Which states will Democratic Senate candidates run behind Biden?

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Here's my take:

Highly likely:
Maryland - even without Hogan, there's no incumbent.
Massachusetts - Warren is a chronic underperformer and a terrible fit for MA.
Mississippi - Wicker has fairly high crossover appeal from Black voters (at least by Deep South standards).
Utah - John Curtis will far outpoll Trump.

Somewhat likely:
Arizona - Gallego is too progressive.
California - if Garvey makes the runoff, otherwise N/A.
Delaware - Blunt Rochester is not an incumbent and Biden will likely hold up well in his home state.
Nebraska (regular and special) - both Fischer and Ricketts are less offensive to Omaha suburbanites.
New Jersey - fatigue from Menendez corruption, and Kim and Murphy both could underperform some key parts of Biden's constituency.
North Dakota - a nobody is running for the Democrats.
Tennessee - Democrats are running Marquita Bradshaw.
Wyoming - same as ND.

Unlikely but not impossible:
Michigan - Slotkin will probably do better, but she may not be the nominee and she's not an incumbent.
Indiana - open seat, so hard to say, although Banks will probably do better in the suburbs than Trump.
West Virginia - the state loves Jim Justice, but do they love Trump even more? I'm not sure.

Highly unlikely:

Incumbent Democrats in the following states will have a higher degree of crossover appeal than Biden (varying levels): Connecticut, Hawaii, Maine, Minnesota, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin.

Incumbent Republicans in the following states are highly polarizing or near universally hated by everyone: Florida, Missouri, Texas.

What do you think?

[Tekken_Guy]

Andy Kim has a pretty strong likelihood of outrunning Biden but Murphy almost certainly runs behind him.

Also in TN democrats are likely to run Gloria Johnson so Blackburn goes in the same category as Cruz/Hawley/Scott.

And Gallego almost certainly runs ahead of Biden, given the likely GOP nominee is an extremely toxic and unlikable person.

[Spectator]

I don’t really see a world where Gallego runs behind Biden, given his likely opponent.