I do kind of agree that it would basically be looking like a Dem victory in 2024, likely after them picking up seats in a 2022 midterm where abortion has been overturned and Trump is sitting with very high unfavorables due to his scandals and inflation.
The GOP nominee would probably either be DeSantis (if he wants it) or Pence (who I think is likely to be the nominee in this scenario, since I think we'll be looking at a clear Democratic-favored election and other options might just bow out).
I also agree Warren would be a likely choice, and would probably beat out Whitmer and Newsom for the nomination. She was a figure who had appeal in both the more establishment wing and the progressive wing in 2020, and I think after the loss of Clinton and Biden, the progressives will not be open to another moderate at the top of the ticket. She'd be the acceptable compromise.
I think this scenario results in a Warren victory over Pence. I have to wonder if this might've been a better timeline for Democrats than the Biden victory in 2020 we had in real life. I think Democrats would probably be positioned far better than they are now.
I dunno, this argument is being brought up each election whether it wouldn't have been better for the party in power to lose the previous election. Usually it's better for your party to win elections rather than lose.
Sure, Dems might be headed for a substantial victory in 2024 including working majorities in congress, but a backlash may just have been postphoned to 2026.
