Emerson: Baldwin +7, Trump +3

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

More Biden-specific bad polling numbers:



https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1762434500460441811

[SnowLabrador]

Maybe it's less that Biden's polling uniquely badly and more that Trump's polling uniquely well. I think we need to ask the uncomfortable question: Are the indictments helping him in the general election as well?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I doubt we’re gonna see such a disparity between Biden and down ballot Dems on Election Day. Their numbers will probably converge at some point by then.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ha Hovde is losing

[Spectator]

I doubt we’re gonna see such a disparity between Biden and down ballot Dems on Election Day. Their numbers will probably converge at some point by then.

Be careful what you wish for. More likely that downballot converges on the presidential numbers than vice versa.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I doubt we’re gonna see such a disparity between Biden and down ballot Dems on Election Day. Their numbers will probably converge at some point by then.

Be careful what you wish for. More likely that downballot converges on the presidential numbers than vice versa.

No it won't happen like that

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

I doubt we’re gonna see such a disparity between Biden and down ballot Dems on Election Day. Their numbers will probably converge at some point by then.

Be careful what you wish for. More likely that downballot converges on the presidential numbers than vice versa.

Yeah part of the difference is likely name recognition. Baldwin is at 46% while Biden is at 45%

17% of Trump voters are undecided in the Senate race vs just 5% of Biden voters.

There will be some cross over votes but I don't see it being a 10 point difference here.

[Spectator]

I doubt we’re gonna see such a disparity between Biden and down ballot Dems on Election Day. Their numbers will probably converge at some point by then.

Be careful what you wish for. More likely that downballot converges on the presidential numbers than vice versa.

Yeah part of the difference is likely name recognition. Baldwin is at 46% while Biden is at 45%

17% of Trump voters are undecided in the Senate race vs just 5% of Biden voters.

There will be some cross over votes but I don't see it being a 10 point difference here.

Yes, lucky for Dems they generally don’t need that many ticket splitters even if Trump wins the presidency. If Baldwin runs 2-3 points ahead she wins since that’s probably the max that Trump could realistically win Wisconsin by. Tester and Brown don’t have that luxury.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I doubt we’re gonna see such a disparity between Biden and down ballot Dems on Election Day. Their numbers will probably converge at some point by then.

Be careful what you wish for. More likely that downballot converges on the presidential numbers than vice versa.

Never said I thought it would be the other way around, or that I was hoping it would be.

Besides, I don't think Baldwin has much to worry about. Hovde is a very mediocre candidate, so I don't see too much of a convergence happening.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

I doubt we’re gonna see such a disparity between Biden and down ballot Dems on Election Day. Their numbers will probably converge at some point by then.

Be careful what you wish for. More likely that downballot converges on the presidential numbers than vice versa.

The downballot numbers probably aren’t too far off after seeing 2022. It is possible that Presidential and downballot numbers stay mostly where they are.

[Vosem]

I doubt we’re gonna see such a disparity between Biden and down ballot Dems on Election Day. Their numbers will probably converge at some point by then.

Be careful what you wish for. More likely that downballot converges on the presidential numbers than vice versa.

I can see specific popular incumbents like Baldwin (who ran ahead of Wisconsin Democrats in general in 2018) or Casey over-performing, but I continue to really doubt that congressional Republicans taken as a whole will run behind Trump.

[Spectator]

I doubt we’re gonna see such a disparity between Biden and down ballot Dems on Election Day. Their numbers will probably converge at some point by then.

Be careful what you wish for. More likely that downballot converges on the presidential numbers than vice versa.

I can see specific popular incumbents like Baldwin (who ran ahead of Wisconsin Democrats in general in 2018) or Casey over-performing, but I continue to really doubt that congressional Republicans taken as a whole will run behind Trump.

More of a 2022 scenario where Republican overconfidence leads to a ton of whiffs on Senate and House races by nominating bad/flawed candidates. The residency issues in most of the competitive Senate races—while not Dr. Oz level bad—aren’t good and would lead to an underperformance on that alone (WI, PA, MI, NV). Then you have…Kari Lake. On the House side, the underperformances of Trump are likely to come from either weak opponents (Joe Kent, Nick Begich, Paul Junge) or popular incumbent Democrats (Golden, Peltola, Kaptur). Whereas “normal” Republicans probably tend to match or exceed Trump’s performance.

[oldtimer]

I doubt we’re gonna see such a disparity between Biden and down ballot Dems on Election Day. Their numbers will probably converge at some point by then.

Be careful what you wish for. More likely that downballot converges on the presidential numbers than vice versa.

I can see specific popular incumbents like Baldwin (who ran ahead of Wisconsin Democrats in general in 2018) or Casey over-performing, but I continue to really doubt that congressional Republicans taken as a whole will run behind Trump.

More of a 2022 scenario where Republican overconfidence leads to a ton of whiffs on Senate and House races by nominating bad/flawed candidates. The residency issues in most of the competitive Senate races—while not Dr. Oz level bad—aren’t good and would lead to an underperformance on that alone (WI, PA, MI, NV). Then you have…Kari Lake. On the House side, the underperformances of Trump are likely to come from either weak opponents (Joe Kent, Nick Begich, Paul Junge) or popular incumbent Democrats (Golden, Peltola, Kaptur). Whereas “normal” Republicans probably tend to match or exceed Trump’s performance.

That theory fails why the GOP did equally bad in the NV and CO races.

Or all the House races in the same states.

The GOP did well in the Midterms only in very narrow georgraphical areas along the coasts.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Baldwin isn't winning by 7 and Biden loses state by 3