Roanoke Polling: Haley within strike distance of Trump in VA primary

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

14. How likely is it that you will vote in the Virginia Republican presidential primary on March 5? Would you say very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely, or not likely at all?

Very Likely 37%
Somewhat Likely 19%
Not Very Likely 14%
Not Likely at All 30%

14a. (If “Very” or “Somewhat” likely) If the Republican primary election were being held today, who would you vote for:

Donald Trump 51%
Nikki Haley 43%
Someone Else 1%
Refused 3%

Among likely voters on Tuesday, Democrats prefer Haley (87%) over Trump (10%), Republicans choose Trump (80%) over Haley (18%) and the closeness of the race comes from independents who prefer Haley (54%) over Trump (44%). Of the entire sample, 40% of Democrats, 84% of Republicans and 55% of independents self-identified into the “likely voter” category.

https://www.roanoke.edu/news/rc_poll_politics_feb_2024

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Of the entire sample, 40% of Democrats, 84% of Republicans and 55% of independents self-identified into the “likely voter” category.

This is possibly a major flaw of this poll.

It would mean a lot of Democrats voting in the Republican primary and too many Independents, which is not gonna happen ...

[Roll Roons]

This will be one of Haley's best states. Trump is a horrible fit for VA.

[Sir Mohamed]

This will be one of Haley's best states. Trump is a horrible fit for VA.

Yup, I think the poll may actually nail the final result. Obviously still not enough for Haley to win at all.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Of the entire sample, 40% of Democrats, 84% of Republicans and 55% of independents self-identified into the “likely voter” category.

It would mean a lot of Democrats voting in the Republican primary and too many Independents, which is not gonna happen ...

Well the D primary is basically over. And it's not like those people are gonna vote ceasefire or uncommitted in a D primary anyways, so... yes i can see it happen, why?

Well many people hate Trump and voting for Haley can be a way for these voters to vent that they don't want Trump as the GOP nominee and more importantly... well we all know who voted for Liz Cheney in their WY primary for the most part (or strategically voted Murkowski before Alaska had RCV).

Tho i'm not 100% sure how registration for the GOP primary works in VA (and IIRC it's different based on what state).

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

There is evidence that Democrats are crossing over to vote in the Republican Primary for Haley in larger numbers than previous polls suggested.

[Redban]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1763593101585637859?t=Iq9nNdK447spiTFx...

That delta between adults and likely voters is interesting  

I don't think there is anything about adults vs likely-voters.  That 75/15 split is for VA Republicans adults. With likely Republican voters, the split goes to 80/18, which is basically the same

The overall margin goes to 51/43 because of Democrats and independents, not because of the All-adults vs Likely-voter difference. Haley has support from 87% of Democrats and 54% of independents.

[Senator Incitatus]

Youngkin should endorse Trump immediately.

[SnowLabrador]

Yeah, right, and I might sprout wings.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

There is evidence that Democrats are crossing over to vote in the Republican Primary for Haley in larger numbers than previous polls suggested.

What evidence? I get the theory, but I don't think we have any solid, smoking gun evidence that that's true.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

There is evidence that Democrats are crossing over to vote in the Republican Primary for Haley in larger numbers than previous polls suggested.

What evidence? I get the theory, but I don't think we have any solid, smoking gun evidence that that's true.

Actual election turnout disparity between the parties, exit polls and results. Ie over half of the NH electorate was independent/Democrat, way higher than polls suggested.

[Eraserhead]

It would be kind of funny if Trump actually loses a state or even almost loses a state on Tuesday.

[2016]

There is evidence that Democrats are crossing over to vote in the Republican Primary for Haley in larger numbers than previous polls suggested.

What evidence? I get the theory, but I don't think we have any solid, smoking gun evidence that that's true.

You want evidence? Here is it:
https://twitter.com/WWRKDS/status/1761778739795390850

[Progressive Pessimist]

Perhaps this indicates that she could actually win DC, especially if she overperforms again.

I'll need to see a bit more polling to be convinced. It's a safe bet that Haley should plant herself in the DC area over the next few weeks though.

[Mopsus]

Yeah, right, and I might sprout wings.

It wouldn’t be the most surprising thing to happen. Rubio almost won Virginia in 2016, and probably would have if the anti-Trump vote weren’t split between him and Cruz.

[Aurelius2]

Perhaps this indicates that she could actually win DC, especially if she overperforms again.

I'll need to see a bit more polling to be convinced. It's a safe bet that Haley should plant herself in the DC area over the next few weeks though.

Oh she's absolutely going to win DC. No question at all about that.

[2016]

Perhaps this indicates that she could actually win DC, especially if she overperforms again.

I'll need to see a bit more polling to be convinced. It's a safe bet that Haley should plant herself in the DC area over the next few weeks though.

Oh she's absolutely going to win DC. No question at all about that.

Trump will be blasted in Virginia in November.

[Aurelius2]

Perhaps this indicates that she could actually win DC, especially if she overperforms again.

I'll need to see a bit more polling to be convinced. It's a safe bet that Haley should plant herself in the DC area over the next few weeks though.

Oh she's absolutely going to win DC. No question at all about that.

Trump will be blasted in Virginia in November.

K. That's not what the thread is about.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Not gonna happen. Trump will get 60% or so.

[heatcharger]

You have to understand that opposing TRUMP is a religion for some people.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Bad poll.