TX (UT/Tyler): Trump +4

[wbrocks67]

Trump (R) 46%
Biden (D) 42%
Someone else 6%
Not sure 5%

Biden approval 40/56 (-16)
Trump fav 44/51 (-8)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20240229_TX_UTTyler.pdf

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Probably Biden's best poll in months.

[President Johnson]

So polls want to tell us Biden is doing better in Texas than Michigan, Pennsylvania and Georgia? C'mon, man.

[wbrocks67]

So polls want to tell us Biden is doing better in Texas than Michigan, Pennsylvania and Georgia? C'mon, man.

It's wild that the average of the most recent 4 TX polls is Trump +7, while we're getting closer to that average (or exceeding it) in NC, GA, AZ, NV. Something is clearly off here.

Should note though that, like PA, the majority of recent TX polls are from in-state pollsters. Only 1 from Emerson (and none from Morning Consult, etc.)

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

For how well Trump is polling nationally and in other swing states, his performance in Texas so far has been pretty underwhelming and doesn't exactly line up with a clear Trump win.

Blexas might be closer to happening than we think it is (I still think Trump carries it).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

See I told you TX was in play

[wnwnwn]

Young latinos?

[GAinDC]

Nay: Blorgia

Slay: Blexas

[Dave Hedgehog]

I don't see Biden winning it or even improving on his 2020 margin but these polls are suggesting it could vote closer to the national average this time if nothing else.

[DrScholl]

Texas can flip. Now it's not an easy flip by any means because of the large number of rural and exburban counties, but it's still on the board.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I burst out laughing if Hogan wins and Ds keep the S if ALLRED wins

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Texas can flip. Now it's not an easy flip by any means because of the large number of rural and exburban counties, but it's still on the board.

I doubt it can. Trump +6-7 imo

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Texas can flip. Now it's not an easy flip by any means because of the large number of rural and exburban counties, but it's still on the board.

I doubt it can. Trump +6-7 imo

Lol can you believe in upsets I already put it on my map

[Progressive Pessimist]

Texas isn't flipping this year, but it may move left like this.

[DrScholl]

Texas can flip. Now it's not an easy flip by any means because of the large number of rural and exburban counties, but it's still on the board.

I doubt it can. Trump +6-7 imo

Ok. I keep telling you all about these predictions, but have at it.

[Cyrusman]

Just keep in mind their last poll for 2022 governor race was Abbot + 3 for RV

[Dan the Roman]

Texas is a state like North Carolina(though to a lesser degree than Florida) where the demographic trends say one thing, but the voter registration statistics and activity on the ground says entirely another.

From 35,000 feet it has trends which should help Democrats,  but in practice Democrats are quite poor at organizing those groups, getting them registered and then engaging them to vote.

By contrast, Republican migrants are much more likely to be politically active, register and turnout.

Part of this is that suburban/excurban political organization built around churches, schools and local affairs are much easier for new residents to engage with than gigantic preexisting urban political machines which have no incentive or desire to integrate newcomers.  The result is that we see a massive push every four years by a few local officials in Harris County and Dallas to mobilize voters, usually pitting their legally creative tactics against the state, but no effort to engage those voters in municipal or local politics between elections. In short, the Texas Democratic party has started from scratch every four years for the past few decades.

There were some efforts to improve this, it would be wise to expect Texas, like North Carolina and Florida, where the Democrats have varying degrees of this issue, to vote a few percentage points to the right of where they "should " given demographics.

So no I don't think the numbers are in place for Democrats. The numbers probably have to be in place for them to win by 4 or 5 before they get close.

Democrats are organizationally in worse shape in Texas in 2024 than in 2020 by a large margin

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Well Texas definitely will trend left relative to nation, and it's just a matter of time before it flips blue, it possibly voting to the left in NC, GA, AZ, MI in case of a Trump win isn't that far-fetched as some make us want to believe, since i don't think Trump can really improve a lot here, and the average still suggests a +6/+7 win.

But Texas is changing and that's good news for the Democrats.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Texas isn't flipping this year

Well this poll isn't suggesting that, it's still a Trump +4 win and i don't think we've seen a poll suggesting Biden would win TX so far yet.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TX is turning blue

[TodayJunior]

Texas 2024 = Colorado 2004. They’re going to have to really fight tooth and nail to hold.

[robocop]

Short answer......

Texas is much more likely to flip than Ohio or Iowa.

[kwabbit]

This pollster had an eight point D bias from RV to actual in both 2020 to 2022. Abbott +3 in RV right before the election and Biden +2 RV right before the election. I know plenty of bad R-leaning pollsters get engaged with here, but if they haven't changed their methodology this is almost certainly overrating Biden by quite a bit.

[Tekken_Guy]

This pollster had an eight point D bias from RV to actual in both 2020 to 2022. Abbott +3 in RV right before the election and Biden +2 RV right before the election. I know plenty of bad R-leaning pollsters get engaged with here, but if they haven't changed their methodology this is almost certainly overrating Biden by quite a bit.

So Trump is on track to win Texas by 12 points?

[Sir Mohamed]

Good poll overall, though Biden is only at 42%. I think he'll end up between 44% and 47% in the end, while Trump finishes in the 49-53% range.