Rank Maricopa County

[Samof94]

How would you rank this urban county?

[SnowLabrador]

Tilt D.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Lean D.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean D

[Cyrusman]

Tossup due to RFK

A bunch of middle of the road people who can't bring themselves to vote for either candidate who are dying to vote for some alternate. AZ is also a very independent type state and Johnson got a solid share here in 2016. Stein will take some votes to.

IF RFK isn't on the ballot, then tilt D.

IF this was Hailey instead of Trump, Tilt to Lean R

[Progressive Pessimist]

Tossup due to RFK

A bunch of middle of the road people who can't bring themselves to vote for either candidate who are dying to vote for some alternate. AZ is also a very independent type state and Johnson got a solid share here in 2016. Stein will take some votes to.

IF RFK isn't on the ballot, then tilt D.

IF this was Hailey instead of Trump, Tilt to Lean R

Educated voters like in Maricopa are probably less likely to go third party.

[kwabbit]

Tilt D.

You realize this means Arizona is a pure tossup? Maricopa votes only a smidge to the left of the state.

[SnowLabrador]

Tilt D.

You realize this means Arizona is a pure tossup? Maricopa votes only a smidge to the left of the state.

I do believe Arizona is a tossup. I expect it to trend leftward given the 2022 results, and will probably be Biden's best state out of the Big Six. It is a necessary but not sufficient state for him.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I think Lean D is fair. Trump could win it if everything is going well for him, but the county is a uniquely terrible fit for him. For the county races, I expect Rs to still sweep all of them since Maricopa is still quite red downballot. The sheriff race will technically go D, but he is basically a Republican who changed party registration to be a Dem since Penzone had to be replaced by a person of the same party.

Tilt D.

You realize this means Arizona is a pure tossup? Maricopa votes only a smidge to the left of the state.

This was true a few years ago, but due to coalition shift Trump can probably afford a 2pt loss, and 2.5 is probably the cutoff now.

[kwabbit]

I think Lean D is fair. Trump could win it if everything is going well for him, but the county is a uniquely terrible fit for him. For the county races, I expect Rs to still sweep all of them since Maricopa is still quite red downballot. The sheriff race will technically go D, but he is basically a Republican who changed party registration to be a Dem since Penzone had to be replaced by a person of the same party.

Tilt D.

You realize this means Arizona is a pure tossup? Maricopa votes only a smidge to the left of the state.

This was true a few years ago, but due to coalition shift Trump can probably afford a 2pt loss, and 2.5 is probably the cutoff now.

Which is Tilt D, which is optimistic for SnowLabrador.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think Lean D is fair. Trump could win it if everything is going well for him, but the county is a uniquely terrible fit for him. For the county races, I expect Rs to still sweep all of them since Maricopa is still quite red downballot. The sheriff race will technically go D, but he is basically a Republican who changed party registration to be a Dem since Penzone had to be replaced by a person of the same party.

Tilt D.

You realize this means Arizona is a pure tossup? Maricopa votes only a smidge to the left of the state.

This was true a few years ago, but due to coalition shift Trump can probably afford a 2pt loss, and 2.5 is probably the cutoff now.

Maricopa is quite interesting because while in many ways it does have downballot lag at a very local level, it's one the few left shifting suburban sunbelt counties nationally where we have quite a few example of non-Pres Ds outrunning the top of the ticket. Sinema 2018, Kelly in 2020 and 2022, not to mention Hobbs and Fontes. Even in the state leg there were a few Ds who outran Biden in semi-competative Pheonix suburban seats.

I think Trump has a narrow path to win AZ without Maricopa; the County prolly votes tot he left of the state imo, but as soon as it becomes like Biden + 7 Trump's path to victory becomes nonexistent.

[Spectator]

I think Lean D is fair. Trump could win it if everything is going well for him, but the county is a uniquely terrible fit for him. For the county races, I expect Rs to still sweep all of them since Maricopa is still quite red downballot. The sheriff race will technically go D, but he is basically a Republican who changed party registration to be a Dem since Penzone had to be replaced by a person of the same party.

Tilt D.

You realize this means Arizona is a pure tossup? Maricopa votes only a smidge to the left of the state.

This was true a few years ago, but due to coalition shift Trump can probably afford a 2pt loss, and 2.5 is probably the cutoff now.

Maricopa is quite interesting because while in many ways it does have downballot lag at a very local level, it's one the few left shifting suburban sunbelt counties nationally where we have quite a few example of non-Pres Ds outrunning the top of the ticket. Sinema 2018, Kelly in 2020 and 2022, not to mention Hobbs and Fontes. Even in the state leg there were a few Ds who outran Biden in semi-competative Pheonix suburban seats.

I think Trump has a narrow path to win AZ without Maricopa; the County prolly votes tot he left of the state imo, but as soon as it becomes like Biden + 7 Trump's path to victory becomes nonexistent.

Trump can’t afford more than a 3% loss in Maricopa max. The rest of Arizona isnt that red. Pima is 60% blue, plus the natives.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think Lean D is fair. Trump could win it if everything is going well for him, but the county is a uniquely terrible fit for him. For the county races, I expect Rs to still sweep all of them since Maricopa is still quite red downballot. The sheriff race will technically go D, but he is basically a Republican who changed party registration to be a Dem since Penzone had to be replaced by a person of the same party.

Tilt D.

You realize this means Arizona is a pure tossup? Maricopa votes only a smidge to the left of the state.

This was true a few years ago, but due to coalition shift Trump can probably afford a 2pt loss, and 2.5 is probably the cutoff now.

Maricopa is quite interesting because while in many ways it does have downballot lag at a very local level, it's one the few left shifting suburban sunbelt counties nationally where we have quite a few example of non-Pres Ds outrunning the top of the ticket. Sinema 2018, Kelly in 2020 and 2022, not to mention Hobbs and Fontes. Even in the state leg there were a few Ds who outran Biden in semi-competative Pheonix suburban seats.

I think Trump has a narrow path to win AZ without Maricopa; the County prolly votes tot he left of the state imo, but as soon as it becomes like Biden + 7 Trump's path to victory becomes nonexistent.

Trump can’t afford more than a 3% loss in Maricopa max. The rest of Arizona isnt that red. Pima is 60% blue, plus the natives.

Agree after 3-4% loss it becomes very difficult, but 7% is like when it becomes close to mathematically impossible without some MASSIVE shakeup where Pima is swinging like 15 points right or smtg. A 7% win means Biden is netting well over 100k votes out of Maricopa and there's just nowhere for Trump to make that up.

[TDAS04]

Lean D.