Primaries to watch Tuesday (3/5/24) (Super Tuesday) (outside of presidential)

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

The numbers from CA are disproportionately-Democratic early vote, right? Otherwise they're actually quite good for Democrats, on the whole.

Notably, CA-31 is actually within single digits of being an R-on-R runoff (Cisneros, the first-placed Democrat, leads Casas, the second Republican candidate, by just 9 points, or 24-15), but all of the other options are double-digits apart: Salas leads Mathys 30-19 (or by 11 points) in CA-22, and Min leads Ukropina 30-12 (by 28 points).

I believe so. My recollection on CA is that the early vote leans blue, it then gets more (relatively republican) however the last votes tend tend to be overwhelmly dem

[Kamala's side hoe]

National Dems are going to be sad if the candidate-specific results in OC stay as they are. Derrek Tran is slightly ahead of Nguyen-Penaloza n CA-45 and Min is further ahead of Weiss.

Hmm, are Derek Tran and David Min weaker candidates than their D rivals?

[Roll Roons]

National Dems are going to be sad if the candidate-specific results in OC stay as they are. Derrek Tran is slightly ahead of Nguyen-Penaloza n CA-45 and Min is further ahead of Weiss.

Hmm, are Derek Tran and David Min weaker candidates than their D rivals?

No, Tran is the preferred candidate in CA-45 because Nguyen's fundraising has been atrocious. There is also some concern about Min's DUI and AIPAC was keen to beat him in the primary, which I imagine hasn't gone away.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden did well and so did Schiff I said CA and IL is gonna infuse Biden campaign

[Sestak]

National Dems are going to be sad if the candidate-specific results in OC stay as they are. Derrek Tran is slightly ahead of Nguyen-Penaloza n CA-45 and Min is further ahead of Weiss.

Hmm, are Derek Tran and David Min weaker candidates than their D rivals?

Not necessarily, but their opponents are being pushed more by out-of-state groups.

[Sir Mohamed]

CA-SEN so far:

Calif. Open primary
44% of results in
Candidate    Percent    Votes
Adam Schiff (Dem)
   34.9%    1.212.420
Steve Garvey (GOP)
   30.9%    1.071.208
Katie Porter (Dem)    14.4%    499.887
Barbara Lee (Dem)    7.2%    251.258
See full results ›
Source: AP (as of 8:37 a.m. on March 6, 2024)

https://www.npr.org/2024/03/05/1236116786/california-senate-primary-schiff-porter-garvey

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1765227899223683275

Both carpetbaggers -- Figures from DC and Daniels from Huntsville! (Though in general, Democratic primary voters do care about carpetbagging, this is just a fun exception. Also Daniels did grow up in the district, even if he currently holds office outside of it, and Figures does belong to a political dynasty from the district, even if he's been in DC for a while.)

Must be noted that Gill winning in a landslide is another point in favor of my "whatever general-election voters or Democratic-primary voters may think, Republican-primary voters simply do not care about carpetbagging allegations" point. Gill just moved to the district from NYC.

I feel like carpetbagging allegations only hurt in states and districts where most of the population is from there. TX-26 in suburban DFW is an area where many people are transplants who aren't from Texas, so they don't care if a candidate just moved from out of state. If Gill tried to do this in the panhandle or east Texas, voters probably wouldn't have been as receptive to a New Yorker.

I think it depends on the reason the candidate hasn't been living there, too -- there's a pattern where people try to attack veterans with this and it never works. (Not that Gill is a veteran, but his example is remarkably brazen.)

It also seems like something that's worse in the Mid-Atlantic than other parts of the country, for whatever reason. (PA and WV are the two states with the highest percentage of residents born in-state, which might go some of the way to explaining it.)

To be fair, Figures has extremely extensive family ties to Mobile.  His parents were (in his mother’s case, still are) extremely influential figures in Mobile AA Democratic politics.  I believe he lived in Mobile until moving to DC for a position with the Biden DOJ.  This is more like Celeste Maloy where but for a job in DC that required moving, the person likely wouldn’t have left the area and probably would’ve returned anyway.  I don’t think it’s really accurate or fair to call either Figures or Maloy carpetbaggers. 

Contrast that with Daniels who is basically some random Huntsville politician who decided “I am in the party’s State House leadership, so I’ll run in the opposite end of the state and steamroll the locals.  I want the seat, so it should be mine.”  Daniels is very much a carpetbagger and it shows in the results.  People know Figures’ family in the Mobile area and he got a real native son boost there despite a second strong candidate from the area.  By contrast, Daniels didn’t really have a comparably strong base anywhere and his best areas were among the ones farther from Mobile.

[2016]

Bold Prediction: When all the Votes are counted in California Republican Steve Garvey will finish AHEAD of Rep. Adam Schiff. What a hilarious loss by serial liar and coward Adam, lol

[Holmes]

Bold Prediction: When all the Votes are counted in California Republican Steve Garvey will finish AHEAD of Rep. Adam Schiff. What a hilarious loss by serial liar and coward Adam, lol

Saving this one.

[2016]

The numbers from CA are disproportionately-Democratic early vote, right? Otherwise they're actually quite good for Democrats, on the whole.

Notably, CA-31 is actually within single digits of being an R-on-R runoff (Cisneros, the first-placed Democrat, leads Casas, the second Republican candidate, by just 9 points, or 24-15), but all of the other options are double-digits apart: Salas leads Mathys 30-19 (or by 11 points) in CA-22, and Min leads Ukropina 30-12 (by 28 points).

I believe so. My recollection on CA is that the early vote leans blue, it then gets more (relatively republican) however the last votes tend tend to be overwhelmly dem

This Primary was very different. Republicans voted in much higher Numbers. There is a reasonable chance Garvey will beat Schiff here.

[Agafin]

The numbers from CA are disproportionately-Democratic early vote, right? Otherwise they're actually quite good for Democrats, on the whole.

Notably, CA-31 is actually within single digits of being an R-on-R runoff (Cisneros, the first-placed Democrat, leads Casas, the second Republican candidate, by just 9 points, or 24-15), but all of the other options are double-digits apart: Salas leads Mathys 30-19 (or by 11 points) in CA-22, and Min leads Ukropina 30-12 (by 28 points).

I believe so. My recollection on CA is that the early vote leans blue, it then gets more (relatively republican) however the last votes tend tend to be overwhelmly dem

Hmmm if there really is a blue mirage, then this will probably be the best GOP performance in California since... 2010? The combined R vote is already over 40%.

[wbrocks67]

The numbers from CA are disproportionately-Democratic early vote, right? Otherwise they're actually quite good for Democrats, on the whole.

Notably, CA-31 is actually within single digits of being an R-on-R runoff (Cisneros, the first-placed Democrat, leads Casas, the second Republican candidate, by just 9 points, or 24-15), but all of the other options are double-digits apart: Salas leads Mathys 30-19 (or by 11 points) in CA-22, and Min leads Ukropina 30-12 (by 28 points).

I believe so. My recollection on CA is that the early vote leans blue, it then gets more (relatively republican) however the last votes tend tend to be overwhelmly dem

Hmmm if there really is a blue mirage, then this will probably be the best GOP performance in California since... 2010? The combined R vote is already over 40%.

We've already hit the 'relatively republican' stage though, we're past blue mirage. We've already counted a lot of of the VBM/early (Blue mirage) + in-person (Red mirage; that's why Schiff sank overnight), so now we're into kind of unknown territory with the rest.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

CA-10 Slot 2: Piccinini
CA-20 Slot 1: Fong
CA-22 Slot 1: Valadao
CA-30: Friedman and Balekian
CA-43 Slot 2: Williams
CA-47: Baugh and Min
TX-7 R: Omoruyi-Kane RUNOFF
TX-12 D: Hunt
TX-18 R: Centonze
TX-23 D: Limon
TX-23 R: Gonzalez-Barrera RUNOFF
TX-27 D: Lloyd
TX-31 D Slot 1: Whitlow
TX-35 R Slot 1: Rodriguez
NC-13 R: Daughtry-Knott RUNOFF
Auditor R: Clark-Boilek RUNOFF
Superintendent R: Morrow

Uncalled:

CA-12 Slot 2
CA-14 Slot 2
CA-20 Slot 2
CA-22 Slot 2
CA-25 Slot 2
CA-29 Slot 2
CA-34 Slot 2
CA-36 Slot 2
CA-37 Slot 2
CA-45 Slot 2
CA-48 Slot 2
CA-16
CA-31
TX-31 D Slot 2
TX-32 D
TX-35 R Slot 2
TX Railroad Commissioner R

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Should we still be worried about the possibility of a Dem lockout in CA-31?

51% in:

Cisneros (D) 21.4%
Martinez (R) 20.7%
Casas (R) 18.9%
Rubio (D) 15.1%
Archuleta (D) 10.5%

3 other D's below 10%


Cisneros is only 1500 votes ahead of Casas...

[ajc0918]

Should we still be worried about the possibility of a Dem lockout in CA-31?

51% in:

Cisneros (D) 21.4%
Martinez (R) 20.7%
Casas (R) 18.9%
Rubio (D) 15.1%
Archuleta (D) 10.5%

3 other D's below 10%


Cisneros is only 1500 votes ahead of Casas...

Aren't late arriving ballots usually more DEM leaning? If so then I think we're okay.

[Vosem]

Should we still be worried about the possibility of a Dem lockout in CA-31?

51% in:

Cisneros (D) 21.4%
Martinez (R) 20.7%
Casas (R) 18.9%
Rubio (D) 15.1%
Archuleta (D) 10.5%

3 other D's below 10%


Cisneros is only 1500 votes ahead of Casas...

Aren't late arriving ballots usually more DEM leaning? If so then I think we're okay.

The very last ones, yes (like the final 10%), but there's still a while to go of mostly more Republican stuff before we hit those.

Worried, sure, but I will say 2% is a pretty big margin to overcome.

The numbers from CA are disproportionately-Democratic early vote, right? Otherwise they're actually quite good for Democrats, on the whole.

Notably, CA-31 is actually within single digits of being an R-on-R runoff (Cisneros, the first-placed Democrat, leads Casas, the second Republican candidate, by just 9 points, or 24-15), but all of the other options are double-digits apart: Salas leads Mathys 30-19 (or by 11 points) in CA-22, and Min leads Ukropina 30-12 (by 28 points).

I believe so. My recollection on CA is that the early vote leans blue, it then gets more (relatively republican) however the last votes tend tend to be overwhelmly dem

Hmmm if there really is a blue mirage, then this will probably be the best GOP performance in California since... 2010? The combined R vote is already over 40%.

Which makes sense: this is the first cycle in a very long time with a contested Republican primary and no contested Democratic primary. (And eyeballing it I think it's still not actually as strong as 2014).

[Tekken_Guy]

Should we still be worried about the possibility of a Dem lockout in CA-31?

51% in:

Cisneros (D) 21.4%
Martinez (R) 20.7%
Casas (R) 18.9%
Rubio (D) 15.1%
Archuleta (D) 10.5%

3 other D's below 10%


Cisneros is only 1500 votes ahead of Casas...

Aren't late arriving ballots usually more DEM leaning? If so then I think we're okay.

The very last ones, yes (like the final 10%), but there's still a while to go of mostly more Republican stuff before we hit those.

Worried, sure, but I will say 2% is a pretty big margin to overcome.

The numbers from CA are disproportionately-Democratic early vote, right? Otherwise they're actually quite good for Democrats, on the whole.

Notably, CA-31 is actually within single digits of being an R-on-R runoff (Cisneros, the first-placed Democrat, leads Casas, the second Republican candidate, by just 9 points, or 24-15), but all of the other options are double-digits apart: Salas leads Mathys 30-19 (or by 11 points) in CA-22, and Min leads Ukropina 30-12 (by 28 points).

I believe so. My recollection on CA is that the early vote leans blue, it then gets more (relatively republican) however the last votes tend tend to be overwhelmly dem

Hmmm if there really is a blue mirage, then this will probably be the best GOP performance in California since... 2010? The combined R vote is already over 40%.

Which makes sense: this is the first cycle in a very long time with a contested Republican primary and no contested Democratic primary. (And eyeballing it I think it's still not actually as strong as 2014).

Cisneros should be fine if we’re going by past performance. Linda Sanchez has a demographically similar district and her GOP opponent was within 10 points after the first day, but she ended up winning by 16.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Is there any chance Dems are locked out of CA-31. Seems like a lot of candidates on the D side and R favorable turnout. Unlikely but that would suck.

Seems like we probably avoid this, but told ya it could be an issue.

CA Dems rlly need to be more careful in the future and not run like 50 semi-serious people for safe D seats.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Is there any chance Dems are locked out of CA-31. Seems like a lot of candidates on the D side and R favorable turnout. Unlikely but that would suck.

Seems like we probably avoid this, but told ya it could be an issue.

CA Dems rlly need to be more careful in the future and not run like 50 semi-serious people for safe D seats.

Yeah, too early to make a projection but I think Cisneros makes it - but still, this is a close call and would have been extremely embarrassing. Imagine if the GOP got 218 seats and won the majority because Dems got locked out of a safe D seat in SoCal?

[Kamala's side hoe]

The GOP is doing awfully well in CA and I can't make heads or tails of it.

Only place where GOP turnout advantage from a contested primary gets applied to D vs. R races.

Senate combined right now is 57.29 D - 41.15 R - 1.56 I/L.
Senate special is 58.6 D - 41.4 R.

If I recall the movement from after e-day to final in CA from 2022, we can expect the Dem margin to grow by about three points overall.

By district in Nov 22 at 3:59 AM ET to Final:

CA-03: R+2.6 -> R+7.2
CA-09: D+17.4 -> D+9.6
CA-13: R+0.3 -> R+0.4
CA-22: R+7.8 -> R+3.0
CA-27: R+4.6 -> R+6.4
CA-40: R+18 -> R+13.6
CA-41: D+12.8 -> R+4.6
CA-45: R+10.6 -> R+4.8
CA-47: D+0.6 -> D+3.4
CA-49: D+3.8 -> D+5.2

As you can see, overall slight shift towards Democrats but a lot of variation. One wrinkle with CA-13 tonight is that NYT isn't reporting totals since it was unchallenged. Also, CA-41 has that D+13 with 26% in versus Calvert +0 is with 50% in. Regardless, that is a district that people plainly pretend is more competitive than it is, possibly due to the district initially coming in blue, possibly due to ET being gay and having a crush on Rollins.

The skewed turnout is an issue in analyzing the jungle, but some observations can be made.

CA-03: Kiley looks good. Another red shifting district that is overrated for its competitiveness.
CA-09: The GOP is putting more effort into this one and Harder will have to fight harder. Bad turnout but overall vote looks to be shifted more than the state as a whole.
CA-13: Uncontested so no info.
CA-22: Decent result for Democrats given the weak Latino turnout. Unless Hurtado was getting some of Valadao's Latino crossover support, Valadao vs. Salas looks a little better for Salas.
CA-27: Garcia doesn't look weakened at all. Will be difficult for Dems to pry him away despite the partisanship of the district.
CA-40: Kim looks to be in the driver's seat.
CA-41: Not that much evidence to think Calvert isn't favored to by a few again. Possibly one of the only districts where low turnout isn't that damaging to Dems in CA.
CA-45: Steel looks favored to win by a few in the general again.
CA-47: Combined R will exceed D in the end in CA-47 by a few points. Shifting to the general that will flip, but Min's weakness makes it a real tossup.
CA-49: Levin looks strong. No realistic chance for the GOP to flip outside of a lopsided environment.

Reposting to this thread. I saw a tweet somewhere on the forum proper yesterday that claimed the combined D vote in CA-45 was 48%. That has now decreased to 43% with 48% of the vote counted. We'll have to see what happens as the votes come in. (On the bright side, Dave Min's lead over Joanne Weiss in CA-47 has gone up now quite a bit that 60% of the vote is in.)

Also- in CA-11, Pelosi is slightly outperforming my baseline expectations. It seems that the at-large drop off in under-50 has blunted the impact of her recent gaffes.

[2016]

Keep in this in mind: There is such a thing in Politics that's called "Creating your own brand" and certainly Michelle Steel, Young Kim and Mike Garcia have done that. Kudos to them!

Also, John Duarte should be mentioned who leads Adam Gray by 10 Points the last time I checked.

Democrats had a terrible Night in California yesterday just like in 2022.

President Biden JA 50/49 among all CA Primary Voters.
Governor Newsom not a ton better with a 52/47 JA Rating. Maybe instead of blanketing Florida & Texas Billboards with Anti Pro-Life Ads and throwing tantrums + haymakers at Abbott, DeSantis & other GOP Governors he should focus on his own State first.

Newsoms 2028 Presidential Aspirations ended last Night.

The CNN Exits point to a narrow Garvey Win in the Open Senate Primary

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/primaries-and-caucuses/exit-polls/california/senate-open-primary/0

It's a Non-Democratic Electorate. You add Independent + Republicans, they account for 57 % versus 43 % who described themselves as self-identified Democrats.

[Spectator]

Keep in this in mind: There is such a thing in Politics that's called "Creating your own brand" and certainly Michelle Steel, Young Kim and Mike Garcia have done that. Kudos to them!

Also, John Duarte should be mentioned who leads Adam Gray by 10 Points the last time I checked.

Democrats had a terrible Night in California yesterday just like in 2022.

President Biden JA 50/49 among all CA Primary Voters.
Governor Newsom not a ton better with a 52/47 JA Rating. Maybe instead of blanketing Florida & Texas Billboards with Anti Pro-Life Ads and throwing tantrums + haymakers at Abbott, DeSantis & other GOP Governors he should focus on his own State first.

Newsoms 2028 Presidential Aspirations ended last Night.

The CNN Exits point to a narrow Garvey Win in the Open Senate Primary

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/primaries-and-caucuses/exit-polls/california/senate-open-primary/0

It's a Non-Democratic Electorate. You add Independent + Republicans, they account for 57 % versus 43 % who described themselves as self-identified Democrats.

There was a Republican presidential primary going on. This isn't representative of what the general election is going to look like in a presidential year at all.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Are Dems out of the woods in CA-31 yet? 50% of the vote is in and Cisneros is only at 21% while the 2 Republicans are at 21% and 19% respectively. Should the remaining vote be more D-favorable?

[2016]

Keep in this in mind: There is such a thing in Politics that's called "Creating your own brand" and certainly Michelle Steel, Young Kim and Mike Garcia have done that. Kudos to them!

Also, John Duarte should be mentioned who leads Adam Gray by 10 Points the last time I checked.

Democrats had a terrible Night in California yesterday just like in 2022.

President Biden JA 50/49 among all CA Primary Voters.
Governor Newsom not a ton better with a 52/47 JA Rating. Maybe instead of blanketing Florida & Texas Billboards with Anti Pro-Life Ads and throwing tantrums + haymakers at Abbott, DeSantis & other GOP Governors he should focus on his own State first.

Newsoms 2028 Presidential Aspirations ended last Night.

The CNN Exits point to a narrow Garvey Win in the Open Senate Primary

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/primaries-and-caucuses/exit-polls/california/senate-open-primary/0

It's a Non-Democratic Electorate. You add Independent + Republicans, they account for 57 % versus 43 % who described themselves as self-identified Democrats.

There was a Republican presidential primary going on. This isn't representative of what the general election is going to look like in a presidential year at all.

Biden beat Trump in 2020 63-34 in CA YET Young Kim, Michelle Steel, David Valadao beat Democratic Incumbents + Mike Garcia hung on as well, go figure!
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/california-results/
I doubt it will be too much worse in 2024.

There is a reason Governor Newsom may face a second Recall Effort. That's how bad he and his brand is in CA.

[Tekken_Guy]

Are Dems out of the woods in CA-31 yet? 50% of the vote is in and Cisneros is only at 21% while the 2 Republicans are at 21% and 19% respectively. Should the remaining vote be more D-favorable?

He should be fine. Dems have already gotten through the eye of the storm which was E-Day. Now it’s mostly mail which should favor D’s.