SC (Trafalgar) - Trump+21

[Malarkey Decider]

Trump - 59%
Haley - 38%

Conducted 2/21 - 2/23

Last Poll 63-34 2/13 - 2/15

[Roll Roons]

Trump losing such a huge chunk of the vote is a big red flag for November.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

So...what to predict now?

Trump over/under 60?

Haley over/under 40?

I want to remain flawless in my predictions on the Republican side.

https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2024R/pred.php?action=indpred&id=195

I am going with 59 Trump, 39 Haley, 2 Others.

I think she'll get at least some home state bonus and keeps Trump below 60.

[Progressive Pessimist]

They're not the gold standard anymore, but if this does end up panning out this is about as bad as possible a result for Trump.

[wbrocks67]

Trump losing such a huge chunk of the vote is a big red flag for November.

this is kind of what gets me - if we're to assume most of the Haley voters at this point are people who don't want to vote for Trump, these primary #s consistently look pretty meh for him. Yet polls in the GE are acting as if he largely doesn't have any issues. Unless most of these Haley voters will just come home for him at the end, which is possible, but I can't imagine most hard Trump supporters being willing to vote for her at this point.

[oldtimer]

Trump losing such a huge chunk of the vote is a big red flag for November.

this is kind of what gets me - if we're to assume most of the Haley voters at this point are people who don't want to vote for Trump, these primary #s consistently look pretty meh for him. Yet polls in the GE are acting as if he largely doesn't have any issues. Unless most of these Haley voters will just come home for him at the end, which is possible, but I can't imagine most hard Trump supporters being willing to vote for her at this point.

That would be convincing if it wasn't an open primary with lots of Biden voters voting Haley out of desperation.

Lets see what happens in a closed primary.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

This poll was actually pretty lit.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Oh, s***...are they the gold standard again? Lord help us all!

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Oh, s***...are they the gold standard again? Lord help us all!

For all they missed in 2022 general elections, Trafalgar was spot on in primaries that year.
Maybe we should value their polls but only for Republican primaries?