Will a large majority of Barbara Lee 2024 voters be people who voted for Kevin de Leon in 2018?

[I’m not Stu]

Will a large majority of Lee 2024 voters be people who voted for de Leon in 2018?

[Oryxslayer]

No, unless all polls are wrong and Lee breaks into the middle teens or higher.

This is cause even though Lee is trying to hone in on Progressivism, her strongest soldiers are according to polls (unsurprisingly) are African Americans. African Americans are also the strongest soldiers for a Democratic incumbent, and 2018 was no exception.

Here's some very rough and quick analysis of the 2018 vote, homing in on the the states most African American areas: LA Southwest, South Oakland, Richmond, Bayview/Hunters Point. Feinstein in Blue, De Leon Yellow.

[Mr. Smith]

In the primary of 2018, possibly...in the General, not at all.

[I’m not Stu]

The African American population in California has declined over the past two decades. Wouldn't this potentially make de Leon 2018 voters the majority of Lee 2024 voters?