelly Daughtry is in first with 26%, but so many potential runoff rivals.

Moore has swept NC-14.

Collin Allred is going to win TX-Sen: He's sweeping everywhere outside of the south and still getting decent numbers in the majority hspanic southern counties. Mark Gonzalez is cutting into Gutierrez's supposed base.

Crenshaw may actually have a race...only 57% versus a single rival....

Goldman has a majority of the vote in TX-12 after the intial drop.

The early vote in Houston was 62% for Jackson-Lee.

Just Bexar County, Gonzalez has 50.1%. No unified opposition, Herrerra is in #2.

Brandon Gil has a majority of the vote in TX-26 with most of the votes in. No rival even close.

Julie Johnson has a majority of the vote right now in TX-32, all early.

Not even a race in TX-34.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/_fat_ugly_rat_/status/1765188232285659423

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/3/1/2226927/-The-year-s-first-downballot-primaries-start-Tuesday-Here-s-our-guide-to-all-the-key-races

Dailykos is actually very good at election coverage.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Gross that Brandon Gill will be going to Congress. Isn't he related to Dinesh D'Souza and worked on 1000 Mules?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gross that Brandon Gill will be going to Congress. Isn't he related to Dinesh D'Souza and worked on 1000 Mules?

He's D'Souza's son-in-law.  No idea if he worked on that piece of bad fan fiction 2000 Mules (not 1000).

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

If Crenshaw doesn't run for Senate in 2026 he might lose his next primary.

Also Womack is looking vulnerable in Arkansas.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1765198216692170889

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Gross that Brandon Gill will be going to Congress. Isn't he related to Dinesh D'Souza and worked on 1000 Mules?

He's D'Souza's son-in-law.  No idea if he worked on that piece of bad fan fiction 2000 Mules (not 1000).

He did, and he's also 29 and has no political experience or credentials. Looks like he could be the Cawthorn of the next Congess. Lucky us!

[Roll Roons]

Gross that Brandon Gill will be going to Congress. Isn't he related to Dinesh D'Souza and worked on 1000 Mules?

He's D'Souza's son-in-law.  No idea if he worked on that piece of bad fan fiction 2000 Mules (not 1000).

He did, and he's also 29 and has no political experience or credentials. Looks like he could be the Cawthorn of the next Congess. Lucky us!

Hopefully that means he completely embarrasses himself and gets tossed after one term.

[Oryxslayer]

74-26 Moore in the AL-01 showdown, but all the counted votes are from the Dothan region, most from Dothan itself.

Still barely any votes in AL-02, but its now a race between Shomari Figures and Anthony Daniels.

58-42 for Womack off some early votes from 2 of the counties.

NC-01 R has gotten close. Theres a geographic divide showing up, based seemingly on previous lines.

NC-06 is a three way, walker not longer on top. Bo Hines still in 4th. 

Virginia Foxx isn't going to lose her primary, but she is losing a moticable number of votes. Maybe her awful personal reputation finally coming home?

Mark Harris is at 29.5% with several counties done. Will he avoid a runoff with Baucom?

Pat Harrigan is the likely winner in NC-10, though it's close.

NC-13 remains a clusterF.

[Storr]

74-26 Moore in the AL-01 showdown, but all the counted votes are from the Dothan region, most from Dothan itself.

Still barely any votes in AL-02, but its now a race between Shomari Figures and Anthony Daniels.

58-42 for Womack off some early votes from 2 of the counties.

NC-01 R has gotten close. Theres a geographic divide showing up, based seemingly on previous lines.

NC-06 is a three way, walker not longer on top. Bo Hines still in 4th.  

Virginia Foxx isn't going to lose her primary, but she is losing a moticable number of votes. Maybe her awful personal reputation finally coming home?

Mark Harris is at 29.5% with several counties done. Will he avoid a runoff with Baucom?

Pat Harrigan is the likely winner in NC-10, though it's close.

NC-13 remains a clusterF.

Bo Hines losing would make me so happy, despite having to live with the new hideous gerrymander of NC. I’ve always gotten Madison Cawthorn vibes from Hines.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Julie Johnson looks almost certain to succeed Allred, making her the first openly gay congressman from the South

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Catching up, I will start in NC and work across the country from there.

Governor D: Stein
Governor R: Robinson
Lt Gov D: Hunt
Lt Gov R: Weatherman-O'Neill RUNOFF
Attorney General D: Jackson
Ag Commissioner R: Troxler
Insurance Commissioner D: Marcus
Insurance Commissioner R: Causey
Treasurer D: Harris
Superintendent D: Green
NC-2 D: Ross
NC-2 R: Swain
NC-4 R: Blankenburg
NC-5 R: Foxx
NC-9 R: Hudson
NC-10 R: Harrigan
NC-11 R: Edwards
NC-14 D: Genant
NC-14 R: Moore

Uncalled:
NC-1 R
NC-6 R
NC-8 R
NC-13 R
Auditor R
Labor Commissioner R
Sec State R
Superintendent R
Treasurer R
AR-3 R
AL
TX

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I find it f##king hilarious republicans have spent the last three years screaming election fraud then go and renominate the most recent person to get their election voided cause of legit fraud…