Emerson: GA Trump +6

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1760269404607050189

[GAinDC]

Yup. I can buy Trump getting 48% of the vote in Georgia.

[Devils30]

The idea Biden is doing 3 points better in NC is absurd.

[wbrocks67]

“Biden leads among Black voters, 65% to 20%, with 16% undecided, whereas Trump leads among white voters, 63% to 30%, with 7% undecided,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted.

Independent voter break for President Biden, 44% to 39%, with 18% undecided.
Voters under 30 are split: 42% support Trump, 41% support Biden, and 17% are undecided.

--

It's kind of amazing how two of these results are perfectly normal and realistic, esp compared to 2020 (Whites & Indies) while the other two are just absurdly off (Black voters + young voters)

[Redban]

Yup. I can buy Trump getting 48% of the vote in Georgia.

Just like all the Republican primary analysts figured "Trump has 48%, so if everyone drops out, the one non-Trump candidate will get 52%!!!"

What happens, in practice, is that Trump will get some of the remainder too. It's not possible for Biden to get a 100% sweep of the leftover, especially in a field that will be crowded with third-party / independent presence.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The idea Biden is doing 3 points better in NC is absurd.

They had two S races in 20 and there is not any S race in 24 in GA that's why

[Spectator]

GA is not gonna vote 3 points to the right of NC. I can see an argument where NC votes left of GA due to higher turnout amongst NC Dems (exisistential threat of Mark Robinson winningthe gubernatorial race) but it won't be that pronounced.

[Devils30]

The idea Biden is doing 3 points better in NC is absurd.

They had two S races in 20 and there is not any S race in 24 in GA that's why

The Senate races do not drive presidential turnout, its the other way around.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

GA is not gonna vote 3 points to the right of NC. I can see an argument where NC votes left of GA due to higher turnout amongst NC Dems (exisistential threat of Mark Robinson winningthe gubernatorial race) but it won't be that pronounced.

There hasn't been two duplicates maps in a row

[Devils30]

GA is not gonna vote 3 points to the right of NC. I can see an argument where NC votes left of GA due to higher turnout amongst NC Dems (exisistential threat of Mark Robinson winningthe gubernatorial race) but it won't be that pronounced.

There hasn't been two duplicates maps in a row

No but rarely are there remtaches. Each candidate usually has at least a somewhat unique coalition. I don't think a duplicate map to 2020 is out of the question at all this year.

[2016]

The idea Biden is doing 3 points better in NC is absurd.

They had two S races in 20 and there is not any S race in 24 in GA that's why

The Senate races do not drive presidential turnout, its the other way around.

Generally speaking you are right and it's true that Presidential Races drive Turnout. That being said Georgia in 2020 was in a very unique situation that Reverend Raphael Warnock was running for Senate. On top of that he came from the same Church as Martin Luther King and combined with the Abrams Polilical Machine she built in GA during her 2018 Race against Kemp it helped Biden greatly to win the State and the Trump Campaign probably underestimated that.

I know I am repeating myself but if Bidens JA stays as low as it is right now he will not win States like North Carolina, Georgia or Arizona even against an unpopular & criminalistic former President like Trump. The Biden Campaign needs to do something about it because if Biden does lose AZ, GA and NC he has no margin for error when it comes to the Democrats Blue Wall Midwestern Firewall States. A loss in even one of those States (MN, WI, MI or PA) would give Trump the Presidency.

[Devils30]

The idea Biden is doing 3 points better in NC is absurd.

They had two S races in 20 and there is not any S race in 24 in GA that's why

The Senate races do not drive presidential turnout, its the other way around.

Generally speaking you are right and it's true that Presidential Races drive Turnout. That being said Georgia in 2020 was in a very unique situation that Reverend Raphael Warnock was running for Senate. On top of that he came from the same Church as Martin Luther King and combined with the Abrams Polilical Machine she built in GA during her 2018 Race against Kemp it helped Biden greatly to win the State and the Trump Campaign probably underestimated that.

I know I am repeating myself but if Bidens JA stays as low as it is right now he will not win States like North Carolina, Georgia or Arizona even against an unpopular & criminalistic former President like Trump. The Biden Campaign needs to do something about it because if Biden does lose AZ, GA and NC he has no margin for error when it comes to the Democrats Blue Wall Midwestern Firewall States. A loss in even one of those States (MN, WI, MI or PA) would give Trump the Presidency.

The Warnock race was a large primary on election day, everyone knew it was going to a runoff. This was not what drove turnout whatsoever.

[GAinDC]

The idea Biden is doing 3 points better in NC is absurd.

They had two S races in 20 and there is not any S race in 24 in GA that's why

The Senate races do not drive presidential turnout, its the other way around.

Generally speaking you are right and it's true that Presidential Races drive Turnout. That being said Georgia in 2020 was in a very unique situation that Reverend Raphael Warnock was running for Senate. On top of that he came from the same Church as Martin Luther King and combined with the Abrams Polilical Machine she built in GA during her 2018 Race against Kemp it helped Biden greatly to win the State and the Trump Campaign probably underestimated that.

I know I am repeating myself but if Bidens JA stays as low as it is right now he will not win States like North Carolina, Georgia or Arizona even against an unpopular & criminalistic former President like Trump. The Biden Campaign needs to do something about it because if Biden does lose AZ, GA and NC he has no margin for error when it comes to the Democrats Blue Wall Midwestern Firewall States. A loss in even one of those States (MN, WI, MI or PA) would give Trump the Presidency.

The Warnock race was a large primary on election day, everyone knew it was going to a runoff. This was not what drove turnout whatsoever.

THANK YOU!

People keep parroting this ridiculous argument. It's revisionist history.

And even if it was the case, Warnock is still in the Senate and will campaign for Biden this year.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Yup. I can buy Trump getting 48% of the vote in Georgia.

Hes getting 51 vs Newsom and Harris.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Compared to the other 5 swing states, Georgia is very different - demographically and politically. For lack of a better analogy, if AZ, MI, NV, PA, and WI are running Windows than Georgia is macOS. It's the only state where high turnout probably helps Biden on-net, and college educated white women will be voting Trump by a decent margin.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Georgia is not voting to the right of North Carolina again.