Why didn’t New York pass another Hochulmander?

[Tekken_Guy]

Why do you think New York didn’t pass another Hochulmander?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Short version: Political climate change.
Long version: (this exquisite post)

The national climate has also shifted from 2022. It genuinely looked like the GOP would have trifectas in Arizona and Wisconsin, and possibly even Pennsylvania, and a Senate majority that would block every Biden judicial nomination.

The midterms seem to have caused the fever to break with everyone. Yes North Carolina played hardball as both parties do in that state(the lame-duck D justices were retroactively invalidating referendums on the basis they were passed by legislatures elected on maps they had subsequently struck down but which had been upheld by the then-court) but even there they kept four Biden seats rather than going for 11-3 or 12-2 which would have been closer to the Hochulmander. Republicans in Ohio, with a Court majority in hand, could have gone hard for 12-3, but they chose to lock in what turned out to be a relatively soft gerrymander. Meanwhile, SCOTUS paved the way for D gains in Alabama and Louisiana, and it looks like Ds may get parity in Wisconsin.

In short, the Hochulmander is really a relic of a specific national climate in late 2021 and early 2022. One of relentless Republican advance and existential Democratic panic. It is, to put it simply, embarrassing in the same way that a 12-3 or 13-2 map would have been in Ohio. Or impeaching Justices would have been in WI.

This isn't a "deal" but the relative restraint of Republican actors in other states, by contributing to the lower temperature nationally, likely influenced NY Democrats. I suspect if the WI legislature had decided to trigger a constitutional crisis by impeaching the court and/or governor this may have gone differently.

The NY Courts are also part of the greater northeastern culture of soft merit selection which means they are very aware of climate. Rowen Wilson's December decision is much more conciliatory than his early 2022 dissent going out of his way to state that he is in no way reversing the findings of the previous majority on the merits, but merely demanding a legal process. At the end of which any product will need to comply with the constitution.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Laziness and stupidity

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

It likely wouldn't survive a court challenge, Republicans signaled they wouldn't challenge this one, and I think NY Dems feel as if 2024 will be a return to normal and 2022 was a bit of a fluke there.

Also, Democrats are a bit more principled when it comes to redistricting usually. There are some shameless examples like Illinois or the OG Hochulmander, but it's really Republicans who are far worse.

[SilverStar]

It likely wouldn't survive a court challenge, Republicans signaled they wouldn't challenge this one, and I think NY Dems feel as if 2024 will be a return to normal and 2022 was a bit of a fluke there.

Also, Democrats are a bit more principled when it comes to redistricting usually. There are some shameless examples like Illinois or the OG Hochulmander, but it's really Republicans who are far worse.

It would survive,the Court is 4-3 Hack.
NY Democrats are stupid.
And even if they wanted a fair map they should've just kept the current one.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It likely wouldn't survive a court challenge, Republicans signaled they wouldn't challenge this one, and I think NY Dems feel as if 2024 will be a return to normal and 2022 was a bit of a fluke there.

Also, Democrats are a bit more principled when it comes to redistricting usually. There are some shameless examples like Illinois or the OG Hochulmander, but it's really Republicans who are far worse.

It would survive,the Court is 4-3 Hack.
NY Democrats are stupid.
And even if they wanted a fair map they should've just kept the current one.

Yeah this is what frustrates me. I've grown to like the current map quite a bit - very coherent and compact. At least Dems didn't try to mess around with the NYC seats just to appease D incumbents. Making these small changes that just make the map look uglier to try and appease a few incumbents around the margins is just frustrating.

I also think Ds feel a bit less eager to gerrymander NY after redistricting wins in places like AL and LA combined with more Dems doing better than expected in 2022 House.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

NY Dems are victims of fetal alcohol syndrome.

[Epaminondas]

Legislating in a one-party state addles the brain.
As long as incumbents get their cushy safe seats, why should they care if thousands of Ukrainians die in atrocious conditions due the House GOP twiddling their thumbs for another 2-6 years.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

It likely wouldn't survive a court challenge, Republicans signaled they wouldn't challenge this one, and I think NY Dems feel as if 2024 will be a return to normal and 2022 was a bit of a fluke there.

Also, Democrats are a bit more principled when it comes to redistricting usually. There are some shameless examples like Illinois or the OG Hochulmander, but it's really Republicans who are far worse.

Sorry but no. New Mexico, Oregon, New Jersey and Nevada were all democratic gerrymanders. Maryland tried one it was just struck down by the courts. Where democrats had full control in 2022 they were extremely aggressive. This was completely shocking

[Dan the Roman]

It likely wouldn't survive a court challenge, Republicans signaled they wouldn't challenge this one, and I think NY Dems feel as if 2024 will be a return to normal and 2022 was a bit of a fluke there.

Also, Democrats are a bit more principled when it comes to redistricting usually. There are some shameless examples like Illinois or the OG Hochulmander, but it's really Republicans who are far worse.

Sorry but no. New Mexico, Oregon, New Jersey and Nevada were all democratic gerrymanders. Maryland tried one it was just struck down by the courts. Where democrats had full control in 2022 they were extremely aggressive. This was completely shocking

It would have been in 2022. Less so 2023/24. Evers signed his own maps in WI despite them being more favorable for Republicans than other options. Ohio reached "deals" on everything too.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

It likely wouldn't survive a court challenge, Republicans signaled they wouldn't challenge this one, and I think NY Dems feel as if 2024 will be a return to normal and 2022 was a bit of a fluke there.

Also, Democrats are a bit more principled when it comes to redistricting usually. There are some shameless examples like Illinois or the OG Hochulmander, but it's really Republicans who are far worse.

Sorry but no. New Mexico, Oregon, New Jersey and Nevada were all democratic gerrymanders. Maryland tried one it was just struck down by the courts. Where democrats had full control in 2022 they were extremely aggressive. This was completely shocking

It would have been in 2022. Less so 2023/24. Evers signed his own maps in WI despite them being more favorable for Republicans than other options. Ohio reached "deals" on everything too.

Ohio did not.  Democrats strategically withdrew their lawsuit when a pro-Republican gerrymandering majority took over the State Supreme Court.  There is a Democratic-backed Michigan-style IRC to redraw congressional and legislative maps prior to the 2026 elections.  If anything, the fight in Ohio significantly escalated post-2022

[SilverStar]

It likely wouldn't survive a court challenge, Republicans signaled they wouldn't challenge this one, and I think NY Dems feel as if 2024 will be a return to normal and 2022 was a bit of a fluke there.

Also, Democrats are a bit more principled when it comes to redistricting usually. There are some shameless examples like Illinois or the OG Hochulmander, but it's really Republicans who are far worse.

Sorry but no. New Mexico, Oregon, New Jersey and Nevada were all democratic gerrymanders. Maryland tried one it was just struck down by the courts. Where democrats had full control in 2022 they were extremely aggressive. This was completely shocking

It would have been in 2022. Less so 2023/24. Evers signed his own maps in WI despite them being more favorable for Republicans than other options. Ohio reached "deals" on everything too.

Ohio did not.  Democrats strategically withdrew their lawsuit when a pro-Republican gerrymandering majority took over the State Supreme Court.  There is a Democratic-backed Michigan-style IRC to redraw congressional and legislative maps prior to the 2026 elections.  If anything, the fight in Ohio significantly escalated post-2022

They did for State Legislatures

[Skill and Chance]

Enough Democrats (though not all) are actually sincere about this issue.  See also: VA legislative Dems agreeing to pass the redistricting commission amendment a second time after they took control even though they would have controlled map drawing under the old rules.

There's a similar situation where enough Republicans sincerely believe in "leave it to the states" that they don't have the votes to interfere federally on a lot of issues.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Enough Democrats (though not all) are actually sincere about this issue.  See also: VA legislative Dems agreeing to pass the redistricting commission amendment a second time after they took control even though they would have controlled map drawing under the old rules.

There's a similar situation where enough Republicans sincerely believe in "leave it to the states" that they don't have the votes to interfere federally on a lot of issues.

But why did they waste time appealing it if they didn't want to be aggressive?

[Gass3268]

Enough Democrats (though not all) are actually sincere about this issue.  See also: VA legislative Dems agreeing to pass the redistricting commission amendment a second time after they took control even though they would have controlled map drawing under the old rules.

There's a similar situation where enough Republicans sincerely believe in "leave it to the states" that they don't have the votes to interfere federally on a lot of issues.

But why did they waste time appealing it if they didn't want to be aggressive?

Incumbent protection

[Roll Roons]

Enough Democrats (though not all) are actually sincere about this issue.  See also: VA legislative Dems agreeing to pass the redistricting commission amendment a second time after they took control even though they would have controlled map drawing under the old rules.

There's a similar situation where enough Republicans sincerely believe in "leave it to the states" that they don't have the votes to interfere federally on a lot of issues.

But why did they waste time appealing it if they didn't want to be aggressive?

Incumbent protection

But aside from Ryan, Suozzi and perhaps Morelle and Tonko in a 2010-type wave, none of their incumbents were even remotely vulnerable in a general.

[Smash255]

The way the court worded the ruling when they overturned the Special Master might have played a roll.   Keep in mind the Court ruling didn't give the Legislature the right to do whatever they wanted with redistricting.   It stated it should go back to the IRC and done within the 2014 law, not drawn by the courts.   While an argument can be made they went beyond the 2% rule, they largely stayed within the confines of the 2014 law.   My guess is they felt making small changes and giving them a little bit of an advantage here and there was better than risking getting it overturned and not being able to even make small changes to the IRC map.

[Dan the Roman]

The way the court worded the ruling when they overturned the Special Master might have played a roll.   Keep in mind the Court ruling didn't give the Legislature the right to do whatever they wanted with redistricting.   It stated it should go back to the IRC and done within the 2014 law, not drawn by the courts.   While an argument can be made they went beyond the 2% rule, they largely stayed within the confines of the 2014 law.   My guess is they felt making small changes and giving them a little bit of an advantage here and there was better than risking getting it overturned and not being able to even make small changes to the IRC map.

The 2% law was a problem because their options were ignoring its clear letter, or repealing it the same day or week they passed a map.

The "compromise" was similar to the Ohio legislative maps. The majority party offered the largely powerless minority party concessions that did not threaten the majority's core interests in exchange for the minority endorsing an otherwise illegal map as legal. The latter would provide cover for a court to then cite the minority's bipartisan endorsement as evidence the map could not possibly have been drawn with partisan intent.

This requires both sides to be very aware of where they stood. In Ohio, Democrats concluded that they had no chance to control the State Supreme Court for the next decade, and therefore their leverage was giving solace to the Justices' self-respect. It wasn't much, but they got more State Senators and State Representatives from the deal than they currently hold or held much of the last decade. They traded that for being able to gain seats when they were in no position to get more.

Republicans accepted that Democrats needed

1. Protection of all incumbents
2. A Net gain in the 2023-2024 redistricting cycle nationally

And conceded all of it. In exchange for things Democrats would find convenient

1. Legal certainty about the map
2. Providing a reserve to leadership/Hochul on anything they will need in the event they have issues with the left
3. The self-respect of members of the Court of Appeals who probably really didn't want to have to justify a totally hackish decision(upholding a map passed within 24hrs of reversing the 2% rule with an extremely incriminating paper trail) even if gun to the head a number would have

They got the Democrats to concede things that were nice but not vital

1. Maximizing the number of Democratic seats at the expense of leaving much of Long Island, Staten Island and other swing areas in the state legislature, feeling unrepresented and identifying the Democratic party with the sort of urban progressive who would be in those seats if drawn into the city
2. Marginally increasing Jefferies chances of having a 2-seat majority at the cost of gutting the influence of the NY members in the GOP caucus, with it unclear they were either necessary or a majority within that margin would help the state much

[Skill and Chance]

Enough Democrats (though not all) are actually sincere about this issue.  See also: VA legislative Dems agreeing to pass the redistricting commission amendment a second time after they took control even though they would have controlled map drawing under the old rules.

There's a similar situation where enough Republicans sincerely believe in "leave it to the states" that they don't have the votes to interfere federally on a lot of issues.

But why did they waste time appealing it if they didn't want to be aggressive?

I think there was a disconnect between how aggressive the activist legal left wanted to be, what the court actually ruled, and what the legislators whose votes were decisive in each chamber wanted.  The interest groups bringing/funding the case were swinging for the fences, likely hoping for a ruling reinstating the Hochulmander for the decade.  The court obviously didn't go that far, and I'm not sure there were ever the votes in the legislature to pass a similarly aggressive map after a court decision that required additional legislative action.  Finally, 2022 likely scared a lot of Dem incumbents in NY.  This is fundamentally different from the situation in FL and OH, where recent election results only validated the GOP decision to swing for the legal fences or NC where the court overseeing the process was literally controlled by partisan elected Republicans. 

[Vosem]

2. A Net gain in the 2023-2024 redistricting cycle nationally

Pending resolution in things like Wisconsin, I don't think they got this, though. Notionally, 4 seats have flipped from D-in-2022 to R-in-2022 (all in North Carolina, including NC-1), while only 3 seats flipped from R-in-2022 to D-in-2022 (the ones in Alabama and Louisiana, and also the Syracuse seat held by Brandon Williams). Suozzi was not shored up by so much that Zimmerman '22 would have won the new seat.

Presidentially this doesn't work either: there are four new Trump seats (three in North Carolina, this time excluding NC-1, along with the redrawn LaLota seat on Long Island) but only two new Biden seats (the black seats in Alabama and Louisiana). The median House seat barely shifted at all (from Biden+2.1, in MI-8, held by Dan Kildee, to Biden+1.9, in VA-2, held by Jen Kiggans), but it shifted very slightly rightwards.

[Tekken_Guy]

Another theory is that Simcha Felder, a transactional Orthodox Jew who’s ran on both parties’ lines but is nominally a Democrat, killed the Hochulmander. He caucuses with the Democrats because they’re always the party in power in NY but might favor the GOP nationally nowadays because of Democrats’ leftward turn on Israel.

[Gass3268]

ILDP > NYDP

[Vosem]

Another theory is that Simcha Felder, a transactional Orthodox Jew who’s ran on both parties’ lines but is nominally a Democrat, killed the Hochulmander. He caucuses with the Democrats because they’re always the party in power in NY but might favor the GOP nationally nowadays because of Democrats’ leftward turn on Israel.

Felder favors the GOP, period (he caucused with them so long as they had the majority, and has promised that if control of the state Senate were to come down to him he would caucus with the GOP); he just gets elected on the Democratic line. In general -- and not just in the Orthodox Jewish community -- the New York Democratic Party still has a fringe of actually-right-wing members who don't support the national Democratic party and are literal DINOs; besides Felder there are still formerly-IDC staffers.