How do you feel about Biden’s chances in MI after tonight?

[Spectator]

As they did in 2022, I think pollsters are over correcting from 2020/24 to find missing Trump voters. I do think Trump is very narrowly favored, but it’s probably nowhere near as pronounced as the polls would have you believe.

[wbrocks67]

Honestly, a bit better. Uncommitted was pretty overblown, and Biden still got more votes than Trump did in Dearborn overall.

Biden's performance in most of the other areas like Detroit was solid, and Uncommitted barely getting 15-17% in even college areas doesn't strike me as big of a deal for Biden/young voters as people's narrative wants it to be. There's caveats given turnout, etc. but still - this again was the perfect vehicle for people who were the most upset to show up and say it. If they couldn't be bothered to do even that, then it may not be as animating of an issue for some as some people make it out to be.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Worse. Looking at predictions in the thread, Biden underperformed while Trump outperformed expectations.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Much more optimistic.  He's going to lose a few thousand voters in Dearborn, but doesn't seem like there was much of a statement to be made by the rest of the state.  Ultimately the Arab-American voters of Dearborn, MI need to realize that demanding a major party nominee side with Hamas is simply not going to work, it is not a position that any political candidate is going to take.  They can either engage in politics rationally or take their ball and go home, but nobody is going to pander to them, and if they band together to refuse to vote for Biden over his lack of support for Hamas, they are just going to be seen as some fringey group like like the Fundamentalist Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints where they're not gettable voters because neither party is interested in signing their list of idiosyncratic demands.

They aren't wanting Democrats to side with Hamas. They don't want Israel to kill so many civilans. 30k dead, 2/3rds women and children. This isn't a fringe position. I watched Seth Meyers and Jon Stewart last night, and both men asked what the US could do to have Israel be more careful about civilian Palestinian deaths. 10 years ago, this would not have been asked on TV by mainstream journalists

The rate of civilian deaths by day has dropped significantly over the last two months.  I don't know if U.S. pressure led to this, but certainly Biden has been applying that pressure.

Biden has also been working to negotiate a ceasefire.  Hamas just rejected another one today.  Voters are demanding Biden get a ceasefire, and Biden is trying to.  They should try protesting Hamas for not accepting it.

Ultimately we have a motte-and-bailey situation where a lot of these people say they want Biden to do things he's already doing, but then when you scratch even just a bit at the surface, what they really want is for Israel to unilaterally end the war without any conditions.  Which is exactly the same thing Hamas wants, because that means Hamas gets to keep their hostages forever and stay in power in Gaza forever.  They probably even want Israel to pay to rebuild Gaza too -- money that would flow directly into Hamas's pockets if Hamas stays in power.

So yes, they want Democrats to side with Hamas.  Many Democratic voters may just be repeating slogans and phrases they heard online or in the media without really thinking about what they mean, so they don't realize this.  I would wager many more genuinely think they are demanding that Biden start negotiating a ceasefire and pushing Israel to be nicer, because they're too ignorant to know that he's already doing this.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Better TBH- Trump underperformed the polls vs. Haley and the whole uncommitted thing looked like a tempest in a teapot outside of a couple specific townships that also protest voted for Bernie in the past.

Strange how the narrative changed so fast even though uncommitted only dropped from 16 to 13.

[wbrocks67]

Better TBH- Trump underperformed the polls vs. Haley and the whole uncommitted thing looked like a tempest in a teapot outside of a couple specific townships that also protest voted for Bernie in the past.

Strange how the narrative changed so fast even though uncommitted only dropped from 16 to 13.

I mean most people had a 15% threshold, especially for delegates, so the difference between 16 and 13 is not insignificant

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Better TBH- Trump underperformed the polls vs. Haley and the whole uncommitted thing looked like a tempest in a teapot outside of a couple specific townships that also protest voted for Bernie in the past.

Strange how the narrative changed so fast even though uncommitted only dropped from 16 to 13.

I mean most people had a 15% threshold, especially for delegates, so the difference between 16 and 13 is not insignificant

Biden will win the primary anyway. Most people didn’t expect Biden to only get 81%. Whereas tons of people expected Haley to get over 30.

[Pres Mike]

Much more optimistic.  He's going to lose a few thousand voters in Dearborn, but doesn't seem like there was much of a statement to be made by the rest of the state.  Ultimately the Arab-American voters of Dearborn, MI need to realize that demanding a major party nominee side with Hamas is simply not going to work, it is not a position that any political candidate is going to take.  They can either engage in politics rationally or take their ball and go home, but nobody is going to pander to them, and if they band together to refuse to vote for Biden over his lack of support for Hamas, they are just going to be seen as some fringey group like like the Fundamentalist Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints where they're not gettable voters because neither party is interested in signing their list of idiosyncratic demands.

They aren't wanting Democrats to side with Hamas. They don't want Israel to kill so many civilans. 30k dead, 2/3rds women and children. This isn't a fringe position. I watched Seth Meyers and Jon Stewart last night, and both men asked what the US could do to have Israel be more careful about civilian Palestinian deaths. 10 years ago, this would not have been asked on TV by mainstream journalists

The rate of civilian deaths by day has dropped significantly over the last two months.  I don't know if U.S. pressure led to this, but certainly Biden has been applying that pressure.

Biden has also been working to negotiate a ceasefire.  Hamas just rejected another one today.  Voters are demanding Biden get a ceasefire, and Biden is trying to.  They should try protesting Hamas for not accepting it.

Ultimately we have a motte-and-bailey situation where a lot of these people say they want Biden to do things he's already doing, but then when you scratch even just a bit at the surface, what they really want is for Israel to unilaterally end the war without any conditions.  Which is exactly the same thing Hamas wants, because that means Hamas gets to keep their hostages forever and stay in power in Gaza forever.  They probably even want Israel to pay to rebuild Gaza too -- money that would flow directly into Hamas's pockets if Hamas stays in power.

So yes, they want Democrats to side with Hamas.  Many Democratic voters may just be repeating slogans and phrases they heard online or in the media without really thinking about what they mean, so they don't realize this.  I would wager many more genuinely think they are demanding that Biden start negotiating a ceasefire and pushing Israel to be nicer, because they're too ignorant to know that he's already doing this.

Yes, I know President Biden has been applying pressure on Israel and working hard towards a ceasefire. I am a proud supporter of President Biden and look forward to voting for him in November. I also happen to be a Palestinian American

The protestors in America do want the war to end permeantly. They want the hostages released. I agree that most protestors haven't put too much thought into the fate of Hamas. The best result would be a deal that allows Hamas fighters to flee to a third world nation like the cowards they are and for the internationally recognized PA to lead the Gaza Strip

[wbrocks67]

Better TBH- Trump underperformed the polls vs. Haley and the whole uncommitted thing looked like a tempest in a teapot outside of a couple specific townships that also protest voted for Bernie in the past.

Strange how the narrative changed so fast even though uncommitted only dropped from 16 to 13.

I mean most people had a 15% threshold, especially for delegates, so the difference between 16 and 13 is not insignificant

Biden will win the primary anyway. Most people didn’t expect Biden to only get 81%. Whereas tons of people expected Haley to get over 30.

Actually most people did expect Biden to get around 81 - most had him in the 80-84 range

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Better TBH- Trump underperformed the polls vs. Haley and the whole uncommitted thing looked like a tempest in a teapot outside of a couple specific townships that also protest voted for Bernie in the past.

Strange how the narrative changed so fast even though uncommitted only dropped from 16 to 13.

I mean most people had a 15% threshold, especially for delegates, so the difference between 16 and 13 is not insignificant

Biden will win the primary anyway. Most people didn’t expect Biden to only get 81%. Whereas tons of people expected Haley to get over 30.

Actually most people did expect Biden to get around 81 - most had him in the 80-84 range

I saw 81-87 as the range in predictions. Still an underperformances. Some had Haley getting almost 40% of the vote and few had her at 26%.

[pbrower2a]

President Biden wlll win Michigan. He will make appearances at union functions on Labor Day. Unions turn out the ote for Democrats in Michigan.President Biden has been as good a friend toorganized labor as ay President since FDR, and that will not change. Trump has vilified "radical Islam" while failing to recognize the difference between "radical Islam" outside America with the more moderate Islam sympathetic with Amerian institutions.

Trump is a lear threat to "moderate" Islam, and that will hurt him in Mihigan. President Biden is becming impatiet wth Netanyahu in Israel... well so are most Amerian Jews.

Trump still has January 6, 2021 to play down.

The negative ads write themseles about Donald Trump.

[President Johnson]

No change. The general election is too far away for anything to matter what happened yesterday.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No change. The general election is too far away for anything to matter what happened yesterday.

Biden will win MI anyways the state has a D G and a D state legislature

Emerson, Harvard-Harris X and Rassy polls are taking phone polls and You Gov and MC are taking internet polls thats why you get discrepencies a tied race and then Rassy Trump 6, Trump isn't winning AZ or Natl by 6 pts

Its a 303 map in 20/22/24/26/28

[GeneralMacArthur]

Yes, I know President Biden has been applying pressure on Israel and working hard towards a ceasefire. I am a proud supporter of President Biden and look forward to voting for him in November. I also happen to be a Palestinian American

The protestors in America do want the war to end permeantly. They want the hostages released. I agree that most protestors haven't put too much thought into the fate of Hamas. The best result would be a deal that allows Hamas fighters to flee to a third world nation like the cowards they are and for the internationally recognized PA to lead the Gaza Strip

I, too, would like the war to end permanently.

However, I am not personally willing to accept an end to the war that allows Hamas to stay in power.

To me, that does not actually end the war permanently.  It creates the inevitability of a subsequent war.  It also makes any efforts to repair and rebuild Gaza utterly pointless since those funds will be appropriate by Hamas and used to rebuild the tunnel network Israel has been destroying.  This is the worst possible outcome for Palestinians.

I would call any "peace" where Hamas remains in power a Hamas victory.  Given the choice between the two, I would rather Israel continue its war until Hamas is completely destroyed.  Yes even at the cost of civilian casualties.

Furthermore, if Israel were to make concessions to reach an end to the war where Hamas stays in power, as so many want them to do (concessions including releasing Palestinian prisoners and paying reparations to Gaza), I would consider that to be an Israeli surrender.  Which would be absurd, given they're overwhelmingly winning the war on the ground.  By rights, Hamas should be the ones either groveling for a ceasefire or taking cyanide tablets in their bunkers.

Naturally Israel feels the same way, which is why the war continues.

I think Biden feels the same way as well and suspect that behind the scenes he is just as frustrated with Hamas's stubbornness as Israel.

Of course, if you are Hamas in this situation you have to be stubborn.  You have basically nothing to gain from not fighting to the last man.  The leaders of Hamas don't care how many Hamas fighters or Palestinian civilians die.  They aren't even in Gaza, they're up in their Doha penthouse hot tubs jerking off to 10/7 videos.  To them, at this point, this is probably like when you're playing a game of Age of Empires and you're totally busted but you'd rather recreate the Charge of the Light Brigade than just hit Resign.  The main thing they're hoping for right now is that suckers in the west can create enough political pressure on western leaders to transitively pressure Bibi into ending the war early.

[Badger]

He will need to win over normally Democratic voting Arab Americans as well as hardcore leftists in places like Ann Arbor who are upset over the god of war. It'll be a combination of three things. One, hoping and working towards making the war far less of an issue in the next 8 months, too, convincing such voters quite correctly that Trump's policy on the war would be far far more disastrous for Gaza and the Palestinians then his relative restraint on Netanyahu, and three trying to win back the deficit of Voters elsewhere in the state.

Doable, but like traditional Democrats we would rather hold our heads High feet demanding near Perfection rather than lift our fingers to vote against a vastly worse alternative

[Crumpets]

Somewhere between options 2 and 3. I was bracing for some bad news and it didn't come. But I'm really just going back to my baseline of "Michigan is a must-win tossup state for Biden" rather than "Michigan is looking good/bad for Biden."

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Somewhere between options 2 and 3. I was bracing for some bad news and it didn't come. But I'm really just going back to my baseline of "Michigan is a must-win tossup state for Biden" rather than "Michigan is looking good/bad for Biden."

This. Both sides overblow the results but I do think they where good for Biden

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is out on Act blue saying this matra over and over again don't trust polls just trust the voters.


We have been thru this time and again that polls aren't votes