How does the uncommitted Dem vote break in the general in 2024?

[Tekken_Guy]

How does the uncommitted Dem vote in MI break in the general in 2024?

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Maybe 60-15

[Progressive Pessimist]

It will depend on the state of the Gaza conflict.

If there is a peaceful resolution that lasts, Biden will probably win most of them back, even if begrudgingly. I'm more confident they won't back Trump. However, some percentage are likely not going to be won back at all and will either sit out the election or go third party.

Gun to my head: 75-25.

[rsharpe54]

From Nate Rakich of 538. (Could Arab American and Muslim voters cost Biden the 2024 election?)

" So both groups were pretty Democratic, but not uniformly so. And interestingly, both of them were already trending toward Republicans before this year. According to CAIR, in 2016, Muslims supported former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton over Trump 74 percent to 13 percent. And according to Zogby Analytics/the Arab American Institute, in 2016, Arab Americans identified with Democrats over Republicans by a 26-percentage-point margin; by 2020, that Democratic edge was down to 8 points."


I dont think they will btreak for the Dems at all.

[DS0816]

How does the uncommitted Dem vote in MI break in the general in 2024?

I am not totally certain.

The total votes cast—in Michigan—combining both the 2024 Republican and Democratic presidential primaries were about one-third the total votes cast from the state for 2020 U.S. President.

I think that +100k-plus Uncommitted votes, with the 2024 Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary, should be kept in mind as the primary; for the moment. And then imagine it expanding in the general election. I am not certain how much that would really add up to if that would occur in a general election. (I considered doubling it, at the least, but also tripling it.)

In 2020, the statewide raw-vote margin was Democratic +154,188. There were 5,547,186 votes cast for U.S. President in Michigan. (This is according to Wikipedia.) Every, say, +55k-plus in raw-vote margin was carriage of the state in increments of +1 percentage point. I think Election 2024 will increase. And I would suppose, in the state, every +56k-plus in increments of +1 percentage point.

My feeling, here in 2024, is a Republican pickup for U.S. President with the U.S. Popular Vote at R+3. Flipping and carrying Michigan would be a minimum of +4 with a raw-vote margin nearly +225k. Win by +5 and it is +280k. Following the 2020 outcome of D+2.78 and +154,188 raw votes in margin, that would be a shift in raw vote in excess of R+375k, perhaps R+400k, in raw votes.

All of this adds up in numerous ways.

[SnowLabrador]

70-25-5 in favor of Biden, third parties, and Trump. But that's probably not enough for him to carry Michigan once more. If I had to guess, I think Biden needs virtually all of these voters.

[walleye26]

I’m thinking about 60% Biden, 25% don’t vote, and 15% go third party.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Are we talking about how the ones who vote in November break, or what outcome of how all 100k is?

I'd say Biden probably wins 60/65% of those who vote in November, but I think a good chunk of the uncommitted crowd will sit the general election out, probably 20-30%.