How does Michigan vote relatively to the rust belt trio?

[Tekken_Guy]

How does Michigan vote relative to the other two states in the sun belt trio?

[Schiff for Senate]

Unsure if it'll be the bluest or if PA will edge it out. I'll be bullish and say bluest.

[Annatar]

Will be the most democratic of the 3 as it has been every election this century, all of the demographics that would make MI move more Republican are stronger in WI & PA. In 2020 it had the biggest swing towards Biden out of the 3 and in the 2022 midterms, it was the only one of the 3 where the dems carried the house popular vote, they lost it in both WI and PA adjusting for uncontested seats.

[Progressive Pessimist]

To the left of both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin again.

[Vosem]

I don't know how sustainable this is but current polling pretty clearly has it as the rightmost of the three. (In fact, my guess adjusting RCP state-level polling averages towards the national picture is that as of this exact moment MI is flipping to Trump, while WI and PA are sticking with Biden).

If forced to allocate every state based on how they would vote in an election held right now (my guess is undecideds break Biden but not overwhelmingly so), I think this is the map:

(Possible extremely-funny outcome would be Trump flipping only AZ/GA/NV, but no Midwestern states. In that scenario it's very likely that his mismanagement of the 2020 Census would've cost him the victory, since that would be a GOP victory map if FL/TX had the electoral votes they deserve, but they don't. Even funnier would be that map amid a 2022-ish trend pattern where the Midwest generally outright swings Democratic and the tipping-point state isn't even that close, so that you don't end up with 2020-ish conspiracy theories, and I have to carry my psephology torch alone in saying "2020 was fair, but 2024 was stolen, but it's all Trump's fault anyway so who can feel bad for him really").

[Tekken_Guy]

I don't know how sustainable this is but current polling pretty clearly has it as the rightmost of the three. (In fact, my guess adjusting RCP state-level polling averages towards the national picture is that as of this exact moment MI is flipping to Trump, while WI and PA are sticking with Biden).

If forced to allocate every state based on how they would vote in an election held right now (my guess is undecideds break Biden but not overwhelmingly so), I think this is the map:

(Possible extremely-funny outcome would be Trump flipping only AZ/GA/NV, but no Midwestern states. In that scenario it's very likely that his mismanagement of the 2020 Census would've cost him the victory, since that would be a GOP victory map if FL/TX had the electoral votes they deserve, but they don't. Even funnier would be that map amid a 2022-ish trend pattern where the Midwest generally outright swings Democratic and the tipping-point state isn't even that close, so that you don't end up with 2020-ish conspiracy theories, and I have to carry my psephology torch alone in saying "2020 was fair, but 2024 was stolen, but it's all Trump's fault anyway so who can feel bad for him really").

Do you think it actually will end up the reddest of the three?

[Vosem]

I don't know how sustainable this is but current polling pretty clearly has it as the rightmost of the three. (In fact, my guess adjusting RCP state-level polling averages towards the national picture is that as of this exact moment MI is flipping to Trump, while WI and PA are sticking with Biden).

If forced to allocate every state based on how they would vote in an election held right now (my guess is undecideds break Biden but not overwhelmingly so), I think this is the map:

(Possible extremely-funny outcome would be Trump flipping only AZ/GA/NV, but no Midwestern states. In that scenario it's very likely that his mismanagement of the 2020 Census would've cost him the victory, since that would be a GOP victory map if FL/TX had the electoral votes they deserve, but they don't. Even funnier would be that map amid a 2022-ish trend pattern where the Midwest generally outright swings Democratic and the tipping-point state isn't even that close, so that you don't end up with 2020-ish conspiracy theories, and I have to carry my psephology torch alone in saying "2020 was fair, but 2024 was stolen, but it's all Trump's fault anyway so who can feel bad for him really").

Do you think it actually will end up the reddest of the three?

I don't know how much weight to put on February polling, and in general I think regression to the mean is a real pattern; most likely the result will be more similar to prior results than what the polls are showing now. But it's silly to dispute that right now the polling average is around a tie in PA and WI but a comfortable Trump lead in MI. I suspect if true that this is more about labor stuff than about Gaza, and also that the long-term demographic trends in MI, where the African-American vote is just clearly declining, are more favorable for Republicans than PA/WI. It might also be that the Democratic trifecta in Michigan is not necessarily super popular, while in WI it's the Republicans that have clearly stretched themselves too thin and in PA the local Democrats have clearly moved toward the center a lot compared to other swing-state Democratic parties.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MI always had an R bias so don't pay attention to polls