Compuzled_One
Rookie
Posts: 240
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« on: February 22, 2024, 08:30:21 AM » |
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It's a reasonable assumption that Trump will run again in 2028 if he looses this year and is alive. Given him loosing that much would mean he got rejected twice in a row, the fundamentals do not look good for him in the general, and he'd be severely damaged in the primary (though I feel he'd still have an enormous chance to win if he's not under house arrest or in prison).
Now, what would it take for him to win in 2028 in your eyes, after being rejected twice over?
For my thoughts, I think he'd be the heavy favorite primary wise, but there'd be a better chance of him being deposed than this year (I'd say about 5-10%, and basically 100% if he's in prison or house arrest at the time, which means he can't whip up the crowd). By this point, he'd have lost twice and likely lost some of his "shine", so to speak. In addition, Trump has attacked Biden so much that the wider public views the two as sitcom-level nemeses, and with Biden not running again or, god forbid, being dead, that'd loose at least some appeal. Also, we have already have seen that his opponents this time learned they had to consolidate from 2016. In addition, Haley seems to have gotten that you do need to attack Trump to rise in the polls and chip at his support-she just learned it to late for any momentum. I think the field would consolidate in 2028 again and that someone who attacks Trump since the beginning will emerge as his main opponent-no idea who it is, but I feel some MAGA-lite governor could work well. That being said, the fight for the nomination would be tough, even if this person wins in New Hampshire.
Now, general wise, Trump would definitely be hit by Harris or whoever the Dems nominate with the good old "You can vote for Trump anytime!" remark, he'd struggle in the debates against his near-certainly younger opponent, his usual voter base might be shrunk, and he'd probably bring up 2020 or his trials or some other issues that'd have lost luster by then. Overall, it wouldn't look good-the only way he can realistically win is if there's some massive economic downturn Biden can't fix or if his opponent is caught doing some enormously horrid crime. As in, hiring an assassin or something.
What do you think?
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