CA Sen (Berkeley IGS): Garvey pulls into first place

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1763539869832208791

[Holmes]

Wow, California really deserves better.

[kwabbit]

As soon as the GOP started to coalesce around Garvey this became likely. Based on the actual ballot returns, the GOP primary is fueling a Republican turnout advantage that may bring the partisan split to 60-40ish. Hard for Garvey to not come in first with that.

[Sir Mohamed]

Almost certainly it will be Schiff vs. Garvey. But Schiff will come in 1st on Tuesday.

[wbrocks67]

They also did GE matchups:

Schiff (D) 30%
Porter (R) 30%
Undecided/neither 40%

Schiff (D) 53%
Garvey (R) 38%
Undecided/neither 9%

Porter (D) 52%
Garvey (R) 38%
Undecided/neither 10%

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Interesting numbers for the partial term,

Garvey 29
Schiff 23
Porter20
Lee 10
Earley 8

Porter much closer. Split result might be possible

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Nope

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I was one of the people polled for this!

Sad to see Garvey pull into first. We’ll see if the Republican vote does end up coalescing like the polls are showing.

[SnowLabrador]

I don't buy that if the GOP gets locked out of the Senate race, the red team's turnout will crater in November. They still have Trump to vote for. That being said, a GOP lockout looks increasingly unlikely. It'll be Schiff vs. Garvey.

[wbrocks67]

I was one of the people polled for this!

Sad to see Garvey pull into first. We’ll see if the Republican vote does end up coalescing like the polls are showing.

I mean, given that there are 3 prominent Dems and only 1 prominent R here, I would not be surprised to see him in first if all the Rs coalesce around him.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Its only 2 pts, and I doubt Garvey is in 1st pace Schiff is likely to wind up in 1st

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I was one of the people polled for this!

Sad to see Garvey pull into first. We’ll see if the Republican vote does end up coalescing like the polls are showing.

I mean, given that there are 3 prominent Dems and only 1 prominent R here, I would not be surprised to see him in first if all the Rs coalesce around him.

There’s a lot of other Republicans on the ballot, which is what gives me pause. See 2022, for example. I will say that Garvey does seem to have done a better job of getting Republicans to coalesce, but we’ll see for sure in a few days.

[Cyrusman]

If Garvey was running in AZ against Gallego, he's win by 4-5

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I think Garvey will do quite well in the general. He will probably win Orange county and a variety of counties in the central valley and NorCal. It's California, Schiff will win by a very large margin, but I could see Garvey cracking 40% on a good night.

[Kabam]

It would be funny, if Schiff somehow falls behind Porter in third and eliminates himself by helping Garvey.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

It would be funny, if Schiff somehow falls behind Porter in third and eliminates himself by helping Garvey.

The polling basically shows the opposite of the following happening, but it would be funny too.

Schiff makes it to the short term election, but doesn’t make it to the 6 year term election.

[Mr. Smith]

At this point, I'm just hoping CA-12 still goes for Lee when all's said and done.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This poll lied to us

[Mr. Smith]

This poll lied to us

It didn't.