WI: Trump +2 (Kaplan Strategies)
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Author Topic: WI: Trump +2 (Kaplan Strategies)  (Read 808 times)
The Economy is Getting Worse
riverwalk3
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« on: February 26, 2024, 03:31:28 PM »
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President Johnson
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« Reply #1 on: February 26, 2024, 03:35:08 PM »
According to Kaplan, Biden is doing better in Wisconsin than Michigan by eight points. Lmao.
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The Economy is Getting Worse
riverwalk3
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« Reply #2 on: February 26, 2024, 03:37:05 PM »
Quote from: President Johnson on February 26, 2024, 03:35:08 PM
According to Kaplan, Biden is doing better in Wisconsin than Michigan by eight points. Lmao.
WI polls have underestimated Trump in the past. Although MI is probably overestimating Trump too.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #3 on: February 26, 2024, 03:37:30 PM »
This is Gravis Marketing
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DrScholl
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« Reply #4 on: February 26, 2024, 03:59:58 PM »
Quote from: The Economy is Getting Worse on February 26, 2024, 03:37:05 PM
Quote from: President Johnson on February 26, 2024, 03:35:08 PM
According to Kaplan, Biden is doing better in Wisconsin than Michigan by eight points. Lmao.
WI polls have underestimated Trump in the past. Although MI is probably overestimating Trump too.

Or maybe the polls are just crap.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #5 on: February 26, 2024, 08:30:25 PM »
Quote from: President Johnson on February 26, 2024, 03:35:08 PM
According to Kaplan, Biden is doing better in Wisconsin than Michigan by eight points. Lmao.

The state level variation may not mean much at this point.  Polls the past few days average to a Republican version of 2008 just about everywhere.
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The Economy is Getting Worse
riverwalk3
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« Reply #6 on: February 26, 2024, 08:31:11 PM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on February 26, 2024, 08:30:25 PM
Quote from: President Johnson on February 26, 2024, 03:35:08 PM
According to Kaplan, Biden is doing better in Wisconsin than Michigan by eight points. Lmao.

The state level variation may not mean much at this point.  Polls the past few days average to a Republican version of 2008 just about everywhere.
More like 1996. Democrats are doing fine downballot (ie Trump +6, Casey +7 type results)
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #7 on: February 26, 2024, 08:34:28 PM »
Quote from: The Economy is Getting Worse on February 26, 2024, 08:31:11 PM
Quote from: Skill and Chance on February 26, 2024, 08:30:25 PM
Quote from: President Johnson on February 26, 2024, 03:35:08 PM
According to Kaplan, Biden is doing better in Wisconsin than Michigan by eight points. Lmao.

The state level variation may not mean much at this point.  Polls the past few days average to a Republican version of 2008 just about everywhere.
More like 1996. Democrats are doing fine downballot (ie Trump +6, Casey +7 type results)

I question whether that will hold up if the topline presidential polls are accurate.

FWIW if this does turn into Republican 2008, the 2022 midterm could end up being extremely consequential.  It puts 60 R senate seats of reach even if Republicans sweep every seat Biden won by less than 10.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #8 on: February 27, 2024, 12:15:58 AM »
If Trump is only up 2 in WI he isn't up 1o in MI
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henster
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« Reply #9 on: February 27, 2024, 12:40:18 AM »
So... Kristi Noem has the same 39% favorability rating in both WI/MI according to this pollster and DeSantis/Carson/Vivek have nearly identical favorable #'s in both polls. And no crosstabs and demographic data hmm..
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Comrade Funk
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« Reply #10 on: February 27, 2024, 05:47:42 AM »
Quote from: DrScholl on February 26, 2024, 03:59:58 PM
Quote from: The Economy is Getting Worse on February 26, 2024, 03:37:05 PM
Quote from: President Johnson on February 26, 2024, 03:35:08 PM
According to Kaplan, Biden is doing better in Wisconsin than Michigan by eight points. Lmao.
WI polls have underestimated Trump in the past. Although MI is probably overestimating Trump too.

Or maybe the polls are just crap.
Every poll for Biden is crap according to some. Because every poll has Biden down.
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Yellowhammer
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« Reply #11 on: February 29, 2024, 02:19:10 PM »
Quote from: Comrade Funk on February 27, 2024, 05:47:42 AM
Quote from: DrScholl on February 26, 2024, 03:59:58 PM
Quote from: The Economy is Getting Worse on February 26, 2024, 03:37:05 PM
Quote from: President Johnson on February 26, 2024, 03:35:08 PM
According to Kaplan, Biden is doing better in Wisconsin than Michigan by eight points. Lmao.
WI polls have underestimated Trump in the past. Although MI is probably overestimating Trump too.

Or maybe the polls are just crap.
Every poll for Biden is crap according to some. Because every poll has Biden down.

They're right. There is probably a huge response bias right now due to democrats being embarrassed about admitting to support Biden despite the position the country is in. Most who disapprove of both Biden and Trump are going to choose Biden in the end.
I would rest easy, Biden has this in the bag. 
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #12 on: February 29, 2024, 02:23:16 PM »
« Edited: February 29, 2024, 02:54:12 PM by Dr Oz Lost Party! »
Quote from: henster on February 27, 2024, 12:40:18 AM
So... Kristi Noem has the same 39% favorability rating in both WI/MI according to this pollster and DeSantis/Carson/Vivek have nearly identical favorable #'s in both polls. And no crosstabs and demographic data hmm..





I highly doubt that Noem would significantly boost Trump's chances. I'm not sure which of his weakest support groups (suburban voters, women, young people, moderates) she would actually help him with.

She's an ultra-con coming from one of the smallest, most rural, and most right-wing states in the country, so that takes moderates and suburban voters off the table. She's much more anti-abortion than Trump, so that sours her chances with women and young people (and no, just because she's a woman doesn't mean she will appeal to them or provide any sort of boost for the Republicans with them, especially when considering the fact that the literal incumbent VP is already a woman)
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #13 on: March 07, 2024, 10:50:15 AM »
Quote from: holtridge on March 07, 2024, 10:31:16 AM
Why is Trump ahead in Wisconsin? I thought Wisconsin had a lot of Progressive voters.


It's MOE
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