How do you feel about Biden’s chances in MI after tonight?

[Tekken_Guy]

How do you feel about Biden’s chances of winning Michigan after tonight?

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Confirmed what I knew so a bit more optimistic but I’ll throw it in the trend of elections.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Ever so slightly worse, but that has nothing to do with the Dem primary. It's just that Trump had a much better night than I originally anticipated.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Not much change, this was what I expected.
Although the turnout Trump got was astounding.

[The Mikado]

Voted no change. This is fun but it's not really important.

[Randy Marsh]

How are people voting for more optimistic? 75k voters went uncommitted with only 69% reporting. That's 7x Trump's 2016 margin — if even a small fraction of these voters hold out in the general as well Biden's in real trouble (not to mention the 30k votes for the other Dems)

[MR DARK BRANDON]

How are people voting for more optimistic? 75k voters went uncommitted with only 69% reporting. That's 7x Trump's 2016 margin — if even a small fraction of these voters hold out in the general as well Biden's in real trouble (not to mention the 30k votes for the other Dems)

This has not been talked about enough tonight but The fact that Biden still managed to get 81% despite of this is impressive.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Much more optimistic.  He's going to lose a few thousand voters in Dearborn, but doesn't seem like there was much of a statement to be made by the rest of the state.  Ultimately the Arab-American voters of Dearborn, MI need to realize that demanding a major party nominee side with Hamas is simply not going to work, it is not a position that any political candidate is going to take.  They can either engage in politics rationally or take their ball and go home, but nobody is going to pander to them, and if they band together to refuse to vote for Biden over his lack of support for Hamas, they are just going to be seen as some fringey group like like the Fundamentalist Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints where they're not gettable voters because neither party is interested in signing their list of idiosyncratic demands.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Somewhat more optimistic.

There are indeed voters frustrated with the administration on the Gaza conflict, yet, as posited by some, probably not what will cost the campaign Michigan on its own, if it does at all. Which I doubt.

Meanwhile, Trump was overestimated again and maintains a huge weakness in college-educated suburbs.

[oldtimer]

Fun fact in terms of votes:

Trump + Uncommited + Others > Biden + Haley

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

How are people voting for more optimistic? 75k voters went uncommitted with only 69% reporting. That's 7x Trump's 2016 margin — if even a small fraction of these voters hold out in the general as well Biden's in real trouble (not to mention the 30k votes for the other Dems)

This has not been talked about enough tonight but The fact that Biden still managed to get 81% despite of this is impressive.

Biden seems to be getting less the higher turnout the primary is.

[Podgy the Bear]

Biden has his work cut out for him.  But the fact that Haley received 300,000 votes (and they're not crossover votes) in a race where the media and Republican establishment have already called the nomination for Trump is significant. 

Trump is bleeding support in the suburbs.  These are high propensity voters and will turn out in November.  The question will be whether or not the Haley voters will swallow hard and vote for Trump.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Biden has his work cut out for him.  But the fact that Haley received 300,000 votes (and they're not crossover votes) in a race where the media and Republican establishment have already called the nomination for Trump is significant.  

Trump is bleeding support in the suburbs.  These are high propensity voters and will turn out in November.  The question will be whether or not the Haley voters will swallow hard and vote for Trump.

Biden seems to bleeding support in Washtenaw and Wayne, where he will need to run up margins.

[Podgy the Bear]

Biden has his work cut out for him.  But the fact that Haley received 300,000 votes (and they're not crossover votes) in a race where the media and Republican establishment have already called the nomination for Trump is significant.  

Trump is bleeding support in the suburbs.  These are high propensity voters and will turn out in November.  The question will be whether or not the Haley voters will swallow hard and vote for Trump.

Biden seems to bleeding support in Washtenaw and Wayne, where he will need to run up margins.

What's your answer about why Haley received the vote she did?  Trump is underperforming the polling numbers.  You can't ignore the fact that he has a suburban problem.  Again, these voters will turn out in November.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The polls want to potray in Primary and GE a narrative that Trump is automatically Prez and we haven't voted yet and the majority of Atlas users are Ds not Rs, I feel good


It's nothing but R polls because QU has Biden leading and nothing from PPP yet

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ever so slightly worse, but that has nothing to do with the Dem primary. It's just that Trump had a much better night than I originally anticipated.

No he didn't blks turned out for Biden the uncommitted was 13 and that's what Trump will get among blks voters in Fall, you know this

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Biden has his work cut out for him.  But the fact that Haley received 300,000 votes (and they're not crossover votes) in a race where the media and Republican establishment have already called the nomination for Trump is significant.  

Trump is bleeding support in the suburbs.  These are high propensity voters and will turn out in November.  The question will be whether or not the Haley voters will swallow hard and vote for Trump.

Biden seems to bleeding support in Washtenaw and Wayne, where he will need to run up margins.

What's your answer about why Haley received the vote she did?  Trump is underperforming the polling numbers.  You can't ignore the fact that he has a suburban problem.  Again, these voters will turn out in November.

Haley didn’t try in MI until the last minute (after SC), well after every poll was done. This, they didn’t capture the last minute shift. Also, it seems clear some Ds voted in Oakland and Washtenaw based on turnout numbers.

Besides, Biden consistently gets lower totals than Trump in every primary so far.

[Pres Mike]

Much more optimistic.  He's going to lose a few thousand voters in Dearborn, but doesn't seem like there was much of a statement to be made by the rest of the state.  Ultimately the Arab-American voters of Dearborn, MI need to realize that demanding a major party nominee side with Hamas is simply not going to work, it is not a position that any political candidate is going to take.  They can either engage in politics rationally or take their ball and go home, but nobody is going to pander to them, and if they band together to refuse to vote for Biden over his lack of support for Hamas, they are just going to be seen as some fringey group like like the Fundamentalist Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints where they're not gettable voters because neither party is interested in signing their list of idiosyncratic demands.

They aren't wanting Democrats to side with Hamas. They don't want Israel to kill so many civilans. 30k dead, 2/3rds women and children. This isn't a fringe position. I watched Seth Meyers and Jon Stewart last night, and both men asked what the US could do to have Israel be more careful about civilian Palestinian deaths. 10 years ago, this would not have been asked on TV by mainstream journalists

[SnowLabrador]

I was pessimistic before and I'm pessimistic now. So no change.

[Compuzled_One]

Basically the same as before, which is that it's winnable if he zeroes in.

[mjba257]

The results were meh for both Biden and Trump. Their respective supporters will say it was a massive victory, while their detractors will be doom casting. Here's the objective truth

- Trump, despite being a de facto incumbent and having been declared the presumptive nominee for months now, still can't crack 70% against Haley. To no surprise, his weakest areas are affluent suburban counties, which contain very high propensity voters. At the same time, he still got a massive turnout for someone not running in a seriously competitive primary. He got about 150k more votes than Biden.

- Biden's results are mediocre. Could've been much worse, but certainly nothing to celebrate. Had he fallen below 80%, that would've been a very bad omen. But Uncommitted got over 100k votes. If Michigan turns out to be as close as I think it will be, that 100k could easily be the death nail to Biden.

[Sir Mohamed]

No change, tbh. Predicting November based on primary results of February is hardly meaningful.

I think as of today MI is Tilt or Lean R based on numerous polls. However, I think Biden can easily turn it around.

[Ferguson97]

The biggest problem for Trump in Michigan is that a significant number of Haley voters will vote Biden, but virtually none of the uncommitted voters will switch to Trump — they’re either voting third party or not at all.

[Duke of York]

I was pessimistic before and I'm pessimistic now. So no change.

your never not pessimistic.

[Skill and Chance]

Better TBH- Trump underperformed the polls vs. Haley and the whole uncommitted thing looked like a tempest in a teapot outside of a couple specific townships that also protest voted for Bernie in the past.