State of the race if Trump won in 2020?

[Sir Mohamed]

What would be the state of the presidential race today, if Trump was reelected in 2020? Assuming he defeated Biden. Who would be in the race and what would polling look like?

I think Pence would be the GOP frontrunner since Trump doesn't throw him under the bus with a 2020 victory.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Assume Trump wins AZ, GA, WI, PA in 2020. Assume Perdue and Peters win and all other races are the same outcome.

Democrats have a 7 seat gain in the 2022 Senate.

The Democratic nominee would be leading by double digits and actually go on to win by that much. FL, TX, IA, OH, AK all flip.

Warren, Kloubuchar would probably be in, as well as Whitmer and Newsom.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Whitmer and Newsom would be leading a handful of D candidates still in  until Super Tuesday.

The GOP nominess by unanimous acclaim would, of course, be Donald Trump.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Assume Trump wins AZ, GA, WI, PA in 2020. Assume Perdue and Peters win and all other races are the same outcome.

Democrats have a 7 seat gain in the 2022 Senate.

The Democratic nominee would be leading by double digits and actually go on to win by that much. FL, TX, IA, OH, AK all flip.

Warren, Kloubuchar would probably be in, as well as Whitmer and Newsom.

Ds had the best midterm than any other inc Prez and we didn't gain seats in 2002 Midterm with Bush W we lost seats Rs were supposed to gain 30 H seats they gained 12

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Whitmer and Newsom would be leading a handful of D candidates still in  until Super Tuesday.

The GOP nominess by unanimous acclaim would, of course, be Donald Trump.

Yeah Newsom and Whitmer are doing so well they are losing to Harris in a Primary lol users need to stop WISHFUL thinking only if our Prez lost we would of picked up seats next Eday. The purpose of voting is to elect a D President

[Del Tachi]

After 8 years, Trump would probably be unpopular (approval in the low 40s.)

I think ambitious GOP pols like DeSantis, Hawley would prefer to sit out until 2028 in this scenario.  Pence is the GOP nominee.

After blowing both the 2016 and 2020 elections, the "establishment wing" of the DPUSA would be pretty shot.  They nominate Elizabeth Warren.

Warren vs Pence ends up being closer than expected, but Warren wins 286-252.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Biden is reelected Harris and Wes Moore are our nominees in 28 and if Biden is not Newsom is our nominee

Whitmer and Newsom are losing to Harris in the Primary they are not that strong

Lol Del Chi Klobuchar would have been nominated not socialist Warren

As I said wishful thinking we were gonna gain seats in an R midterm Rs underpolled anyways in 22

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

After 8 years, Trump would probably be unpopular (approval in the low 40s.)

I think ambitious GOP pols like DeSantis, Hawley would prefer to sit out until 2028 in this scenario.  Pence is the GOP nominee.

After blowing both the 2016 and 2020 elections, the "establishment wing" of the DPUSA would be pretty shot.  They nominate Elizabeth Warren.

Warren vs Pence ends up being closer than expected, but Warren wins 286-252.

Probably low 30s. Trump does better on foreign policy but inflation and high interest rates were coming regardless of President. Dobbs would still have happened, and Trump would get the full blame for it since it would happen under his watch.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

After 8 years, Trump would probably be unpopular (approval in the low 40s.)

I think ambitious GOP pols like DeSantis, Hawley would prefer to sit out until 2028 in this scenario.  Pence is the GOP nominee.

After blowing both the 2016 and 2020 elections, the "establishment wing" of the DPUSA would be pretty shot.  They nominate Elizabeth Warren.

Warren vs Pence ends up being closer than expected, but Warren wins 286-252.

Probably low 30s. Trump does better on foreign policy but inflation and high interest rates were coming regardless of President.

Again just because the opposite party in WH doesn't guarantee Ds winning seats the purpose is to elect a D Prez, we lost seats in 2003 and we had a 911 Recession, in 2006 we won Congress due to Katrina and war in Iraq


We still don't know if Ds are gonna get the Filibuster proof Trifecta Biden has 41% Approvals in 22 and we gained seats in a D midterm

[Del Tachi]

After 8 years, Trump would probably be unpopular (approval in the low 40s.)

I think ambitious GOP pols like DeSantis, Hawley would prefer to sit out until 2028 in this scenario.  Pence is the GOP nominee.

After blowing both the 2016 and 2020 elections, the "establishment wing" of the DPUSA would be pretty shot.  They nominate Elizabeth Warren.

Warren vs Pence ends up being closer than expected, but Warren wins 286-252.

Probably low 30s. Trump does better on foreign policy but inflation and high interest rates were coming regardless of President. Dobbs would still have happened, and Trump would get the full blame for it since it would happen under his watch.

Trump is such a polarizing figure that he bottoms out in the low 40s.  He would keep the base, although as a lame duck he could expect some further bleeding.  Maybe that's enough to give him some polls in the mid 30s, but definitely no lower than that. 

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

After 8 years, Trump would probably be unpopular (approval in the low 40s.)

I think ambitious GOP pols like DeSantis, Hawley would prefer to sit out until 2028 in this scenario.  Pence is the GOP nominee.

After blowing both the 2016 and 2020 elections, the "establishment wing" of the DPUSA would be pretty shot.  They nominate Elizabeth Warren.

Warren vs Pence ends up being closer than expected, but Warren wins 286-252.

Probably low 30s. Trump does better on foreign policy but inflation and high interest rates were coming regardless of President. Dobbs would still have happened, and Trump would get the full blame for it since it would happen under his watch.

Trump is such a polarizing figure that he bottoms out in the low 40s.  He would keep the base, although as a lame duck he could expect some further bleeding.  Maybe that's enough to give him some polls in the mid 30s, but definitely no lower than that.  

Trump was in the low 40s with a good economy and no Dobbs. Doubt he would stay there with high inflation and Dobbs.

The reason his base didn't abandon him despite how bad his character is because his Presidency generally went well.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Whitmer and Newsom would be leading a handful of D candidates still in  until Super Tuesday.

The GOP nominess by unanimous acclaim would, of course, be Donald Trump.

Whitmer probably wouldn't even get 3% in IA and drop out (assuming IA would still go first, but she'd arguably do worse in SC or GA if that came first). Same for Newsom, zero appeal to areas other than the west coast. Maybe, they are the forum favourite darlings but we have no data on whether the Democratic Party would favour these candidates if Biden wasn't running.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Assume Trump wins AZ, GA, WI, PA in 2020. Assume Perdue and Peters win and all other races are the same outcome.

Democrats have a 7 seat gain in the 2022 Senate.

The Democratic nominee would be leading by double digits and actually go on to win by that much. FL, TX, IA, OH, AK all flip.

Warren, Kloubuchar would probably be in, as well as Whitmer and Newsom.

I assume you mean Peters loses to James?

I also don't see Trump being unpopular enough for a 7 seat senate lose in 2022. They probably lose it. (Ande definitely lose the House assuming they took it in 2020) But I don't think there are enough swing seats up.

They lose PA (duh), WI.

After that it is hard. NC I can see in a bad midterm. AK would not have Peralta (she won her house race in August 2022- which may have been for control in this TL) OH maybe but I don't see it given how far the state has gone. There where no other GOP seats won in 2022 by less than 11 points.

I have no idea where you would get 7, 5 seems like a herculean task given the map.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Assume Trump wins AZ, GA, WI, PA in 2020. Assume Perdue and Peters win and all other races are the same outcome.

Democrats have a 7 seat gain in the 2022 Senate.

The Democratic nominee would be leading by double digits and actually go on to win by that much. FL, TX, IA, OH, AK all flip.

Warren, Kloubuchar would probably be in, as well as Whitmer and Newsom.

I assume you mean Peters loses to James?

I also don't see Trump being unpopular enough for a 7 seat senate lose in 2022. They probably lose it. (Ande definitely lose the House assuming they took it in 2020) But I don't think there are enough swing seats up.

They lose PA (duh), WI.

After that it is hard. NC I can see in a bad midterm. AK would not have Peralta (she won her house race in August 2022- which may have been for control in this TL) OH maybe but I don't see it given how far the state has gone. There where no other GOP seats won in 2022 by less than 11 points.

I have no idea where you would get 7, 5 seems like a herculean task given the map.

PA, NC, WI, OH, IA, UT, FL. The PV was R +3 in 2022 and would’ve been at least D +10 with Trump, so the overall shift should be about 13 points.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

For the sake of argument will give Trump a Biden 2020 esq victory.

Trump carries OTL plus GA, AZ, WI, PA- comes close in MI, NV

2020 Senate same pulse Perdue wins (in Nov) and James beats Peters. Warnock wins runoff (52-48 gop control).

Extremely narrow house victory GOP 222-213.

GOP struggles to pass much in first two years given narrow House.

Dobbs still happens, Breyer does not retire of course.

Trump rages at Democrats and moderate Republicans.

2022- Dems take the House by a good amount, which begins impeachment proceedings on Trump scandal 32.

Dems pick up PA, WI, NC

McMullen picks up Utah (I actually like that one Riverwalk)
 
Dems on paper hold a 50-47-1 majority) In practice senate is run by the Gang of  6 Moderates, (Murkowski, Collins, Romney, McMullen Manchin, Sinemima)

Most GOP front runners do not run given Trumps unpopularity although there is a large draft DeSantis movement. Pence or Vance is the nominee.

For the Dems I think they go with Witmer who beats, Warren, a Squad member, and Newsome.

Dems ahead in all of the swing states by 3+ points.
 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The problem in the rational is that if Trump won in 20 there wouldn't have been a J6, Rs underpolled in 22 due to J6, due to they should of gotten 30 they netted 12

Riverwalk continue to ignore my argument that in 2002 Ds lost seats in a Bush W midterm, we only gained seats in 2006 due to Katrina and Iraq. Rs won 60 seats in 2010 due to 11% unemployment

There is no guarantee that outparty gain seats in Midterms it just happens, that's why I want Biden reelected. There is no guarantee we gain seats in 26, if Trump wins he would do all he can to keep Congress in 26. Without VR we would lose the H

[oldtimer]

What would be the state of the presidential race today, if Trump was reelected in 2020? Assuming he defeated Biden. Who would be in the race and what would polling look like?

I think Pence would be the GOP frontrunner since Trump doesn't throw him under the bus with a 2020 victory.

I have to agree on Pence.

The Democrats would have swung Progressive after 2 defeats for the Establishment Candidate in a row, however:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Sanders would have been too old.
Warren has been stained by preventing Sanders from winning in 2020.

So no clear Progressive candidate.

On the Establishment side:

Harris vs Newsom vs Whitmer (assuming she would have won) vs Buttigieg (bankrolled by Bloomberg) in a messy fight.

As to the general:

Since Trump would have avoided the pitfalls that sank Biden (masks, wars, overstimulus) and the Democrats bitterly split, I guess Pence would have been favoured.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

What about all those radical right wing judges there will be more if Trump gets back into office.

That alone will be enough for me to vote D, they still would have an R next to their name even if Ds controlled the S . There are too many Trump judges already

[Rat]

I do kind of agree that it would basically be looking like a Dem victory in 2024, likely after them picking up seats in a 2022 midterm where abortion has been overturned and Trump is sitting with very high unfavorables due to his scandals and inflation.

The GOP nominee would probably either be DeSantis (if he wants it) or Pence (who I think is likely to be the nominee in this scenario, since I think we'll be looking at a clear Democratic-favored election and other options might just bow out).

I also agree Warren would be a likely choice, and would probably beat out Whitmer and Newsom for the nomination. She was a figure who had appeal in both the more establishment wing and the progressive wing in 2020, and I think after the loss of Clinton and Biden, the progressives will not be open to another moderate at the top of the ticket. She'd be the acceptable compromise.

I think this scenario results in a Warren victory over Pence. I have to wonder if this might've been a better timeline for Democrats than the Biden victory in 2020 we had in real life. I think Democrats would probably be positioned far better than they are now.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

What would be the state of the presidential race today, if Trump was reelected in 2020? Assuming he defeated Biden. Who would be in the race and what would polling look like?

I think Pence would be the GOP frontrunner since Trump doesn't throw him under the bus with a 2020 victory.

I have to agree on Pence.

The Democrats would have swung Progressive after 2 defeats for the Establishment Candidate in a row, however:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Sanders would have been too old.
Warren has been stained by preventing Sanders from winning in 2020.

So no clear Progressive candidate.

On the Establishment side:

Harris vs Newsom vs Whitmer (assuming she would have won) vs Buttigieg (bankrolled by Bloomberg) in a messy fight.

As to the general:

Since Trump would have avoided the pitfalls that sank Biden (masks, wars, overstimulus) and the Democrats bitterly split, I guess Pence would have been favoured.

We printed lots of money and passed the CARES act in 2020. Inflation was happening regardless of who was elected. Masks and wars would not have happened under Trump though.

[oldtimer]

What would be the state of the presidential race today, if Trump was reelected in 2020? Assuming he defeated Biden. Who would be in the race and what would polling look like?

I think Pence would be the GOP frontrunner since Trump doesn't throw him under the bus with a 2020 victory.

I have to agree on Pence.

The Democrats would have swung Progressive after 2 defeats for the Establishment Candidate in a row, however:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Sanders would have been too old.
Warren has been stained by preventing Sanders from winning in 2020.

So no clear Progressive candidate.

On the Establishment side:

Harris vs Newsom vs Whitmer (assuming she would have won) vs Buttigieg (bankrolled by Bloomberg) in a messy fight.

As to the general:

Since Trump would have avoided the pitfalls that sank Biden (masks, wars, overstimulus) and the Democrats bitterly split, I guess Pence would have been favoured.

We printed lots of money and passed the CARES act in 2020. Inflation was happening regardless of who was elected. Masks and wars would not have happened under Trump though.

I don't think so, the 2020 stimulus packs simply reverted the economy to what it was before.

The post-2020 stimulus packs overheated an economy already at full steam.

[BlueSwan]

Trump runs again in 2024, obviously. And the now 7-2 conservative supreme court lets him do it. And if they don't, he runs anyway. Who's to stop him? Another obvious possibility is there there simply isn't a presidential election in 2024.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Trump runs again in 2024, obviously. And the now 7-2 conservative supreme court lets him do it. And if they don't, he runs anyway. Who's to stop him? Another obvious possibility is there there simply isn't a presidential election in 2024.

Democrats win by LBJ 1964 margins if Trump ran for a third term.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

What would be the state of the presidential race today, if Trump was reelected in 2020? Assuming he defeated Biden. Who would be in the race and what would polling look like?

I think Pence would be the GOP frontrunner since Trump doesn't throw him under the bus with a 2020 victory.

I have to agree on Pence.

The Democrats would have swung Progressive after 2 defeats for the Establishment Candidate in a row, however:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Sanders would have been too old.
Warren has been stained by preventing Sanders from winning in 2020.

So no clear Progressive candidate.

On the Establishment side:

Harris vs Newsom vs Whitmer (assuming she would have won) vs Buttigieg (bankrolled by Bloomberg) in a messy fight.

As to the general:

Since Trump would have avoided the pitfalls that sank Biden (masks, wars, overstimulus) and the Democrats bitterly split, I guess Pence would have been favoured.

We printed lots of money and passed the CARES act in 2020. Inflation was happening regardless of who was elected. Masks and wars would not have happened under Trump though.

I don't think so, the 2020 stimulus packs simply reverted the economy to what it was before.

The post-2020 stimulus packs overheated an economy already at full steam.

Nope. When you print as much money as we did in 2020 and give away trillions in stimulus and free loans, you get inflation. It was designed to do that because we didn't want a deflationary environment when the economy was shutdown.

The reason we had runaway inflation after was because the Fed kept rates at 0% for far too long. There was going to be inflation whether Trump had been re-elected or not.

[Duke of York]

2022 would have been a blue wave of epic proportions and 2024 would be looking at a landslide win for Democrats. Whitmer would likely be the frontrunner.