Rate the chances of the following things happening (February 2024)

[Tekken_Guy]

-Biden wins the election
-Trump wins the election
-Another Democrat wins the election
-Another Republican wins the election
-A third party candidate wins the election

-A Democrat wins the popular vote
-A Republican wins the popular vote
-A third-party candidate wins the popular vote

-The Democratic nominee sweeps the “big six” (AZ/GA/MI/NV/PA/WI)
-The Republican nominee sweeps the “big six”
-Neither candidate sweeps the big six

-The Democrat wins a Trump 2020 state
-The Republican wins a state Biden won by at least 5 points

-The Republicans hold the house
-The Democrats flip the house

-The Republicans flip the senate
-The Democrats hold the senate

-Republicans win a Senate seat in a Biden 2020 state
-Democrats win a Senate seat in a Trump 2020 state

-Trump is convicted of a crime
-Biden has a major health crisis

-Biden is replaced as the nominee
-Trump is replaced as the nominee

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

-Biden wins the election 28%
-Trump wins the election 69%
-Another Democrat wins the election 1%
-Another Republican wins the election 2%
-A third party candidate wins the election 0%

-A Democrat wins the popular vote 56%
-A Republican wins the popular vote 44%
-A third-party candidate wins the popular vote 0%

-The Democratic nominee sweeps the “big six” (AZ/GA/MI/NV/PA/WI) 15%
-The Republican nominee sweeps the “big six” 25%
-Neither candidate sweeps the big six 65%

-The Democrat wins a Trump 2020 state 15%
-The Republican wins a state Biden won by at least 5 points 35%

-The Republicans hold the house 55%
-The Democrats flip the house 45%

-The Republicans flip the senate 95%
-The Democrats hold the senate 5%

-Republicans win a Senate seat in a Biden 2020 state 50%
-Democrats win a Senate seat in a Trump 2020 state 40%

-Trump is convicted of a crime 50%
-Biden has a major health crisis 10%

-Biden is replaced as the nominee 1%
-Trump is replaced as the nominee 1%

[MR DARK BRANDON]

-Biden wins the election 60
-Trump wins the election 40
-Another Democrat wins the election 0
-Another Republican wins the election 0
-A third party candidate wins the election 0

-A Democrat wins the popular vote 70
-A Republican wins the popular vote 30
-A third-party candidate wins the popular vote 0

-The Democratic nominee sweeps the “big six” (AZ/GA/MI/NV/PA/WI) 25
-The Republican nominee sweeps the “big six” 15
-Neither candidate sweeps the big six 55

-The Democrat wins a Trump 2020 state 15
-The Republican wins a state Biden won by at least 5 points 10

-The Republicans hold the house 35
-The Democrats flip the house 65

-The Republicans flip the senate 75
-The Democrats hold the senate 25

-Republicans win a Senate seat in a Biden 2020 state 30
-Democrats win a Senate seat in a Trump 2020 state 55

-Trump is convicted of a crime 50
-Biden has a major health crisis 5

-Biden is replaced as the nominee 0
-Trump is replaced as the nominee 0

[wnwnwn]

Biden wins the election: 51%
-Trump wins the election: 48%
-Another Democrat wins the election 0,5%
-Another Republican wins the election 0,5%
-A third party candidate wins the election 0%

-A Democrat wins the popular vote 90%
-A Republican wins the popular vote 10%
-A third-party candidate wins the popular vote 0%

-The Democratic nominee sweeps the “big six” (AZ/GA/MI/NV/PA/WI) 18%
-The Republican nominee sweeps the “big six” 11%
-Neither candidate sweeps the big six 71%

-The Democrat wins a Trump 2020 state 20%
-The Republican wins a state Biden won by at least 5 points 10%

-The Republicans hold the house 45%
-The Democrats flip the house 55%

-The Republicans flip the senate 58%
-The Democrats hold the senate 42%

-Republicans win a Senate seat in a Biden 2020 state 38%
-Democrats win a Senate seat in a Trump 2020 state 48%

-Trump is convicted of a crime 33%
-Biden has a major health crisis 33%

-Biden is replaced as the nominee 1%
-Trump is replaced as the nominee 1%

[Steve from Lambeth]

Biden/Trump/other victory: 75% - 25% - negligible (Trump up 5% since 09-Feb owing to Hoekstra)

PV victory: 87.5% - 12.5% - negligible

Big Six: No sweep

Trump any% ---> Biden states: 1% (probably NC)
Biden 5% ---> Trump states: 1% (most likely ME-AL, MN, or VA; don't fancy Trump's chances elsewhere much)

House: 55% - 45%
Senate: 60% - 40%

Crossover R senator: 50% (mostly Ohio; maybe MI/WI/AZ/NV - enough possibilities for this to be fifty-fifty)
Crossover D senator: 66% (mostly Tester)

Trump conviction: unlikely; can't put a number on this
Biden crisis: negligible

Candidate swap: not happening