It's 2040. What are the current swing states?

[Flats the Flounder]

And for that matter, how do the swing states of the 2020s vote now?

[Pres Mike]

Too far to tell

I suspect most of the midwest swing states are now solid republican

I think Texas , Montana, and Tennessee would be swing states

[dw93]

Pennsylvania, Texas, Nevada, ME-AL, New Hampshire, and Arizona. Retirees keep AZ and TX competitive for the GOP, the metros of PA and surrounding suburbs keep PA competitive for the Dems, NC and GA become blue (atlas red) states while WI and MI become red (atlas blue) states.

[Fwillb21]

Too far to tell

I suspect most of the midwest swing states are now solid republican

I think Texas , Montana, and Tennessee would be swing states

Also Kansas, and maybe even South Carolina and Utah (call me crazy if you want).

I also think Georgia and even North Carolina could be Likely/Safe D by then.

[wnwnwn]

Either the map stays put or Wisconsin goes GOP or Nevada goes GOP or Michigan goes GOP.

[Pres Mike]

Too far to tell

I suspect most of the midwest swing states are now solid republican

I think Texas , Montana, and Tennessee would be swing states

Also Kansas, and maybe even South Carolina and Utah (call me crazy if you want).

I also think Georgia and even North Carolina could be Likely/Safe D by then.

Alaska would definitely be a swing state

[progressive85]

Texas, Texas, Texas - it's all about the Lone Star State by 2040.  (and also possibly PA)

I also think Democrats will eventually show that they can win important statewide offices in TX by that point.

[Gass3268]

Pennsylvania, Texas, Nevada, ME-AL, New Hampshire, and Arizona. Retirees keep AZ and TX competitive for the GOP, the metros of PA and surrounding suburbs keep PA competitive for the Dems, NC and GA become blue (atlas red) states while WI and MI become red (atlas blue) states.

There are contradictory trends in both MI and WI that make it difficult for me to see them become straight up Republican. If the suburban trends continue, the Milwaukee metro area is a ticking time bomb against Republicans. Same thing applies in Grand Rapids/Western Michigan. What the Republicans need in both states is for the mid size cities to go hard Republican and while there have been some swings that direction, we haven't seen the massive swings that they'd need.

[Agonized-Statism]

2040. While the fighting-age population was pulled away from those f[inks]ing Chinese spyware apps and sent off to fight in the third world war, the envelope of manufacturing friendshoring and automation was pushed like never before by President Newsom. North America is effectively autarkic- nothing left to rebuild in Eurasia this time and not enough resources to do it, those howling cannibals don't even have enough food to be hunter-gatherers- and the population back home is culled enough for the coders, the securities traders, management, and the boards of directors to live sustainably. Most Americans live in trendy podshares fed by local algae farms, entertained by the latest VR games, and travel in regularly combusting electric vehicles with a guaranteed supply of lithium thanks to the free helicopter rides given to any Argentines who don't meet their daily quota. The old crop of extremists have been taken care of, of course- Russian agents, the Disinformation Governance Board discovered- and the moderates in charge have instituted common-sense gun control, so there's nothing to worry about from any new traitors. Not that anyone would have any reason to oppose such a utopia.

[MABA 2020]

All elections are won or lost in Texas

[EastwoodS]

2040. While the fighting-age population was pulled away from those f[inks]ing Chinese spyware apps and sent off to fight in the third world war, the envelope of manufacturing friendshoring and automation was pushed like never before by President Newsom. North America is effectively autarkic- nothing left to rebuild in Eurasia this time and not enough resources to do it, those howling cannibals don't even have enough food to be hunter-gatherers- and the population back home is culled enough for the coders, the securities traders, management, and the boards of directors to live sustainably. Most Americans live in trendy podshares fed by local algae farms, entertained by the latest VR games, and travel in regularly combusting electric vehicles with a guaranteed supply of lithium thanks to the free helicopter rides given to any Argentines who don't meet their daily quota. The old crop of extremists have been taken care of, of course- Russian agents, the Disinformation Governance Board discovered- and the moderates in charge have instituted common-sense gun control, so there's nothing to worry about from any new traitors. Not that anyone would have any reason to oppose such a utopia.

you need to make Florida red lol

[wnwnwn]

[Samof94]

Arizona will vote to the left of Michigan.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Attempted to edit this based on projected 2030 reapportionment.

[Vice President Christian Man]

Feel free to bump this after the 2040 elections.



 

[Schiff for Senate]

TX for certain. Also AZ, PA, and probably NC and MI.

 

Pennsylvania, Texas, Nevada, ME-AL, New Hampshire, and Arizona. Retirees keep AZ and TX competitive for the GOP, the metros of PA and surrounding suburbs keep PA competitive for the Dems, NC and GA become blue (atlas red) states while WI and MI become red (atlas blue) states.

GA and WI may move off the competitive list, sure, but I think MI and NC will definitely remain semi-competitive at the very least.

NH is, and I expect it will remain, somewhere around Lean D. It's fool's gold for the GOP much the same way MN is - sure, it'll come close to voting Republican and the Democratic margin will routinely be quite narrow, but that's the ceiling for the GOP.