Howard U: MI Black vote: Biden leads Trump 49-26

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

All I'll say is that the demographics used in the sampling look a little weird (see the first couple pages) and near the end it reports that a higher percentage of Republicans (15%) plan to vote for Biden than Democrats for Trump (11%): https://wtop.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Black-MI-Voters-Poll-Summary.pdf

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

The sneakers are working!

Another sneaker drop this year would be dangerous because it could de-value the originals (although I won't count out a nice October surprise drop if they get another good design).

But a Trump balaclava drop at the RNC could really do wonders for his cred. Plus it will be useful so the Capitol police can't identify people from camera footage next time.

[wbrocks67]

They literally polled Marianne Williamson in the *General Election* matchup. What are we even doing here lol

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Where is this showing up in election results though? You all continue to dismiss election results in favor of polling as if polling is more reliable than actual results. Even in the South Carolina primary Trump lost urban Black precincts to Nikki Haley so even the few Black voters already in the GOP don't seem that solid for him.

Actually those were white Republicans who were in black precincts.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

If you need proof that there is a systematic problem with polling here it is. Like come on people, if there was such a massive swing in the electoral or political patterns of black Americans it would be noticed in some way beyond polling.

What signs were there about the Hispanic swings in 2020? Do you mean like anecdotal stuff?

The Hispanic swings were about 10% nationwide and the specific places where they were most pronounced which is Miami there were plenty of signs while the RGV is pretty much ignored by most us news prior to now.

The polls are suggesting a swing of around 40-50 points which is just on another level.

The thing is, there are signs right now that Trump is going to gain with the black vote (likely not this kind of swing but well... a swing at the very least).

And the forum prior to 2018 & 2020 also ignored the signs that pointed towards hispanic swings.

[Sir Mohamed]

If you need proof that there is a systematic problem with polling here it is. Like come on people, if there was such a massive swing in the electoral or political patterns of black Americans it would be noticed in some way beyond polling.

What signs were there about the Hispanic swings in 2020? Do you mean like anecdotal stuff?

The Hispanic swings were about 10% nationwide and the specific places where they were most pronounced which is Miami there were plenty of signs while the RGV is pretty much ignored by most us news prior to now.

The polls are suggesting a swing of around 40-50 points which is just on another level.

The thing is, there are signs right now

And the forum prior to 2018 & 2020 also ignored the signs that pointed towards hispanic swings.

The question is which Hispanic subgroup and in which regions. It's not a monolith, but was treated as such for too long.

But I agree that prior 2020, I doubted there was a Hispanic R-swing because Trump seemed a horrible fit for any Hispanic to me.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

If you need proof that there is a systematic problem with polling here it is. Like come on people, if there was such a massive swing in the electoral or political patterns of black Americans it would be noticed in some way beyond polling.

What signs were there about the Hispanic swings in 2020? Do you mean like anecdotal stuff?

The Hispanic swings were about 10% nationwide and the specific places where they were most pronounced which is Miami there were plenty of signs while the RGV is pretty much ignored by most us news prior to now.

The polls are suggesting a swing of around 40-50 points which is just on another level.

The thing is, there are signs right now

And the forum prior to 2018 & 2020 also ignored the signs that pointed towards hispanic swings.

The question is which Hispanic subgroup and in which regions. It's not a monolith, but was treated as such for too long.

But I agree that prior 2020, I doubted there was a Hispanic R-swing because Trump seemed a horrible fit for any Hispanic to me.

Nothing is a "monolith".

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trash it, we haven't voted yet

[Joe McCarthy Was Right]

Where is this showing up in election results though? You all continue to dismiss election results in favor of polling as if polling is more reliable than actual results. Even in the South Carolina primary Trump lost urban Black precincts to Nikki Haley so even the few Black voters already in the GOP don't seem that solid for him.

Actually those were white Republicans who were in black precincts.

Or were they just Democrats?

I could see that being true though. Haley's vote in South Carolina looked like 2016Rubio/2012Romney/2000McCain. Rubio and Kasich had coalitions that can't be better summarized than "Republicans who live near a lot of Democrats".

[oldtimer]

If you need proof that there is a systematic problem with polling here it is. Like come on people, if there was such a massive swing in the electoral or political patterns of black Americans it would be noticed in some way beyond polling.

What signs were there about the Hispanic swings in 2020? Do you mean like anecdotal stuff?

The Hispanic swings were about 10% nationwide and the specific places where they were most pronounced which is Miami there were plenty of signs while the RGV is pretty much ignored by most us news prior to now.

The polls are suggesting a swing of around 40-50 points which is just on another level.

The thing is, there are signs right now

And the forum prior to 2018 & 2020 also ignored the signs that pointed towards hispanic swings.

The question is which Hispanic subgroup and in which regions. It's not a monolith, but was treated as such for too long.

But I agree that prior 2020, I doubted there was a Hispanic R-swing because Trump seemed a horrible fit for any Hispanic to me.

Actually it always made sense for Trump to do well with minorities:

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I said poverty stricken blks aren't moving Trump, if Trump is closing the gap Trump is winning the middle class blks that voted Bush W in 2000/2004 that's why we lost those eDays. It's their kids that are Trump voters

The poverty stricken blks like myself 1/3rd aren't moving Trump

But Trump SCOTUS GOT RID OF AFFIRMATIVE ACTION

My sister makes 80K she is a D but if she was in a Conserv state she would vote R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This poll is garbage from last night uncommitted Trump is gonna get 13 percent blk vote not 25

[Fusternino]

Sample size? Maybe my browser is just broken but can't get a lot of details about the actual poll itself.

Edit: The cohort appears to be too young and irreligious to be representative, and there's no details on weighing, etc.

[DrScholl]

Where is this showing up in election results though? You all continue to dismiss election results in favor of polling as if polling is more reliable than actual results. Even in the South Carolina primary Trump lost urban Black precincts to Nikki Haley so even the few Black voters already in the GOP don't seem that solid for him.

Actually those were white Republicans who were in black precincts.

It's unlikely that 100% of that vote was White. If Trump was gaining that many Black voters he would be seeing some increase in support even in the primary in heavily Black precincts. With the exit polls showing Trump carrying the non-White vote 56-43 it's highly likely that Haley received a strong share of what little Black vote there was in the primary.

[TML]

For reference, exit polls indicated that Trump won 6% and 7% of black Michiganders in 2016 and 2020, respectively.

[dspNY]

This was not in evidence in the Michigan primary. Hardly any votes were cast in the Republican primary in predominantly Black areas

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

You ain’t black!