Is Trump a lock to win the general election?
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April 28, 2024, 08:08:34 PM
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  2024 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, GeorgiaModerate, KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸)
  Is Trump a lock to win the general election?		 « previous next »
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Yes		  
#2
No		  
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Author Topic: Is Trump a lock to win the general election?  (Read 695 times)
I’m not Stu
ERM64man
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« on: February 28, 2024, 07:38:22 PM »
Is Trump guaranteed to win the general election?
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #1 on: February 28, 2024, 07:39:16 PM »
No, and he never has been.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #2 on: February 28, 2024, 07:41:59 PM »
Uhh, no.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #3 on: February 28, 2024, 07:42:55 PM »
No
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #4 on: February 28, 2024, 07:49:26 PM »
Biden can still win. And I can still sprout wings and learn to fly. Doesn't mean those things will happen though.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #5 on: February 28, 2024, 07:49:38 PM »
Let's see...it's 8 months before the election...the polls are within the margin of error...there are a whole bunch of pending situations for Trump...

In short: not just no, but this is an incredibly dumb question.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #6 on: February 28, 2024, 07:50:00 PM »
Quote from: SnowLabrador on February 28, 2024, 07:49:26 PM
Biden can still win. And I can still sprout wings and learn to fly. Doesn't mean those things will happen though.

One of these things is not like the other. 
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #7 on: February 28, 2024, 07:51:51 PM »

That’s the most optimistic you’ve been of Biden ever.

You always move the goalposts.

“October 7th locked up the election for Trump”
“The Hur report locked up the election for Trump”
“SCOTUS locked up the election for Trump”
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The Economy is Getting Worse
riverwalk3
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« Reply #8 on: February 28, 2024, 07:52:49 PM »
No, but he probably has to either die or Biden has to be replaced with a different Democratic nominee for Trump to lose.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #9 on: February 28, 2024, 07:53:58 PM »
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on February 28, 2024, 07:51:51 PM

That’s the most optimistic you’ve been of Biden ever.

You always move the goalposts.

“October 7th locked up the election for Trump”
“The Hur report locked up the election for Trump”
“SCOTUS locked up the election for Trump”

Did you look at the context? What I mean is that Biden winning would be about as likely as me gaining the power of flight spontaneously.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #10 on: February 28, 2024, 07:55:43 PM »
Quote from: SnowLabrador on February 28, 2024, 07:53:58 PM
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on February 28, 2024, 07:51:51 PM

That’s the most optimistic you’ve been of Biden ever.

You always move the goalposts.

“October 7th locked up the election for Trump”
“The Hur report locked up the election for Trump”
“SCOTUS locked up the election for Trump”

Did you look at the context? What I mean is that Biden winning would be about as likely as me gaining the power of flight spontaneously.

Let me ask you this:

If the polls were flipped -- if Biden were a few points ahead on average instead of Trump -- would you then say that Biden was a lock?  Answer yes or no, and explain why.
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The Economy is Getting Worse
riverwalk3
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« Reply #11 on: February 28, 2024, 07:57:02 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on February 28, 2024, 07:55:43 PM
Quote from: SnowLabrador on February 28, 2024, 07:53:58 PM
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on February 28, 2024, 07:51:51 PM

That’s the most optimistic you’ve been of Biden ever.

You always move the goalposts.

“October 7th locked up the election for Trump”
“The Hur report locked up the election for Trump”
“SCOTUS locked up the election for Trump”

Did you look at the context? What I mean is that Biden winning would be about as likely as me gaining the power of flight spontaneously.

Let me ask you this:

If the polls were flipped -- if Biden were a few points ahead on average instead of Trump -- would you then say that Biden was a lock?  Answer yes or no, and explain why.
I would if the party in power was also flipped. Biden has done a horrible job, so he is expected to lose based on fundamentals alone. Polls simply confirm the fundamentals.
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Inmate Trump
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« Reply #12 on: February 28, 2024, 07:57:16 PM »
No one’s a lock, ever.

But Trump is heavily favored right now. Who knows in November.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #13 on: February 28, 2024, 07:57:32 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on February 28, 2024, 07:55:43 PM
Quote from: SnowLabrador on February 28, 2024, 07:53:58 PM
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on February 28, 2024, 07:51:51 PM

That’s the most optimistic you’ve been of Biden ever.

You always move the goalposts.

“October 7th locked up the election for Trump”
“The Hur report locked up the election for Trump”
“SCOTUS locked up the election for Trump”

Did you look at the context? What I mean is that Biden winning would be about as likely as me gaining the power of flight spontaneously.

Let me ask you this:

If the polls were flipped -- if Biden were a few points ahead on average instead of Trump -- would you then say that Biden was a lock?  Answer yes or no, and explain why.

No, because polling tends to underestimate Trump whenever he's on the ballot.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #14 on: February 28, 2024, 07:59:07 PM »
Quote from: SnowLabrador on February 28, 2024, 07:57:32 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on February 28, 2024, 07:55:43 PM
Quote from: SnowLabrador on February 28, 2024, 07:53:58 PM
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on February 28, 2024, 07:51:51 PM

That’s the most optimistic you’ve been of Biden ever.

You always move the goalposts.

“October 7th locked up the election for Trump”
“The Hur report locked up the election for Trump”
“SCOTUS locked up the election for Trump”

Did you look at the context? What I mean is that Biden winning would be about as likely as me gaining the power of flight spontaneously.

Let me ask you this:

If the polls were flipped -- if Biden were a few points ahead on average instead of Trump -- would you then say that Biden was a lock?  Answer yes or no, and explain why.

No, because polling tends to underestimate Trump whenever he's on the ballot.

LMAO!  At least you openly admit your pro-Trump hackery.  Trump's consistently UNDERperformed his polls throughout these primaries.
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The Economy is Getting Worse
riverwalk3
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« Reply #15 on: February 28, 2024, 07:59:54 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on February 28, 2024, 07:59:07 PM
Quote from: SnowLabrador on February 28, 2024, 07:57:32 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on February 28, 2024, 07:55:43 PM
Quote from: SnowLabrador on February 28, 2024, 07:53:58 PM
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on February 28, 2024, 07:51:51 PM

That’s the most optimistic you’ve been of Biden ever.

You always move the goalposts.

“October 7th locked up the election for Trump”
“The Hur report locked up the election for Trump”
“SCOTUS locked up the election for Trump”

Did you look at the context? What I mean is that Biden winning would be about as likely as me gaining the power of flight spontaneously.

Let me ask you this:

If the polls were flipped -- if Biden were a few points ahead on average instead of Trump -- would you then say that Biden was a lock?  Answer yes or no, and explain why.

No, because polling tends to underestimate Trump whenever he's on the ballot.

LMAO!  At least you openly admit your pro-Trump hackery.  Trump's consistently UNDERperformed his polls throughout these primaries.
He underperformed Midwest polls in the 2016 primary too, and went on to outperform them in the general.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #16 on: February 28, 2024, 08:00:12 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on February 28, 2024, 07:59:07 PM
Quote from: SnowLabrador on February 28, 2024, 07:57:32 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on February 28, 2024, 07:55:43 PM
Quote from: SnowLabrador on February 28, 2024, 07:53:58 PM
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on February 28, 2024, 07:51:51 PM

That’s the most optimistic you’ve been of Biden ever.

You always move the goalposts.

“October 7th locked up the election for Trump”
“The Hur report locked up the election for Trump”
“SCOTUS locked up the election for Trump”

Did you look at the context? What I mean is that Biden winning would be about as likely as me gaining the power of flight spontaneously.

Let me ask you this:

If the polls were flipped -- if Biden were a few points ahead on average instead of Trump -- would you then say that Biden was a lock?  Answer yes or no, and explain why.

No, because polling tends to underestimate Trump whenever he's on the ballot.

LMAO!  At least you openly admit your pro-Trump hackery.  Trump's consistently UNDERperformed his polls throughout these primaries.

You can't equate primaries to general elections.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #17 on: February 28, 2024, 08:04:28 PM »
Quote from: SnowLabrador on February 28, 2024, 08:00:12 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on February 28, 2024, 07:59:07 PM
Quote from: SnowLabrador on February 28, 2024, 07:57:32 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on February 28, 2024, 07:55:43 PM
Quote from: SnowLabrador on February 28, 2024, 07:53:58 PM
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on February 28, 2024, 07:51:51 PM

That’s the most optimistic you’ve been of Biden ever.

You always move the goalposts.

“October 7th locked up the election for Trump”
“The Hur report locked up the election for Trump”
“SCOTUS locked up the election for Trump”

Did you look at the context? What I mean is that Biden winning would be about as likely as me gaining the power of flight spontaneously.

Let me ask you this:

If the polls were flipped -- if Biden were a few points ahead on average instead of Trump -- would you then say that Biden was a lock?  Answer yes or no, and explain why.

No, because polling tends to underestimate Trump whenever he's on the ballot.

LMAO!  At least you openly admit your pro-Trump hackery.  Trump's consistently UNDERperformed his polls throughout these primaries.

You can't equate primaries to general elections.

Hmm, let's review your last sentence from the previous post:

"No, because polling tends to underestimate Trump whenever he's on the ballot."

Does anyone see the words primary or general election on there?  No? 

You get called out on some point and you move the goal posts.  It happens time after time.  You doom and concern troll and don't argue in good faith.  You promise to leave if you're wrong, and then don't.  It's just tiresome, and I'm not speaking only for myself here.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #18 on: February 28, 2024, 08:08:57 PM »
No one is a lock 8 months before the election.
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The Economy is Getting Worse
riverwalk3
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« Reply #19 on: February 28, 2024, 08:11:27 PM »
The problem for Biden is that the economy is trending the wrong direction right now.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #20 on: February 28, 2024, 08:12:49 PM »
No, we have to vote
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #21 on: February 28, 2024, 08:15:55 PM »
Quote from: The Economy is Getting Worse on February 28, 2024, 08:11:27 PM
The problem for Biden is that the economy is trending the wrong direction right now.

It's entirely reasonable to say that Biden has problems; I'll be the first to acknowledge that he does.  It's entirely reasonable to say that at this point Trump is probably a slight favorite.  But it's entirely absurd to say that anyone is a lock this far in advance of the election.
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I’m not Stu
ERM64man
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« Reply #22 on: February 28, 2024, 08:17:16 PM »
Would a Biden turnaround in the polls and victory be unprecedented, or has something similar happened before?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #23 on: February 28, 2024, 08:18:22 PM »
Quote from: I’m not Stu on February 28, 2024, 08:17:16 PM
Would a Biden turnaround in the polls and victory be unprecedented, or has something similar happened before?

Have you forgotten 2016 already?
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I’m not Stu
ERM64man
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« Reply #24 on: February 28, 2024, 08:20:25 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on February 28, 2024, 08:18:22 PM
Quote from: I’m not Stu on February 28, 2024, 08:17:16 PM
Would a Biden turnaround in the polls and victory be unprecedented, or has something similar happened before?

Have you forgotten 2016 already?
Yes. Will the economy matter for this election? What if the economy improves?
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