NYT/Siena: Biden +69, Trump +55

[wbrocks67]

Caution: these are pretty small samples. GOP is n=292 and Dem is n=224

Trump 76%
Haley 21%
Don’t know 2%

Biden 79%
Phillips 10%
Don’t know 10%

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/03/02/us/elections/times-siena-poll-likely-electorate-crosstabs.html

[wbrocks67]

Caveat being the very small sample here, but this seems to be a reoccurring theme here. Phillips is way higher than any result thus far, and the Don't Know's continue to be double digits here and in other polls, but from most of the contests so far, these people end up just going to Biden.

[Eraserhead]

Phillips can't even beat Williamson who apparently wasn't polled. Biden number looks a little lower than it should be but not by much.

[Eraserhead]

Caveat being the very small sample here, but this seems to be a reoccurring theme here. Phillips is way higher than any result thus far, and the Don't Know's continue to be double digits here and in other polls, but from most of the contests so far, these people end up just going to Biden.

It was a special case but in fairness Phillips was way higher than this in New Hampshire.

Also what's the evidence that the "don't knows" are going for Biden? Just had a race in Michigan where "Uncommitted" was even higher that that.

[President Johnson]

Huh, New York Times generally seems to be one of Biden's worst pollsters lately. 10% seems way off for this clown named Phillipps and is about five times the support he got in all primaries other than New Hampshire.

[wbrocks67]

Caveat being the very small sample here, but this seems to be a reoccurring theme here. Phillips is way higher than any result thus far, and the Don't Know's continue to be double digits here and in other polls, but from most of the contests so far, these people end up just going to Biden.

It was a special case but in fairness Phillips was way higher than this in New Hampshire.

Also what's the evidence that the "don't knows" are going for Biden? Just had a race in Michigan where "Uncommitted" was even higher that that.

I'm going off of NV/SC since they're kind of generic races, since NH and MI had special circumstances. Even in Michigan, the 'uncommitted' vote was highly touted and promoted and still only get 13%, yet Don't Know consistently gets 10% in the polls. I think the overall meh-Biden vote has just been kind of overstated in the Dem primary polling in general. Again, just look at Phillips and Williamson also constantly being overestimated.

[Eraserhead]

Caveat being the very small sample here, but this seems to be a reoccurring theme here. Phillips is way higher than any result thus far, and the Don't Know's continue to be double digits here and in other polls, but from most of the contests so far, these people end up just going to Biden.

It was a special case but in fairness Phillips was way higher than this in New Hampshire.

Also what's the evidence that the "don't knows" are going for Biden? Just had a race in Michigan where "Uncommitted" was even higher that that.

I'm going off of NV/SC since they're kind of generic races, since NH and MI had special circumstances. Even in Michigan, the 'uncommitted' vote was highly touted and promoted and still only get 13%, yet Don't Know consistently gets 10% in the polls. I think the overall meh-Biden vote has just been kind of overstated in the Dem primary polling in general. Again, just look at Phillips and Williamson also constantly being overestimated.

NV, I guess. SC wasn't generic, Biden literally moved them to the front of the primary calendar as a thank you for voting so big for him last time. lol.

[wbrocks67]

Caveat being the very small sample here, but this seems to be a reoccurring theme here. Phillips is way higher than any result thus far, and the Don't Know's continue to be double digits here and in other polls, but from most of the contests so far, these people end up just going to Biden.

It was a special case but in fairness Phillips was way higher than this in New Hampshire.

Also what's the evidence that the "don't knows" are going for Biden? Just had a race in Michigan where "Uncommitted" was even higher that that.

I'm going off of NV/SC since they're kind of generic races, since NH and MI had special circumstances. Even in Michigan, the 'uncommitted' vote was highly touted and promoted and still only get 13%, yet Don't Know consistently gets 10% in the polls. I think the overall meh-Biden vote has just been kind of overstated in the Dem primary polling in general. Again, just look at Phillips and Williamson also constantly being overestimated.

NV, I guess. SC wasn't generic, Biden literally moved them to the front of the primary calendar as a thank you for voting so big for him last time. lol.

I mean generic in that it was just a typical primary with the 3 of them on the ballot. Same as NV. NH and MI had special circumstances with the write-in/promoted uncommitted vote etc

Like in the Super Tuesday states on Tuesday, I'd be shocked if Phillips gets more than 5% in any of them, let alone 10-12%. That's where I think these polls are missing the mark. They're registering more discontent with Biden than there really is, and I think that's just an example of the people they're getting to answer their calls. Normie Dem voters don't have as much of an issue with him imo

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/deanbphillips/status/1764331778506883560?t=si7cwquFEpJwa6Gs0...