AZ-SEN (Noble Predictive): Gallego +10 / +3

[wbrocks67]

Gallego (D) 47%
Lake (R) 37%
Unsure 16%

Gallego (D) 34%
Lake (R) 31%
Sinema (I) 23%
Unsure 12%

Favs:
Gallego 47/26 (+21)
Sinema 44/42 (+2)
Lake 40/49 (-9)

https://www.noblepredictiveinsights.com/post/arizona-s-electorate-allergic-to-maga-brand-in-2024-us-senate-race

[wbrocks67]

Kari Lake has a 55/33 favorable rating here with 18-34 year olds.

People really need to get a grip to the fact that young voter samples right now are an absolute mess.

[Sir Mohamed]

Lean D. Gallego won't win by 10 pts., but by more than Hobbs defeated Lake.

[Roll Roons]

Likely D. I’m willing to die on that hill.

[Lambsbread]

SUBSCRIBE!

[Spectator]

Kari Lake has a 55/33 favorable rating here with 18-34 year olds.

People really need to get a grip to the fact that young voter samples right now are an absolute mess.

This is the thing you focus on in this poll and not the fact that Lake is going to get destroyed?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Kari Lake has a 55/33 favorable rating here with 18-34 year olds.

People really need to get a grip to the fact that young voter samples right now are an absolute mess.

This is the thing you focus on in this poll and not the fact that Lake is going to get destroyed?

Well, he's right lol. There's something seriously wrong with polling crosstabs. Lake lost the 18-29 year old vote by 42 points to Hobbs in '22.

[Spectator]

Kari Lake has a 55/33 favorable rating here with 18-34 year olds.

People really need to get a grip to the fact that young voter samples right now are an absolute mess.

This is the thing you focus on in this poll and not the fact that Lake is going to get destroyed?

Well, he's right lol. There's something seriously wrong with polling crosstabs. Lake lost the 18-29 year old vote by 42 points to Hobbs in '22.

Never focus on crosstabs, it’s a waste of time. The headline is what’s important, and the headline to take away is that Kari Lake is on track to do 10 points worse than Trump. And there is precedent for that happening, too. Joe Apriao lost by double digits even as Trump was winning Maricopa County.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The 18-34 subgroup has a sample size of 204, which is a MoE of about +/-7% (on each candidate, don't forget!)  People are REALLY drawing inferences from that?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The 18-34 subgroup has a sample size of 204, which is a MoE of about +/-7% (on each candidate, don't forget!)  People are REALLY drawing inferences from that?

Well there are people on this website (we all know who) who have convinced themselves that a massive realignment is currently happening because they're treating the cross tabs as gospel.

[wbrocks67]

The 18-34 subgroup has a sample size of 204, which is a MoE of about +/-7% (on each candidate, don't forget!)  People are REALLY drawing inferences from that?

Not in this one poll; my point was more of a general in that this is something that is happening constantly right now in all types of polling, and people keep dismissing it. It's clear that this particular crosstab is even *messier* than most other types right now.

[wbrocks67]

Kari Lake has a 55/33 favorable rating here with 18-34 year olds.

People really need to get a grip to the fact that young voter samples right now are an absolute mess.

This is the thing you focus on in this poll and not the fact that Lake is going to get destroyed?

LOL well we know Gallego won't really win by 10, so it's a moot point for right now. I don't think AZ-SEN polling should really be taken that seriously until Sinema is officially out of the race and the choices are really locked in.

[Spectator]

Kari Lake has a 55/33 favorable rating here with 18-34 year olds.

People really need to get a grip to the fact that young voter samples right now are an absolute mess.

This is the thing you focus on in this poll and not the fact that Lake is going to get destroyed?

LOL well we know Gallego won't really win by 10, so it's a moot point for right now. I don't think AZ-SEN polling should really be taken that seriously until Sinema is officially out of the race and the choices are really locked in.

I’d take the toplines more seriously than the crosstabs of any poll…

[Vosem]

There's been enough consistent polling of this race that it's got to be Leans D at this point, yeah.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gallego is a solid Marine Vet and Sinema cost Ds the H last time with obstruction of Voting Rights

[Epaminondas]

If the AZ legislature flips thanks to Gallego coattails, Arizona will stay blue after 2028 even Trump gets a last hurrah in 2024.

[Torie]

Update on Sinema. Her actions seem inconsistent with an intent to run.

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema is almost out of time to launch a re-election campaign.

Why it matters: The first-term senator, who left the Democratic Party in 2022, has remained tight-lipped about her political future.
If she decides to run, she'll set up a rare three-way competitive contest in a race that could determine control of the U.S. Senate.
The latest: Signature-filing deadlines for candidates were moved up a week as part of the Legislature's recent fix to avoid election deadline issues, further tightening Sinema's window to qualify for the ballot.

Zoom in: She must file about 42,000 valid signatures from Arizona voters by April 1. That's six times the signatures required for candidates running with a party.

Before she can start collecting signatures, she must file a "statement of interest" with the Arizona Secretary of State's Office, which she has not done.
The intrigue: Local consultant Meghan Cox, who has organized major signature campaigns, tells Axios Phoenix Sinema would realistically need to get 60,000-65,000 signatures to ensure enough are valid.

That's possible if the campaign starts in the next two weeks, she says.
1 big number: It would likely cost Sinema's campaign at least $1 million just to qualify for the ballot, Cox says.

With such an abbreviated timeline, Sinema would be hard-pressed to organize a volunteer operation, meaning she'd have to pay for almost every signature, Cox says.
She'd almost certainly need to bring in out-of-state paid petition gatherers and cover their lodging during Arizona's peak March visitor season.
Yes, but: Sinema has the money to pull it off with more than $10 million cash on hand. That's about $4 million more than her closest potential competitor, Democratic U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego.

However, her fundraising has stalled significantly since she left the Democratic party.

She most recently reported her worst quarter of the cycle, bringing in less than $600,000, compared with Gallego's $3.3 million and GOP candidate Kari Lake's $2.1 million.
Of note: Sinema's campaign did not respond to our request for comment.

What we're watching: Sinema's challenges don't stop after making the ballot. An Axios Phoenix review found no independent candidates have won state or federal races in the state's history.

Although independents constitute 34% of Arizona voters — more than registered Democrats and almost equal to Republicans — they don't vote as a monolith in the same way party-aligned voters do.
Longtime Phoenix politico Chuck Coughlin says independent voters' only guaranteed commonality is they don't want to be a member of a party. They have varying degrees of opinions on all candidates and issues.
The bottom line: "It's very difficult to use them as a base," Coughlin tells us.