Could Montana be federally competitive in the next 20-30 years?

[ProgressiveModerate]

I mean in normal circumstances, not just with Tester.

One thing that makes Montana pretty interesting is that the state is relatively low population - any one of these smaller cities like Missoula, Bozeman, or Billings seeing a boom could have a pretty big impact. I see many paint out Western Montana in particular to have similar potential to the Western Slope in Colorado.

Another thing about MT is it actually has above-average college attainment and the state seems to slowly be moving up the ranks. As the education divide continues to grow this could marginally help Dems.

On the other hand, there are reasons to believe the state will remain solidly R. For one several of the fastest growing communities in the state are very R and haven't gotten much bluer, especially Kalispell area. Also, a 15-20 gap is still hard to close for Democrats, even if they do gain. One way to think about MT is a D victory would require MT-01 to outvote MT-02 and while I could definitely see MT-01 become swingy or D leaning thanks to places like Missoula and Bozeman, I struggle to see MT-02 becoming close enough where MT-01 can actually outvote it in a normal cycle.

And even if there is a boom, it has to be powered by liberal growth which may not necessarily be the case.

So my overall answer is Lean no. Any path to a Dem victory requires a pretty big Missoula and/or Bozeman boom.

I do think the state will remain notably closer than it's neighbors though, and maybe Dems will have small paths with the right candidates and national environments. I don't think the state is suddenly going to become R+30.

What do ya'll think?

[It’s so Joever]

20-30 years is a lot of time. I would say any state could be federally competitive within the next 30 years, and yes that includes DC. Now is it likely? Well I think the case for Montana is greater than most due to being so small that it would take numerically less people to move or switch sides for it to happen and the possibility of a massive Montana boom like with Colorado (although I don’t think this exactly happens it’s possible)

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

20-30 years is a lot of time. I would say any state could be federally competitive within the next 30 years, and yes that includes DC. Now is it likely? Well I think the case for Montana is greater than most due to being so small that it would take numerically less people to move or switch sides for it to happen and the possibility of a massive Montana boom like with Colorado (although I don’t think this exactly happens it’s possible)

Yea this exactly. 28 years ago West Virginia was a pretty reliable democratic state and voted to the left of California, New Hampshire, and Colorado.

[ottermax]

This feels a little silly....

Montana has had at least one Democratic senator since 1899, so practically statehood....

It had Democratic governors from 2005-2021...

Montana has had Republican house members and a presidential voting record for a long time that is true.

But overall it has been competitive and continues to be so...

The last few years have been very cautionary for Democrats though. It is possible it is just a blip but it feels more like Montana is drifting right in a way that may be more permanent due to bigger trends that have only been delayed by the very liberal small cities and college towns that have very high turnout.

The big growth areas for population in Montana have been right-leaning transplants, some "techie" transplants, and oil workers... two out of three of these groups definitely make it difficult for Democrats to compete at least with the current coalition.

Interestingly some of the right-leaning transplants (lots of firefighters from California have moved to Montana while still working in CA for example) may become more liberal as they adjust to a new environment and want to pay for services like road, sewer, electrical infrastructure that they were used to.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

In 20-30 years I think anything is realistically possible honestly. But at that point we might see Rhode Island or Delaware start being competitive too so it's very difficult to make a call. But in the last 15 years Montana went from a McCain+2.5 state with a Dem trifecta and 2 senate seats to probably a Trump+20 state in 2024 with an R trifecta, and Tester on the verge of losing that Class 1 seat. So it's not going into Dem's favor right now at least.

Liberal migration might be happening but those people are also dispersing themselves into Idaho and Utah, which means there lacks a heavy influx of concentration in a single state. There is also no major city in Montana unlike Boise or SLC to really accelerate trends. This means that the Dems need decent amounts of rural support to stay competitive.