NY: Biden +12, +10 (Siena College)

[NYDem]

Does anyone know what Siena considers “Upstate” and “suburbs” for crosstabs? I’m assuming Upstate is everything north of Westchester given those categories.

[Tekken_Guy]

Does anyone know what Siena considers “Upstate” and “suburbs” for crosstabs? I’m assuming Upstate is everything north of Westchester given those categories.

Suburbs I believe are Suffolk, Nassau, Westchester, and Rockland. Upstate is everything north of the latter two counties. NYC is…well, NYC.

[jaichind]

yikes, not good for Biden if accurate. interested to see what Jersey looks like

This is good for Biden.  If true this poll shows Trump's PV swing against Biden might be concentrated in non-swing states.

This 10-15% swing in NY would be a 0.25% swing (if that) in the popular vote. Even if Trump wins NY, the effect would be about 0.5% at most in the popular vote  . NY alone won’t affect the popular vote much

If you’re trying to extrapolate how all the deep blue states will vote based on how NY is polling - the issue is that NY is facing issues that many other deep blue states are not. So NY may trend right more than a state like Oregon, Rhode Island, or California might

That is fair.  Still, I do think some of the NY are also related to fundamentals concerning non-college Blacks and non-college Hispanics so Trump will gain a bunch of wasted gains in Deep Blue states.

[Eraserhead]

lol @ the Kennedy/West/Other numbers. Most of those people are probably going for Biden in the end, still a bad poll for him though.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

lol @ the Kennedy/West/Other numbers. Most of those people are probably going for Biden in the end, still a bad poll for him though.

Lol Hochul won by 5 and it was a 303map

[wbrocks67]

Trump at 32/36 is not being discussed enough.

This is it. Blue avatars don't want to believe it, but it's been a consistent through much of the polling. Trump usually has a ceiling or stays in a certain range, and that # is usually close to his 2020 result. Trump has consolidated his voters, Biden has not. It's been very clear through a lot of the polling.