MI (Emerson): Trump and Biden with big leads

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

69 Trump
20 Haley
11 Undecided

76 Trump
24 Haley


######


74 Biden
  9 Uncommitted
  5 Phillips
12 Undecided

77 Biden
16 Uncommitted
  7 Phillips

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/michigan-2024-poll-trump-46-biden-44/

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

I wonder why they didn't offer "uncommitted" as an option in the Republican primary, because according to the Secretary of State, it is an option on the ballot and will certainly get 2-10% support (many people don't like Trump or Haley).

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Despite these favorable Emerson numbers, I still guess that Trump will remain below 70.

The numbers for Biden, uncommitted and Phillips seem OK.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm skeptical that too many people actually turn out to vote for uncommitted in both primaries.

It'll certainly do better than Phillips though.

[2016]

No way that Trump gets 70 % of the Vote here. Michigan is actually a State where it is conceivable that Haley gets over 40 % if she performs in Wayne, Oakland Counties like she did Charleston County on Saturday.

[RI]

No way that Trump gets 70 % of the Vote here. Michigan is actually a State where it is conceivable that Haley gets over 40 % if she performs in Wayne, Oakland Counties like she did Charleston County on Saturday.

I'd argue Haley's ceiling is closer to 35%. She's running close to Rubio + Bush + Kasich's numbers from 2016 in NH (if you add Christie as well) and SC.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

No way that Trump gets 70 % of the Vote here. Michigan is actually a State where it is conceivable that Haley gets over 40 % if she performs in Wayne, Oakland Counties like she did Charleston County on Saturday.

There are not enough wealthy suburban Michigan Republicans for Haley to get 40%.

[wbrocks67]

I wouldn't be surprised to see uncommitted hit 10%+ (it hit 10% in 2012) but the fact it goes from 9% to 16% is kind of instructive imo. The 9% seems more like the solid ground, since most people who are voting this seem pretty adamant. The fact that 7% worth need to be 'pushed' to it makes me wonder how many of those are even going to bother voting.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

No way that Trump gets 70 % of the Vote here. Michigan is actually a State where it is conceivable that Haley gets over 40 % if she performs in Wayne, Oakland Counties like she did Charleston County on Saturday.

Haley had home state advantage in SC so i wouldn't extrapolate these numbers to MI, while secondly MI is very different from SC in terms of state culture. A larger portion of GOP voters in MI will be anti-establishment as opposed to in SC.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Trump performed slightly worse than Emerson said, Biden slightly better or about what they had.

Bottom line: Michigan will be close in November.

SHOCKING.

[The Mikado]

Trump performed slightly worse than Emerson said, Biden slightly better or about what they had.

Bottom line: Michigan will be close in November.

SHOCKING.

Eh. They said Trump 69, result was Trump 68. Just that, as has happened in other primaries, no undecideds break Trump.

Biden otoh did overperform this poll.

[wbrocks67]

I wouldn't be surprised to see uncommitted hit 10%+ (it hit 10% in 2012) but the fact it goes from 9% to 16% is kind of instructive imo. The 9% seems more like the solid ground, since most people who are voting this seem pretty adamant. The fact that 7% worth need to be 'pushed' to it makes me wonder how many of those are even going to bother voting.

Irony that it was right in between the two