Could Democrats win a 2024 Trump +30 House Seat in 2026?

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Based on fundamentals and polling, 2024 seems to be tracking at around Trump +5. 2026 fundamentals seem to be about D +15. This gives about a 20 point shift, and Democrats might get lucky in a set that's more than Trump +20.

[SnowLabrador]

Probably not, but who knows.

[JoeyJoeJoe]

Based on fundamentals and polling, 2024 seems to be tracking at around Trump +5. 2026 fundamentals seem to be about D +15. This gives about a 20 point shift, and Democrats might get lucky in a set that's more than Trump +20.

Easily, they just need to switch to the GOP before then

[Pericles]

Sure, if you just start making up numbers.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

How do we have any indication of what 2026 fundamentals will be?  I agree that they'll likely favor whichever party loses the presidential election, but I'd imagine we're way too polarized for either party to win a popular vote by fifteen points.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

How do we have any indication of what 2026 fundamentals will be?  I agree that they'll likely favor whichever party loses the presidential election, but I'd imagine we're way too polarized for either party to win a popular vote by fifteen points.

2018 was D +8.6, and the economy is likely to be much worse than 2018. Republicans have lost a lot of high propensity voters since then as well (trading them for low propensity voters).

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Democrats will win the 2027 SC 3 special election

[Progressive Pessimist]

The previous office-holder would have to be implicated in a major scandal, and occur in a special election.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Based on fundamentals and polling, 2024 seems to be tracking at around Trump +5. 2026 fundamentals seem to be about D +15. This gives about a 20 point shift, and Democrats might get lucky in a set that's more than Trump +20.

Lol these are polls not results and Biden will win

[Pres Mike]

How do we have any indication of what 2026 fundamentals will be?  I agree that they'll likely favor whichever party loses the presidential election, but I'd imagine we're way too polarized for either party to win a popular vote by fifteen points.

2018 was D +8.6, and the economy is likely to be much worse than 2018. Republicans have lost a lot of high propensity voters since then as well (trading them for low propensity voters).

Why would the economy be much worst in 2026? The economy is doing gang busters right now. It'll probably slow down but come on

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

How do we have any indication of what 2026 fundamentals will be?  I agree that they'll likely favor whichever party loses the presidential election, but I'd imagine we're way too polarized for either party to win a popular vote by fifteen points.

2018 was D +8.6, and the economy is likely to be much worse than 2018. Republicans have lost a lot of high propensity voters since then as well (trading them for low propensity voters).

Why would the economy be much worst in 2026? The economy is doing gang busters right now. It'll probably slow down but come on

Highly underwater CRE loans mature, causing a lot of banks to go under. A lot of companies have to refinance debt at higher interest rates, which they can't, so they go bankrupt.

[Pres Mike]

How do we have any indication of what 2026 fundamentals will be?  I agree that they'll likely favor whichever party loses the presidential election, but I'd imagine we're way too polarized for either party to win a popular vote by fifteen points.

2018 was D +8.6, and the economy is likely to be much worse than 2018. Republicans have lost a lot of high propensity voters since then as well (trading them for low propensity voters).

Why would the economy be much worst in 2026? The economy is doing gang busters right now. It'll probably slow down but come on

Highly underwater CRE loans mature, causing a lot of banks to go under. A lot of companies have to refinance debt at higher interest rates, which they can't, so they go bankrupt.

Of course I have no idea what the future has in store, things can always get worst. But this reminds me when folks on atlas predicted a recession back in 2019. We currently have the best economy in 30 years

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

How do we have any indication of what 2026 fundamentals will be?  I agree that they'll likely favor whichever party loses the presidential election, but I'd imagine we're way too polarized for either party to win a popular vote by fifteen points.

2018 was D +8.6, and the economy is likely to be much worse than 2018. Republicans have lost a lot of high propensity voters since then as well (trading them for low propensity voters).

Why would the economy be much worst in 2026? The economy is doing gang busters right now. It'll probably slow down but come on

Highly underwater CRE loans mature, causing a lot of banks to go under. A lot of companies have to refinance debt at higher interest rates, which they can't, so they go bankrupt.

Of course I have no idea what the future has in store, things can always get worst. But this reminds me when folks on atlas predicted a recession back in 2019. We currently have the best economy in 30 years

Most people think the current state of the economy is bad and getting worse. The best economy in the last 30 years was 1999.

[Pres Mike]

How do we have any indication of what 2026 fundamentals will be?  I agree that they'll likely favor whichever party loses the presidential election, but I'd imagine we're way too polarized for either party to win a popular vote by fifteen points.

2018 was D +8.6, and the economy is likely to be much worse than 2018. Republicans have lost a lot of high propensity voters since then as well (trading them for low propensity voters).

Why would the economy be much worst in 2026? The economy is doing gang busters right now. It'll probably slow down but come on

Highly underwater CRE loans mature, causing a lot of banks to go under. A lot of companies have to refinance debt at higher interest rates, which they can't, so they go bankrupt.

Of course I have no idea what the future has in store, things can always get worst. But this reminds me when folks on atlas predicted a recession back in 2019. We currently have the best economy in 30 years

Most people think the current state of the economy is bad and getting worse. The best economy in the last 30 years was 1999.

Public perception of the eocnomy is bad, no doubt. Inflation hurts

But we have high growth and low unemployment, at levels not seen since the late 90s

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

How do we have any indication of what 2026 fundamentals will be?  I agree that they'll likely favor whichever party loses the presidential election, but I'd imagine we're way too polarized for either party to win a popular vote by fifteen points.

2018 was D +8.6, and the economy is likely to be much worse than 2018. Republicans have lost a lot of high propensity voters since then as well (trading them for low propensity voters).

Why would the economy be much worst in 2026? The economy is doing gang busters right now. It'll probably slow down but come on

Highly underwater CRE loans mature, causing a lot of banks to go under. A lot of companies have to refinance debt at higher interest rates, which they can't, so they go bankrupt.

Of course I have no idea what the future has in store, things can always get worst. But this reminds me when folks on atlas predicted a recession back in 2019. We currently have the best economy in 30 years

Most people think the current state of the economy is bad and getting worse. The best economy in the last 30 years was 1999.

Public perception of the eocnomy is bad, no doubt. Inflation hurts

But we have high growth and low unemployment, at levels not seen since the late 90s

I could easily get high growth and low unemployment by paying people to dig ditches and fill them back up through deficit spending. The key is living standards, which have been declining and getting worse.

[Pres Mike]

How do we have any indication of what 2026 fundamentals will be?  I agree that they'll likely favor whichever party loses the presidential election, but I'd imagine we're way too polarized for either party to win a popular vote by fifteen points.

2018 was D +8.6, and the economy is likely to be much worse than 2018. Republicans have lost a lot of high propensity voters since then as well (trading them for low propensity voters).

Why would the economy be much worst in 2026? The economy is doing gang busters right now. It'll probably slow down but come on

Highly underwater CRE loans mature, causing a lot of banks to go under. A lot of companies have to refinance debt at higher interest rates, which they can't, so they go bankrupt.

Of course I have no idea what the future has in store, things can always get worst. But this reminds me when folks on atlas predicted a recession back in 2019. We currently have the best economy in 30 years

Most people think the current state of the economy is bad and getting worse. The best economy in the last 30 years was 1999.

Public perception of the eocnomy is bad, no doubt. Inflation hurts

But we have high growth and low unemployment, at levels not seen since the late 90s

I could easily get high growth and low unemployment by paying people to dig ditches and fill them back up through deficit spending. The key is living standards, which have been declining and getting worse.

Than we need more government intervention. We have a shortage of affordable housing, so the government needs to do a massive home building program like after WW2. We need to pass more pro union laws, like the PRO Act. We need to pass the public option to lower healthcare. We need to pass paid leave, universal pre-k and childcare. And finally, we need continue to subsidize American manufacturing

[oldtimer]

How do we have any indication of what 2026 fundamentals will be?  I agree that they'll likely favor whichever party loses the presidential election, but I'd imagine we're way too polarized for either party to win a popular vote by fifteen points.

2018 was D +8.6, and the economy is likely to be much worse than 2018. Republicans have lost a lot of high propensity voters since then as well (trading them for low propensity voters).

I can see Democrats been favoured in the House until 2032 (when the 2030 cencus kicks in) and the Senate until 2036 (Tester is not up in another Presidential year until 2036 and the GOP needs his seat to offset future loses).

But if Trump wins by 5 I don't think Democrats would do any better than 2018 in the House, but will take the Senate, since the GOP is currently unlikely to do well in senate races this year.

[politicallefty]

I can see Democrats been favoured in the House until 2032 (when the 2030 cencus kicks in) and the Senate until 2036 (Tester is not up in another Presidential year until 2036 and the GOP needs his seat to offset future loses).

But if Trump wins by 5 I don't think Democrats would do any better than 2018 in the House, but will take the Senate, since the GOP is currently unlikely to do well in senate races this year.

If Democrats get a trifecta at any time during those years, they have a serious opportunity to make some significant changes. With Manchin and Sinema gone, they will either eliminate or suspend the filibuster to pass the Freedom to Vote Act (establishing redistricting standards for the entire country) and admit DC as a state (possibly Puerto Rico as well).

[oldtimer]

I can see Democrats been favoured in the House until 2032 (when the 2030 cencus kicks in) and the Senate until 2036 (Tester is not up in another Presidential year until 2036 and the GOP needs his seat to offset future loses).

But if Trump wins by 5 I don't think Democrats would do any better than 2018 in the House, but will take the Senate, since the GOP is currently unlikely to do well in senate races this year.

If Democrats get a trifecta at any time during those years, they have a serious opportunity to make some significant changes. With Manchin and Sinema gone, they will either eliminate or suspend the filibuster to pass the Freedom to Vote Act (establishing redistricting standards for the entire country) and admit DC as a state (possibly Puerto Rico as well).

Things will start to work against Democrats for the Presidency as we approach the end of the decade, due to generational change, the declining population share of college graduates, and the Electoral College gap, heck they already are in trouble since 2016.

It's a reversal of the previous familiar pattern of R's doing well in Midterms but doing badly in Presidential years, that was the standard in 1992-2018.

[Roll Roons]

The upper bound of a flippable seat is probably something that the current president won by mid to high teens.

[Gracile]

Highly, highly improbable in our current political era. The most recent example of a Democrat winning a House seat that Republican in a midterm environment was Collin Peterson in 2018, and he was a long-serving incumbent from before his district trended significantly Republican with views that did not align with the national party (and we all know what happened to him two years later).

[Tekken_Guy]

The upper bound of a flippable seat is probably something that the current president won by mid to high teens.

Yeah the reddest seat I could possibly see flipping is CO-04, and only if Boebert is still around.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

If they already had the incumbency (ie initially winning in special election) I would say it's possible. Collin Peterson did survive 2018 after all. However, barring an abysmal R candidate that makes Majewski look like an electoral titan, it's not happening in an open seat.