MD-SEN(NRSC) Hogan+16/22

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1760276699638362591?t=MJLmlI0PVHdNV2XbnIf...

[Matty]

I strongly support hogan, but his ceiling is maybe losing by high single digits.

[Sir Mohamed]

This will be funny to bump on on November 6 after Hogan lost with something like 55-42%.

[Spectator]

Must be the same Patrick Ruffini pollster that had DeSantis +30 in the primary in early 2023.

[Sestak]

How stupid are the people of Maryland?

[Roll Roons]

I strongly support hogan, but his ceiling is maybe losing by high single digits.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NRSCC

[Duke of York]

Might be just name recognition at this point. I don't think hes going to win the general election.

[SnowLabrador]

How stupid are the people of Maryland?

Fixed that for you.

But yeah, Hogan will win. This is a bigger lead than Bredesen or Bullock ever had.

[Duke of York]

How stupid are the people of Maryland?

Fixed that for you.

But yeah, Hogan will win. This is a bigger lead than Bredesen or Bullock ever had.

Do ever not doom? Maryland is also a much bluer state than Tennessee or Montana. It's very hard for a Republican to win. If other polls show a similar lead then i'll be concerned.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Woah! Safe D.

[SnowLabrador]

How stupid are the people of Maryland?

Fixed that for you.

But yeah, Hogan will win. This is a bigger lead than Bredesen or Bullock ever had.

Do ever not doom? Maryland is also a much bluer state than Tennessee or Montana. It's very hard for a Republican to win. If other polls show a similar lead then i'll be concerned.

Hogan didn't repeatedly deny that he'd run for Senate (unlike Bullock), and his last election wasn't over a decade ago (unlike Bredesen.) Things can change, but right now he's in a much stronger position than either of those two examples.

[Duke of York]

How stupid are the people of Maryland?

Fixed that for you.

But yeah, Hogan will win. This is a bigger lead than Bredesen or Bullock ever had.

Do ever not doom? Maryland is also a much bluer state than Tennessee or Montana. It's very hard for a Republican to win. If other polls show a similar lead then i'll be concerned.

Hogan didn't repeatedly deny that he'd run for Senate (unlike Bullock), and his last election wasn't over a decade ago (unlike Bredesen.) Things can change, but right now he's in a much stronger position than either of those two examples.

The two main candidates on the Democratic side are not super well known statewide. That will change once the nomination is decided. Maryland has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 1980.

[NerdyBohemian]

Oh look more Republican gaslighting.

[Roll Roons]

Oh look more Republican gaslighting.

Oh look, Democrat gaslighting:
https://twitter.com/patricksvitek/status/1320748939751026690
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1316264667971571712?ref_src=twsrc%5Etf...
https://emilyslist.org/news/joyce-elliott-leads-rep.-french-hill-in-arkansas-2nd-district/

[politicallefty]

Oh look more Republican gaslighting.

Oh look, Democrat gaslighting:
[SNIP]
https://emilyslist.org/news/joyce-elliott-leads-rep.-french-hill-in-arkansas-2nd-district/

I think those polls (at least the Texas poll) were reflective of what everyone was seeing at that time, Republicans included. The consensus was a double-digit seat gain for Democrats nationwide, not a double-digit seat loss. The presidential polling in Texas was also showing a dead heat too. Also keep in mind how close the dam was to bursting in Texas in 2018 (six Republican-won seats were won by less than 5%).

As for this poll, it's no cause for alarm. It's a Republican internal from three weeks ago and the laws of political gravity sometimes take a bit to assert themselves. If the polling looks like anything close to this in September, then I'll light my hair on fire.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

After yesterday Trump plus 9 I don't believe this poll

[President Johnson]

This will be funny to bump on on November 6 after Hogan lost with something like 55-42%.

Yeah, reminds me a little of Republican pollsters in Washington state in 2022.

Even though it's not going to happen, it would actually be hilarious for Hogan to win while Tester and Brown hold on and Democrats lose the majority because of this one.

[Holmes]

People who think Hogan will win a statewide election for US Senate as a Republican in one of the most Democratic states in the country are more deluded than the people who thought Hofmeister would win in Oklahoma in 2022.

[Del Tachi]

I strongly support hogan, but his ceiling is maybe losing by high single digits.

[DrScholl]

To get a Democrat below 30% or even below 40% in Maryland takes some pretty creative math.

[Duke of York]

To get a Democrat below 30% or even below 40% in Maryland takes some pretty creative math.

Even Ben Jealous got 43 percent in 2022.

[politicallefty]

Even though it's not going to happen, it would actually be hilarious for Hogan to win while Tester and Brown hold on and Democrats lose the majority because of this one.

I clearly do not understand the German sense of humour.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Senators Bullock, Bredesen, and Thompson endorse this poll.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This will be funny to bump on on November 6 after Hogan lost with something like 55-42%.

Yeah, reminds me a little of Republican pollsters in Washington state in 2022.

Even though it's not going to happen, it would actually be hilarious for Hogan to win while Tester and Brown hold on and Democrats lose the majority because of this one.

We are targeting FL and TX