MT-SEN: Who wins?

[SnowLabrador]

My prediction is Sheehy +7. I think Tester has more crossover appeal than Bullock did in 2020, but Montana hates incumbents at the presidential level, so I expect the state to be like Trump +20 in November. Even if Tester is able to increase his crossover support from 2018, increased Republican turnout is going to bury him.

What do you all think?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Sheehy + 4 for now as the median outcome, but I see a pretty wide range of realistic outcomes here.

If Rs throw tons of money here while lacking a coherent message, I could see a ME-Sen 2020 sort of redux where Tester is able to keep enough of a brand to get the crossover support he needs while Sheehy is just seen as a wanna-be politician who doesn't really care about Montana.

On the opposite end, if Rs are very effective at tying Tester to Biden and Tester can't maintain his independent brand, I could see him doing even worse than Bullock losing by lower double digits (albiet still outrunning Biden).

Campaign and messaging matter a ton in this race in particular because Tester has a powerful brand and he needs to maintain it to get enough crossover support to be competitive. This shouldn't be a particularly hard seat to flip if Rs play their cards right, but given their recent track record a screw up is very realistic.

[TDAS04]

I want to say Tester +1, because that's the outcome I hope for. The objective answer, however, is that Tester is more likely-than-not to lose this time, and I would not be surprised if Sheehy takes him out by 5-6.

[SilverStar]

Tester +2/3

[Del Tachi]

Just realized how much of a stud Sheehy is.  Totally has my support.  Will definitely see about me and the hubs maxing out our contributions to him this year!

Still tacky that he posed with her shirt off following that plane crash that killed his flight instructor though, haha

[ProgressiveModerate]

Just realized how much of a stud Sheehy is.  Totally has my support.  Will definitely see about me and the hubs maxing out our contributions to him this year!

Still tacky that he posed with her shirt off following that plane crash that killed his flight instructor though, haha

One thing I think helps Sheehy is that compared to many politicians, Sheehy has the vibes of a real or even idealistic person; a relatively young person with a wife, a few young kids, and a big cattle ranch who was also a navy seal and started a business. If Dems want to win the race they're going to have to attack that image and paint him as an out of touch elitist.

There definitely are many points of attack, for instance he comes from pretty significant family money and hasn't lived in Montana all that long.

[TML]

Just realized how much of a stud Sheehy is.  Totally has my support.  Will definitely see about me and the hubs maxing out our contributions to him this year!

Still tacky that he posed with her shirt off following that plane crash that killed his flight instructor though, haha

One thing I think helps Sheehy is that compared to many politicians, Sheehy has the vibes of a real or even idealistic person; a relatively young person with a wife, a few young kids, and a big cattle ranch who was also a navy seal and started a business. If Dems want to win the race they're going to have to attack that image and paint him as an out of touch elitist.

There definitely are many points of attack, for instance he comes from pretty significant family money and hasn't lived in Montana all that long.

Regarding this point, another poster has pointed out on this forum that Sheehy has the potential to be framed into Denny Rehberg 2.0 by virtue of him being coronated by DC-based insider politicians.

[Yellowhammer]

Tester. Sheehy is an establishment cutout who will run behind Trump by double digits.

[Spectator]

Gut and mind are saying Sheehy, but I think there’s an opening for Tester. Senate Republicans seem intent on making 2022 look like a good year in comparison

[Lambsbread]

Tester and he retires in '30, thus ceding control of that seat to Republicans for at least a generation

[Mr. Smith]

Sheehy.

He's the new Conrad Burns afaict , the undeserving insider that wins just because the President does well.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Tester can win, but so can Sheehy. I think it could be close though, like Sheehy+3 or Tester >1%, or something.

Pure tossup.