CA (Emerson): Biden +74, Trump +58

[wbrocks67]

Biden 80%
Phillips 6%
Undecided 14%

Trump 75%
Haley 17%
Undecided 9%

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/california-2024-u-s-senate-poll-schiff-28-garvey-20-porter-17-17-undecided/

[Agafin]

Wonder if Trump will be overestimated again. Haley has had no time to campaign in the Super Tuesday states (not that it would've been physically or financially possible to do much campaigning in California anyway) so maybe she will not get as many late deciders here. Still, I don't see her getting less than 20% of the vote.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It appears that any minor tension in the Democratic primary is over. Phillips will continue underperforming polls.

Now, will Haley continue doing slightly better, and Trump slightly worse? That's all we have to cling to this season!

[Skill and Chance]

Wonder if Trump will be overestimated again. Haley has had no time to campaign in the Super Tuesday states (not that it would've been physically or financially possible to do much campaigning in California anyway) so maybe she will not get as many late deciders here. Still, I don't see her getting less than 20% of the vote.

California likely isn't Haley's best chance as Trump does quite well with Latin R's.  The most plausible Haley upside surprise would be Virginia being close.

[DrScholl]

The shifts in registration are a major problem for Haley. The GOP made it where only registered Republicans can vote in the primary so independents would have to change their registration to Republican to vote in the primary. The registered Republicans who are left on the books are far more right-wing than ever before.

[President Johnson]

Biden in disarray

[Vosem]

Wonder if Trump will be overestimated again. Haley has had no time to campaign in the Super Tuesday states (not that it would've been physically or financially possible to do much campaigning in California anyway) so maybe she will not get as many late deciders here. Still, I don't see her getting less than 20% of the vote.

California likely isn't Haley's best chance as Trump does quite well with Latin R's.  The most plausible Haley upside surprise would be Virginia being close.

If Haley wants a story to remain in the GOP's good graces, then a perfectly reasonable one would be "it was all to get high turnout for the Top Two California primary"; particularly if Garvey makes it to the next round (which seems likely) or if the GOP gets one or two unlikely Top Two victories, she can drop out in relative honor, since no other state really has a system quite like California's.

Of course that would require her focusing her campaign on California (and probably specifically SoCal) in the remaining time, and also the purpose of her campaign being to help the current-era GOP, which is sort of unclear. I don't think she can win California (...maybe she can come within 48 points instead of 58), but I think she can at least find a justification for herself there.

[The Mikado]

Following our preexisting "Trump gets right about the % he's polling at but gets essentially no undecideds" I wouldn't be surprised if Trump 75, Haley 17 turns into something like Trump 73, Haley 25 next Tuesday and people go "Wow, Haley really outperformed!"

[Eraserhead]

Who is actually on the Democratic ballot? I would think Williamson should easily beat Phillips here.

[Aurelius2]

Wonder if Trump will be overestimated again. Haley has had no time to campaign in the Super Tuesday states (not that it would've been physically or financially possible to do much campaigning in California anyway) so maybe she will not get as many late deciders here. Still, I don't see her getting less than 20% of the vote.

California likely isn't Haley's best chance as Trump does quite well with Latin R's.  The most plausible Haley upside surprise would be Virginia being close.

If Haley wants a story to remain in the GOP's good graces, then a perfectly reasonable one would be "it was all to get high turnout for the Top Two California primary"; particularly if Garvey makes it to the next round (which seems likely) or if the GOP gets one or two unlikely Top Two victories, she can drop out in relative honor, since no other state really has a system quite like California's.

Of course that would require her focusing her campaign on California (and probably specifically SoCal) in the remaining time, and also the purpose of her campaign being to help the current-era GOP, which is sort of unclear. I don't think she can win California (...maybe she can come within 48 points instead of 58), but I think she can at least find a justification for herself there.

I think there would be something to this if Dem vs GOP races in California weren't tantamount to election for the Dem. If anything, Dem vs Dem races are better for us (at least for national-level races) because it forces the party to spend money cannibalizing itself.