MD-SEN(NRSC) Hogan+16/22
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April 28, 2024, 03:31:20 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

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  2024 Senate & House Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
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Author Topic: MD-SEN(NRSC) Hogan+16/22  (Read 1220 times)
Spectator
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« Reply #25 on: February 21, 2024, 05:00:54 PM »
Quote from: Holmes on February 21, 2024, 03:21:03 PM
People who think Hogan will win a statewide election for US Senate as a Republican in one of the most Democratic states in the country are more deluded than the people who thought Hofmeister would win in Oklahoma in 2022.

That’s actually a good recent example. Extremely popular/unpopular person makes race in R/D+30 state competitive in polling but end sup losing by 15%.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
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« Reply #26 on: February 21, 2024, 06:31:19 PM »
I'm old enough to remember when Evan Bayh was leading the polls by 21 points in July 2016.
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NYDem
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« Reply #27 on: February 22, 2024, 11:29:55 AM »
Bredesen isn't a bad comparison. Hogan will massively overperform the Republican baseline but I seriously doubt he wins. 54-46 loss would be a very good night for him.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #28 on: February 22, 2024, 11:50:34 AM »
In a close race Trone wins 52/48
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Lambsbread
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« Reply #29 on: February 22, 2024, 11:53:07 AM »
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #30 on: February 22, 2024, 11:56:35 AM »
The D internal I posted had the same result but Throne leading
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UncleSam
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« Reply #31 on: February 29, 2024, 08:03:12 PM »
No Hogan isn’t likely to win, but I don’t think this is Safe D like it should be. Likely D for now, might move to Lean if Hogan keeps polling like this when Dems find a real candidate.

This does feel like shades of Evan Bayh, though.
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MRS DONNA SHALALA
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« Reply #32 on: March 02, 2024, 12:15:36 PM »
Quote from: Roll Roons on February 21, 2024, 12:45:02 PM

Oh look, Democrat gaslighting:


https://emilyslist.org/news/joyce-elliott-leads-rep.-french-hill-in-arkansas-2nd-district/

You're right, we should treat partisan polls like this one with skepticism, if not outright disbelief. Thanks for proving his point!
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #33 on: March 02, 2024, 12:20:59 PM »
« Edited: March 02, 2024, 12:33:58 PM by Roll Roons »
Quote from: MRS DONNA SHALALA on March 02, 2024, 12:15:36 PM
Quote from: Roll Roons on February 21, 2024, 12:45:02 PM

Oh look, Democrat gaslighting:


https://emilyslist.org/news/joyce-elliott-leads-rep.-french-hill-in-arkansas-2nd-district/

You're right, we should treat partisan polls like this one with skepticism, if not outright disbelief. Thanks for proving his point!

Is this meant to be a gotcha? I never said I thought this poll would be anywhere close to what the final margin will likely be.

My point was that you can't say it's "gaslighting" when Republicans release overly favorable partisan polls because Democrats do the exact same thing.
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MRS DONNA SHALALA
cuddlebuns
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« Reply #34 on: March 02, 2024, 06:42:20 PM »
Quote from: Roll Roons on March 02, 2024, 12:20:59 PM
Quote from: MRS DONNA SHALALA on March 02, 2024, 12:15:36 PM
Quote from: Roll Roons on February 21, 2024, 12:45:02 PM

Oh look, Democrat gaslighting:


https://emilyslist.org/news/joyce-elliott-leads-rep.-french-hill-in-arkansas-2nd-district/

You're right, we should treat partisan polls like this one with skepticism, if not outright disbelief. Thanks for proving his point!

Is this meant to be a gotcha? I never said I thought this poll would be anywhere close to what the final margin will likely be.

My point was that you can't say it's "gaslighting" when Republicans release overly favorable partisan polls because Democrats do the exact same thing.

Yes, and the Dem polls were gaslighty too. You absolutely can still call it gaslighting, no matter which party does it - that was my point.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #35 on: March 03, 2024, 04:05:21 PM »
We need another poll
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Farmlands
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« Reply #36 on: March 04, 2024, 11:37:39 AM »
Quote from: MRS DONNA SHALALA on March 02, 2024, 06:42:20 PM
Quote from: Roll Roons on March 02, 2024, 12:20:59 PM
Quote from: MRS DONNA SHALALA on March 02, 2024, 12:15:36 PM
Quote from: Roll Roons on February 21, 2024, 12:45:02 PM

Oh look, Democrat gaslighting:


https://emilyslist.org/news/joyce-elliott-leads-rep.-french-hill-in-arkansas-2nd-district/

You're right, we should treat partisan polls like this one with skepticism, if not outright disbelief. Thanks for proving his point!

Is this meant to be a gotcha? I never said I thought this poll would be anywhere close to what the final margin will likely be.

My point was that you can't say it's "gaslighting" when Republicans release overly favorable partisan polls because Democrats do the exact same thing.

Yes, and the Dem polls were gaslighty too. You absolutely can still call it gaslighting, no matter which party does it - that was my point.

Not what the word means. Unless you think that the poll makers are deliberately posting these polls to confuse you and make you question your grasp on reality.
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