Is Trump a lock to win the general election?

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Would a Biden turnaround in the polls and victory be unprecedented, or has something similar happened before?

Going from trailing by a few points to leading by a few points is what typically happens in elections

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

He’s certainly not a lock, but something very dramatic and unexpected would need to happen for him to not be a large favorite.

I still hold out hope that we might see something unexpected….

[ProudModerate2]

No, but he probably has to either die or Biden has to be replaced with a different Democratic nominee for Trump to lose.

Here you go again.
Like a broken record.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

No, but he probably has to either die or Biden has to be replaced with a different Democratic nominee for Trump to lose.

Here you go again.
Like a broken record.

Polling supports this idea.

[Lief 🗽]

Would a Biden turnaround in the polls and victory be unprecedented, or has something similar happened before?

Have you forgotten 2016 already?

John Kerry was also leading at this point in 2004.

[GeorgiaModerate]

No, but he probably has to either die or Biden has to be replaced with a different Democratic nominee for Trump to lose.

Here you go again.
Like a broken record.

Polling supports this idea.

The RCP average shows Trump up by 2%, 47.1 to 45.1.  2%!!!  That's not even outside the margin of error and it's eight months before the election.  

In February/March 1980, President Jimmy Carter led Ronald Reagan by 29% and 25% in Gallup polls; he led by 6% in the 3-way race with John Anderson.  Source

In March 1992, President George H.W. Bush led Bill Clinton by 19% and Ross Perot by 20%.  Source

In early March 2004, John Kerry led President George W. Bush by 6%.  Source

In late March 2008, John McCain led Barack Obama by 4%.  Source

Quick quiz: what did Carter, GHW Bush, Kerry, and McCain all have in common in those elections?

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Some of you in here are claiming that Trump is "heavily favored" to win right now. Yet, there's no material evidence to support that (outside of bunk polling).

Some of you are just talking and saying anything lol.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Some of you in here are claiming that Trump is "heavily favored" to win right now. Yet, there's no material evidence to support that (outside of bunk polling).

Some of you are just talking and saying anything lol.

Yes, they are either trolling or they don't understand how little predictive value polling has at this point.  Or both; I guess they're not mutually exclusive.

[Lief 🗽]

Trump probably would be “heavily favored” to win if the election were held next Tuesday. But it’s not going to be obviously. I think that’s what’s tripping people up.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Would a Biden turnaround in the polls and victory be unprecedented, or has something similar happened before?

There are polls coming out tied and Trump plus 7 and yes 2016 Hillary lead in most polls and LOST

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Some of you in here are claiming that Trump is "heavily favored" to win right now. Yet, there's no material evidence to support that (outside of bunk polling).

Some of you are just talking and saying anything lol.

Yes, they are either trolling or they don't understand how little predictive value polling has at this point.  Or both; I guess they're not mutually exclusive.

It's mainly Riverwalk he keeps saying we gonna have a D S and a Trump Pred

[MarkD]

No, I think he has hit his ceiling and can go nowhere but down.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Trump probably would be “heavily favored” to win if the election were held next Tuesday. But it’s not going to be obviously. I think that’s what’s tripping people up.

I’m not really basing my assessment on the current polling much at all.
I’m basing is on how it now looks like the election is most likely to play out over the next eight months….again, if there is no dramatic and unexpected change.

In his current physical condition, Biden is more likely to lose ground than to gain it.
And his physical condition is much more likely to further deteriorate than to improve.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump probably would be “heavily favored” to win if the election were held next Tuesday. But it’s not going to be obviously. I think that’s what’s tripping people up.

I’m not really basing my assessment on the current polling much at all.
I’m basing is on how it now looks like the election is most likely to play out over the next eight months….again, if there is no dramatic and unexpected change.

In his current physical condition, Biden is more likely to lose ground than to gain it.
And his physical condition is much more likely to further deteriorate than to improve.

Trump underperforming polls by 7 pts stop being a Doomer, we haven't voted yet

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Who was the last incumbent to have approvals as bad as Biden? Hoover?

Everything is in Trump's favor right now.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Who was the last incumbent to have approvals as bad as Biden? Hoover?

Everything is in Trump's favor right now.

Truman's were slightly lower at this point in his first term.  GHWB was about the same and on the way down.  Carter was in the midst of a mild uptick and was a bit higher at this point, but was lower before and after. 

[oldtimer]

Who was the last incumbent to have approvals as bad as Biden? Hoover?

Everything is in Trump's favor right now.

Not everything, so he's not a lock just the favourite.

There are unknows, like the state of the economy, foreign policy crisis, Biden forced out by his party (growing talk about the Convention from establishment people with inside knowledge) ect ect.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Who was the last incumbent to have approvals as bad as Biden? Hoover?

Everything is in Trump's favor right now.

Not everything, so he's not a lock just the favourite.

There are unknows, like the state of the economy, foreign policy crisis, Biden forced out by his party (growing talk about the Convention from establishment people with inside knowledge) ect ect.

Citation needed, please. 

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Who was the last incumbent to have approvals as bad as Biden? Hoover?

Everything is in Trump's favor right now.

Truman's were slightly lower at this point in his first term.  GHWB was about the same and on the way down.  Carter was in the midst of a mild uptick and was a bit higher at this point, but was lower before and after. 

Truman was also lower atp

[GeorgiaModerate]

Who was the last incumbent to have approvals as bad as Biden? Hoover?

Everything is in Trump's favor right now.

Truman's were slightly lower at this point in his first term.  GHWB was about the same and on the way down.  Carter was in the midst of a mild uptick and was a bit higher at this point, but was lower before and after. 

Truman was also lower atp

Please read the first sentence of my post again.

[oldtimer]

Who was the last incumbent to have approvals as bad as Biden? Hoover?

Everything is in Trump's favor right now.

Not everything, so he's not a lock just the favourite.

There are unknows, like the state of the economy, foreign policy crisis, Biden forced out by his party (growing talk about the Convention from establishment people with inside knowledge) ect ect.

Citation needed, please. 

It was talked amidst the Convention for the 50 years of the Greek Republic:

https://www.kathimerini.gr/politics/562908241/metapoliteysi-50-chronia-meta-live-oi-ergasies-toy-synedrioy/

https://www.ertnews.gr/dimosio-vima/arthrografia/al-papaxelas-sto-ertnews-o-syriza-itan-ena-eykairiako-aitima-ton-kairon-o-kasselakis-paizei-tin-epiviosi-tou-stis-eyroekloges/

Here's a rough translation on the subject the best I can recall:

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" There is a scenario, that is been talked more and more, that just before the Convention the Democrats will announce that Biden is retiring for Health reasons.
If that happens then the election is gifted to Trump.

The 2nd part of the theory is that Harris is going to back off and not be the nominee, it's difficult because that would alienate blacks and women, there is going to be a big problem with the Democrat's coalition."