Who wins Nevada?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Trump

[oldtimer]

This is the one state where you can estimate reliably who wins and by roughly how much, by looking at trends in party registration.

Those indicate Trump by 2-3% , but the trend favours republicans so it could end up higher by election day, lets say Trump by 4%.

Party registration is not nearly as useful a tool for estimating outcomes in Nevada as it used to be. Republicans may have gained on Democrats since 2020 but it's not because they are gaining more registrants, it's because they are losing them at a slower rate than the Democrats. Meanwhile unaffiliated/minor party registrations are exploding. In Nov 2020 "other" voters made up 31% of the electorate, today it's 40%. A large share of these non major party registrants are young people who were automatically registered and never bothered to pick a party but would be more likely to vote Democratic than Republican if they bother to show up and vote.

2022 confirmed that it still is the best tool in Nevada.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump

Lol you had NV wrong in 22, Rosen is leading going bye Emerson again they said Laxalt plus 5 just like now and were wrong

Users need to take polls with a grain of salt, WE HAVEN'T VOTED YET FORGET POLLS AND QU  HAS BIDEN AHEAD

[Minnesota Mike]

This is the one state where you can estimate reliably who wins and by roughly how much, by looking at trends in party registration.

Those indicate Trump by 2-3% , but the trend favours republicans so it could end up higher by election day, lets say Trump by 4%.

Party registration is not nearly as useful a tool for estimating outcomes in Nevada as it used to be. Republicans may have gained on Democrats since 2020 but it's not because they are gaining more registrants, it's because they are losing them at a slower rate than the Democrats. Meanwhile unaffiliated/minor party registrations are exploding. In Nov 2020 "other" voters made up 31% of the electorate, today it's 40%. A large share of these non major party registrants are young people who were automatically registered and never bothered to pick a party but would be more likely to vote Democratic than Republican if they bother to show up and vote.

2022 confirmed that it still is the best tool in Nevada.

Not sure I agree. More registered Republicans than Democrats voted once election day voters were added in (I will have to dig for the actual numbers) but Democrats won more other/crossover votes to win/keep close the major races.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The reason why polls are wrong in NV Dina Titus and our D state Delegation trends Ds

The early vote trends D anyways in NV

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is the one state where you can estimate reliably who wins and by roughly how much, by looking at trends in party registration.

Those indicate Trump by 2-3% , but the trend favours republicans so it could end up higher by election day, lets say Trump by 4%.

Party registration is not nearly as useful a tool for estimating outcomes in Nevada as it used to be. Republicans may have gained on Democrats since 2020 but it's not because they are gaining more registrants, it's because they are losing them at a slower rate than the Democrats. Meanwhile unaffiliated/minor party registrations are exploding. In Nov 2020 "other" voters made up 31% of the electorate, today it's 40%. A large share of these non major party registrants are young people who were automatically registered and never bothered to pick a party but would be more likely to vote Democratic than Republican if they bother to show up and vote.

This theme seems to be showing up in a lot of states where Rs are doing well in absolute D v R advantage, but new registered Independents are increasingly favorable to Dems. This sort of makes sense; Republican is generally seen as more of an identity than Democrat in modern day politics so those on the left just don't care as strongly about affiliating with Dem party.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

This is the one state where you can estimate reliably who wins and by roughly how much, by looking at trends in party registration.

Those indicate Trump by 2-3% , but the trend favours republicans so it could end up higher by election day, lets say Trump by 4%.

Can you really though;

I remember in 2022 a lot of people analyzing the early vote said it was good for Rs but the Is leaned heavily D so it ended up being what Masto needed. Independents are a huge block in NV so even if Rs are gaining more than Ds, Is becoming more D-favorable can cancel that out.

The thing with CCM wasn't a Nevada specific issue but an underestimation across the southwest. If you told someone that Kelly would win by 5, Bennett by more than Biden, and Mike Lee by only 10, they likely wouldn't have Laxalt winning anymore. In 2018, people specifically overestimated Dean Heller.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is the one state where you can estimate reliably who wins and by roughly how much, by looking at trends in party registration.

Those indicate Trump by 2-3% , but the trend favours republicans so it could end up higher by election day, lets say Trump by 4%.

Can you really though;

I remember in 2022 a lot of people analyzing the early vote said it was good for Rs but the Is leaned heavily D so it ended up being what Masto needed. Independents are a huge block in NV so even if Rs are gaining more than Ds, Is becoming more D-favorable can cancel that out.

The thing with CCM wasn't a Nevada specific issue but an underestimation across the southwest. If you told someone that Kelly would win by 5, Bennett by more than Biden, and Mike Lee by only 10, they likely wouldn't have Laxalt winning anymore. In 2018, people specifically overestimated Dean Heller.

All our D state legislation in NC including Dina Titus got reelected Emerson was way off in NV in 22 and we have the edge on NV early vote

We go thru this every Eday with NV it's old that polls understate NV Ds


You don't contemplating that Rosen is leading in the same polls over Brown by 2 Biden isn't down 5

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The polls are just being polls it's just based on crossrabs it's not based on Eday results of 23

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is the one state where you can estimate reliably who wins and by roughly how much, by looking at trends in party registration.

Those indicate Trump by 2-3% , but the trend favours republicans so it could end up higher by election day, lets say Trump by 4%.

Can you really though;

I remember in 2022 a lot of people analyzing the early vote said it was good for Rs but the Is leaned heavily D so it ended up being what Masto needed. Independents are a huge block in NV so even if Rs are gaining more than Ds, Is becoming more D-favorable can cancel that out.

The thing with CCM wasn't a Nevada specific issue but an underestimation across the southwest. If you told someone that Kelly would win by 5, Bennett by more than Biden, and Mike Lee by only 10, they likely wouldn't have Laxalt winning anymore. In 2018, people specifically overestimated Dean Heller.

The southwest in 2022 was pretty interesting because Democrats didn't have great turnout dynamics in states like AZ and NV in large part due to Hispanic turnout dropping off, yet made up for it big time with persuasion which should probably be the biggest concern for Trump/the GOP heading into 2024 for states like AZ and NV.

In the case of UT McMullin clearly did really solid in terms of persuasion but that likely doesn't translate to Biden. It does raise an interesting strategy for Dems in redder states; perhaps just backing 3rd party independents who have a good brand and are miles better than the Republican alternative.