Which outcome is more likely in occur North Carolina for 2024?

[TDAS04]

?

[Utah Neolib]

Glad to hear that North Carolina repealed term limits only for Roy Cooper.

[TDAS04]

Glad to hear that North Carolina repealed term limits only for Roy Cooper.

Fixed.

[Spectator]

Note that I think Trump/Stein is by far the likeliest outcome in November, but given the options, I chose Trump/Robinson.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Presidential Race is Lean R and Governorship is a tossup so the former.

[President Johnson]

Note that I think Trump/Stein is by far the likeliest outcome in November, but given the options, I chose Trump/Robinson.

Agreed.

[Progressive Pessimist]

One, by far.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Option 2. Robinson winning is hard to see, while Biden winning NC is quite unlikely but still likelier.

[SnowLabrador]

Option 2. Robinson winning is hard to see, while Biden winning NC is quite unlikely but still likelier.

Why? He's leading in most polls, and Trump is likely to win North Carolina. How many Trump-Stein voters are there going to be?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Option 2. Robinson winning is hard to see, while Biden winning NC is quite unlikely but still likelier.

Why? He's leading in most polls, and Trump is likely to win North Carolina. How many Trump-Stein voters are there going to be?

Robinson is nuts. There should definitely be some people voting for most other Rs and pulling for Stein.

[SnowLabrador]

Option 2. Robinson winning is hard to see, while Biden winning NC is quite unlikely but still likelier.

Why? He's leading in most polls, and Trump is likely to win North Carolina. How many Trump-Stein voters are there going to be?

Robinson is nuts. There should definitely be some people voting for most other Rs and pulling for Stein.

The question is how many. I don't think it's as many as you think.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Option 2. Robinson winning is hard to see, while Biden winning NC is quite unlikely but still likelier.

Why? He's leading in most polls, and Trump is likely to win North Carolina. How many Trump-Stein voters are there going to be?

Robinson is nuts. There should definitely be some people voting for most other Rs and pulling for Stein.

The question is how many. I don't think it's as many as you think.

We'll see in November.

[Spectator]

Option 2. Robinson winning is hard to see, while Biden winning NC is quite unlikely but still likelier.

Why? He's leading in most polls, and Trump is likely to win North Carolina. How many Trump-Stein voters are there going to be?

Robinson is nuts. There should definitely be some people voting for most other Rs and pulling for Stein.

The question is how many. I don't think it's as many as you think.

The prophet has spoken. Congrats Josh Stein.

[Bush did 311]

Option 2. Robinson winning is hard to see, while Biden winning NC is quite unlikely but still likelier.

Why? He's leading in most polls, and Trump is likely to win North Carolina. How many Trump-Stein voters are there going to be?

If past gubernatorial contests in the state are any indication, Stein can expect to outperform Biden by 100-200,000 votes. Fiscal conservatives in the business community will vote for dems in state level races to protect their economic investment in the state. If things get too "jesuscampy" around here it'll cost them. However, they will never vote to give dems federal power in the Senate or Presidency. So those can only be won in wave years with huge youth turnout.

NC was the only governor pickup for democrats in 2016, despite Trump winning this state by 3.6 points.

[Dan the Roman]

Option 2. Robinson winning is hard to see, while Biden winning NC is quite unlikely but still likelier.

Why? He's leading in most polls, and Trump is likely to win North Carolina. How many Trump-Stein voters are there going to be?

If past gubernatorial contests in the state are any indication, Stein can expect to outperform Biden by 100-200,000 votes. Fiscal conservatives in the business community will vote for dems in state level races to protect their economic investment in the state. If things get too "jesuscampy" around here it'll cost them. However, they will never vote to give dems federal power in the Senate or Presidency. So those can only be won in wave years with huge youth turnout.

NC was the only governor pickup for democrats in 2016, despite Trump winning this state by 3.6 points.

Democrats have only won Federal races in 1998(Senate) and 2008(senate/president). Otherwise, it has been a quarter of a century.

[Tekken_Guy]

Option 2. Robinson winning is hard to see, while Biden winning NC is quite unlikely but still likelier.

Why? He's leading in most polls, and Trump is likely to win North Carolina. How many Trump-Stein voters are there going to be?

If past gubernatorial contests in the state are any indication, Stein can expect to outperform Biden by 100-200,000 votes. Fiscal conservatives in the business community will vote for dems in state level races to protect their economic investment in the state. If things get too "jesuscampy" around here it'll cost them. However, they will never vote to give dems federal power in the Senate or Presidency. So those can only be won in wave years with huge youth turnout.

NC was the only governor pickup for democrats in 2016, despite Trump winning this state by 3.6 points.

Democrats have only won Federal races in 1998(Senate) and 2008(senate/president). Otherwise, it has been a quarter of a century.

In 2020, Georgia Democrats have not won a federal races in 20 years, and then that changed. I think Biden’s biggest obstacle to winning NC is the national environment rather than the lean of the state.