TX (UT/Tyler): Trump +4

[LAKISYLVANIA]

This pollster had an eight point D bias from RV to actual in both 2020 to 2022. Abbott +3 in RV right before the election and Biden +2 RV right before the election. I know plenty of bad R-leaning pollsters get engaged with here, but if they haven't changed their methodology this is almost certainly overrating Biden by quite a bit.

So Trump is on track to win Texas by 12 points?

They're probably closer to the actual result this time around. But the poll has 13% for RFK jr., 6% for West and 3% for Stein. And arguably, Biden only is third among independents, i don't know how independents voted in 2020. But he only wins 17% of the 123 independents who answered the poll. A majority of the 123 independents polled don't back Biden or Trump.

I think polls really struggle with independents and some of the more low-information democratic leaning voters (young people, minority voters, urban demographics).

[kwabbit]

This pollster had an eight point D bias from RV to actual in both 2020 to 2022. Abbott +3 in RV right before the election and Biden +2 RV right before the election. I know plenty of bad R-leaning pollsters get engaged with here, but if they haven't changed their methodology this is almost certainly overrating Biden by quite a bit.

So Trump is on track to win Texas by 12 points?

No, but a Trump +7 YouGov poll is better for Biden than a Trump +4 UT Tyler poll. Trump's probably up by around 10 right now, given the national environment. YouGov did well in TX in 2022 and 2020, especially YouGov/University of Houston. They had Abbott +13 and Trump +5. They have Trump +9 now.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

This pollster had an eight point D bias from RV to actual in both 2020 to 2022. Abbott +3 in RV right before the election and Biden +2 RV right before the election. I know plenty of bad R-leaning pollsters get engaged with here, but if they haven't changed their methodology this is almost certainly overrating Biden by quite a bit.

So Trump is on track to win Texas by 12 points?

No, but a Trump +7 YouGov poll is better for Biden than a Trump +4 UT Tyler poll. Trump's probably up by around 10 right now, given the national environment. YouGov did well in TX in 2022 and 2020, especially YouGov/University of Houston. They had Abbott +13 and Trump +5. They have Trump +9 now.

I think without the independents in the race, Biden would basically also tie Trump in this poll, so a 8 points error would suggest a Trump +8 result.

Like Allred vs Cruz which has no third parties in the races have a tie.

Though again, just like Biden, Allred wins 72% of Democratic respondents (Biden has 71). 39% of independents said not sure (which is the majority). 12% in total voted not sure and 7% voted undecided.

Who do independents lean towards in TX races usually?

[ralstonfan65]

Texas is one of those state where secular trends related to college education and in-migration lead to Biden doing better than expected. He won't win, but I expect the D-trends to cancel out the Hispanic Republican trend.

[2016]

Let's get something straight here: The notion that Biden can win a State like Texas with a 40/56 Job Approval Rating is just WISHCASTING and completely BALONEY in my humbled Opinion!

[super6646]

Lean republican

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean republican

Have you heard of upset bur ALLRED is tied

[Skill and Chance]

Obviously 2 different polling companies with different procedures, but it would be absolutely hilarious if Texas votes to the left of the NPV and Trump wins the election anyway.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Anyone basing their views on polling is stupid, dishonest, or both.

What an irredeemable industry.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Anyone basing their views on polling is stupid, dishonest, or both.

What an irredeemable industry.

TX is bluer than FL

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Anyone basing their views on polling is stupid, dishonest, or both.

What an irredeemable industry.

TX is bluer than FL

It honestly could be this cycle

[President Johnson]

Anyone basing their views on polling is stupid, dishonest, or both.

What an irredeemable industry.

TX is bluer than FL

It honestly could be this cycle

I fully expect this to happen. I think Texas will be anywhere between Trump +3 and Trump +7, while Florida ends up between Trump +8 and Trump +13.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Anyone basing their views on polling is stupid, dishonest, or both.

What an irredeemable industry.

TX is bluer than FL

It honestly could be this cycle

I fully expect this to happen. I think Texas will be anywhere between Trump +3 and Trump +7, while Florida ends up between Trump +8 and Trump +13.

George Sorroa is spending $$$ in TX and we are definitely targeting TX because ALLRED and Cruz admitted he will be tougher to beat than Beto, ALLRED

The reason why Allred is beating expectations, there is no Beto running

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Anyone basing their views on polling is stupid, dishonest, or both.

What an irredeemable industry.

TX is bluer than FL

It honestly could be this cycle

I fully expect this to happen. I think Texas will be anywhere between Trump +3 and Trump +7, while Florida ends up between Trump +8 and Trump +13.

Yeah I could see that

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Of course it's Lean R it's upset potentially

[Devils30]

Well according to the NYT poll, Texas will be 1 point more Democratic than the national vote!

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Well according to the NYT poll, Texas will be 1 point more Democratic than the national vote!

The same poll was Abbott +3 in 2022.

[Devils30]

Well according to the NYT poll, Texas will be 1 point more Democratic than the national vote!

The same poll was Abbott +3 in 2022.

I’m being sarcastic about Texas being Dem leaning.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well according to the NYT poll, Texas will be 1 point more Democratic than the national vote!

The same poll was Abbott +3 in 2022.

I’m being sarcastic about Texas being Dem leaning.

It is D leaning

[pbrower2a]

I don't see Biden winning it or even improving on his 2020 margin but these polls are suggesting it could vote closer to the national average this time if nothing else.

That's roughly 2% better for Joe Biden than in 2024, which is not significant in itself.

Texas' demographics are changing, with Texas becoming more like the USA as a whole. Texas used to straddle 400 electoral votes for a Democrat; it was more like 350 in 2020. Add to this, the Texas GOP is becoming increasingly erratic in administrative conduct.

[emailking]

If you tell me Trump wins Texas by 4 then I'm >90% sure Biden wins the election.