NY: Biden +12, +10 (Siena College)

[Redban]

I think this is different from the NYTimes/Siena polling collab

https://scri.siena.edu/2024/02/20/hochul-favorability-voters-say-hochul-is-honest-hard-working-but-plurality-says-shes-out-of-touch-with-average-new-yorkers/

Biden 48
Trump 36
Other 10

Biden 42
Trump 32
Kennedy 13
West 6
Other 7

[mjba257]

yikes, not good for Biden if accurate. interested to see what Jersey looks like

[jaichind]

yikes, not good for Biden if accurate. interested to see what Jersey looks like

This is good for Biden.  If true this poll shows Trump's PV swing against Biden might be concentrated in non-swing states.

[Redban]

yikes, not good for Biden if accurate. interested to see what Jersey looks like

This is good for Biden.  If true this poll shows Trump's PV swing against Biden might be concentrated in non-swing states.

This 10-15% swing in NY would be a 0.25% swing (if that) in the popular vote. Even if Trump wins NY, the effect would be about 0.5% at most in the popular vote  . NY alone won’t affect the popular vote much

If you’re trying to extrapolate how all the deep blue states will vote based on how NY is polling - the issue is that NY is facing issues that many other deep blue states are not. So NY may trend right more than a state like Oregon, Rhode Island, or California might

[Arizona Iced Tea]

yikes, not good for Biden if accurate. interested to see what Jersey looks like

This is good for Biden.  If true this poll shows Trump's PV swing against Biden might be concentrated in non-swing states.

This 10-15% swing in NY would be a 0.25% swing (if that) in the popular vote. Even if Trump wins NY, the effect would be about 0.5% at most in the popular vote  . NY alone won’t affect the popular vote much

If you’re trying to extrapolate how all the deep blue states will vote based on how NY is polling - the issue is that NY is facing issues that many other deep blue states are not. So NY may trend right more than a state like Oregon, Rhode Island, or California might

It's virtually impossible for Trump to lose the EC advantage unless Texas is double digits.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

yikes, not good for Biden if accurate. interested to see what Jersey looks like

This is good for Biden.  If true this poll shows Trump's PV swing against Biden might be concentrated in non-swing states.

This 10-15% swing in NY would be a 0.25% swing (if that) in the popular vote. Even if Trump wins NY, the effect would be about 0.5% at most in the popular vote  . NY alone won’t affect the popular vote much

If you’re trying to extrapolate how all the deep blue states will vote based on how NY is polling - the issue is that NY is facing issues that many other deep blue states are not. So NY may trend right more than a state like Oregon, Rhode Island, or California might

It's virtually impossible for Trump to lose the EC advantage unless Texas is double digits.

IT'S CALLED VOTING NOT Polls HOW MANY TIMES DO DS AND PBOWER HAVE TO TELL YOU THIS AND ITS STILL 200 DAYS AWAY

You guys Rs have lost every single special except MS and LA that's not winning

[GAinDC]

The same users clutching their pearls over this poll are the same people who were nowhere to be found during last week's race in NY 03... just sayin'

[Skill and Chance]

yikes, not good for Biden if accurate. interested to see what Jersey looks like

This is good for Biden.  If true this poll shows Trump's PV swing against Biden might be concentrated in non-swing states.

This 10-15% swing in NY would be a 0.25% swing (if that) in the popular vote. Even if Trump wins NY, the effect would be about 0.5% at most in the popular vote  . NY alone won’t affect the popular vote much

If you’re trying to extrapolate how all the deep blue states will vote based on how NY is polling - the issue is that NY is facing issues that many other deep blue states are not. So NY may trend right more than a state like Oregon, Rhode Island, or California might

However, we have now also seen some Biden +15 CA polls.  Holding everything else constant, how much would Biden +15 in CA swing the PV?

[Birdish]

yikes, not good for Biden if accurate. interested to see what Jersey looks like

This is good for Biden.  If true this poll shows Trump's PV swing against Biden might be concentrated in non-swing states.

This 10-15% swing in NY would be a 0.25% swing (if that) in the popular vote. Even if Trump wins NY, the effect would be about 0.5% at most in the popular vote  . NY alone won’t affect the popular vote much

If you’re trying to extrapolate how all the deep blue states will vote based on how NY is polling - the issue is that NY is facing issues that many other deep blue states are not. So NY may trend right more than a state like Oregon, Rhode Island, or California might

However, we have now also seen some Biden +15 CA polls.  Holding everything else constant, how much would Biden +15 in CA swing the PV?

Plus a Trump +6 to +8 win in Florida.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The same users clutching their pearls over this poll are the same people who were nowhere to be found during last week's race in NY 03... just sayin'

The polls haven't changed methodology the voters showed last week whom is gonna win in Nov


Also it's 200 days as long as polls show Trump leading Rs are gonna boast are we really taking Rassy seriously Trump +6

[Birdish]

The same users clutching their pearls over this poll are the same people who were nowhere to be found during last week's race in NY 03... just sayin'

Yep, and Siena did underestimate Suozii and, by extension, Biden in their poll of the race. Could be a sign they're doing it statewide.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

The same users clutching their pearls over this poll are the same people who were nowhere to be found during last week's race in NY 03... just sayin'

Yep, and Siena did underestimate Suozii and, by extension, Biden in their poll of the race. Could be a sign they're doing it statewide.

Also this is another increase from their last poll

[Skill and Chance]

yikes, not good for Biden if accurate. interested to see what Jersey looks like

This is good for Biden.  If true this poll shows Trump's PV swing against Biden might be concentrated in non-swing states.

This 10-15% swing in NY would be a 0.25% swing (if that) in the popular vote. Even if Trump wins NY, the effect would be about 0.5% at most in the popular vote  . NY alone won’t affect the popular vote much

If you’re trying to extrapolate how all the deep blue states will vote based on how NY is polling - the issue is that NY is facing issues that many other deep blue states are not. So NY may trend right more than a state like Oregon, Rhode Island, or California might

However, we have now also seen some Biden +15 CA polls.  Holding everything else constant, how much would Biden +15 in CA swing the PV?

Plus a Trump +6 to +8 win in Florida.

And Trump +8-12 in Texas.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ds do need to be taught a lesson in Biden losing we have the 303 map thru Nov 28 but this is too important

I think the S except for VA is gonna vote R and the N is gonna vote D

Trump isn't up in MI, PA and WI but he is ahead in all the S states and NC is gonna vote R

We are pollsters too Rs forget that

[GAinDC]

The same users clutching their pearls over this poll are the same people who were nowhere to be found during last week's race in NY 03... just sayin'

Yep, and Siena did underestimate Suozii and, by extension, Biden in their poll of the race. Could be a sign they're doing it statewide.

Siena's NY polls have just been weird this cycle.

And I'm not even saying they're wrong, but we had a literal special election last week that told us a lot more about the voters in New York State. Yet some people want to point to these weird polls as evidence that Biden is collapsing there while ignoring that race.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The same users clutching their pearls over this poll are the same people who were nowhere to be found during last week's race in NY 03... just sayin'

Yep, and Siena did underestimate Suozii and, by extension, Biden in their poll of the race. Could be a sign they're doing it statewide.

Siena's NY polls have just been weird this cycle.

And I'm not even saying they're wrong, but we had a literal special election last week that told us a lot more about the voters in New York State. Yet some people want to point to these weird polls as evidence that Biden is collapsing there while ignoring that race.

As soon as Rassy +6 came out and it's the same as what McLaughlin told us, they jumped on Trump bandwagon, as I said it's 2 wars going on, Hunter and COVID it's a tough race


Our Congressional delegation resurrect the blue wall as I said GA, NC are red states and Biden will get 279 plus AZ

This bogus polls are trash

[President Johnson]

I honestly don't know what to make of these New York polls. On the one hand, the special election(s) seem to beg differ and I also don't see where Trump would make so much gains that we're talking about a margin that's just barely into double digits. On the other hand, Siena is usually a good pollster and just dismissing the entire survey as junk makes you look like a partisan hack living in denial that Biden is endangered of losing reelection.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I honestly don't know what to make of these New York polls. On the one hand, the special election(s) seem to beg differ and I also don't see where Trump would make so much gains that we're talking about a margin that's just barely into double digits. On the other hand, Siena is usually a good pollster and just dismissing the entire survey as junk makes you look like a partisan hack living in denial that Biden is endangered of losing reelection.

Hochul won by 5 and it was a 303 map

[Spectator]

yikes, not good for Biden if accurate. interested to see what Jersey looks like

This is good for Biden.  If true this poll shows Trump's PV swing against Biden might be concentrated in non-swing states.

This 10-15% swing in NY would be a 0.25% swing (if that) in the popular vote. Even if Trump wins NY, the effect would be about 0.5% at most in the popular vote  . NY alone won’t affect the popular vote much

If you’re trying to extrapolate how all the deep blue states will vote based on how NY is polling - the issue is that NY is facing issues that many other deep blue states are not. So NY may trend right more than a state like Oregon, Rhode Island, or California might

It's virtually impossible for Trump to lose the EC advantage unless Texas is double digits.

No it's not. The 2022 elections were basically a Dem Electoral College advantage if you extrapolate.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

yikes, not good for Biden if accurate. interested to see what Jersey looks like

This is good for Biden.  If true this poll shows Trump's PV swing against Biden might be concentrated in non-swing states.

This 10-15% swing in NY would be a 0.25% swing (if that) in the popular vote. Even if Trump wins NY, the effect would be about 0.5% at most in the popular vote  . NY alone won’t affect the popular vote much

If you’re trying to extrapolate how all the deep blue states will vote based on how NY is polling - the issue is that NY is facing issues that many other deep blue states are not. So NY may trend right more than a state like Oregon, Rhode Island, or California might

It's virtually impossible for Trump to lose the EC advantage unless Texas is double digits.

No it's not. The 2022 elections were basically a Dem Electoral College advantage if you extrapolate.

Well, the generic ballot in Texas was double digits R even if you account for the uncontested seats.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Trump at 32/36 is not being discussed enough.

[DrScholl]

Trump's percentage is really all that needs to be looked at in polling because consistently Republicans have matched their percentage in polling but Democrats have often exceeded their percentage. The results in NY-3 suggests that New York won't be close.

[President Johnson]

Trump at 32/36 is not being discussed enough.

Yeah, that's also important. Somewhat lines up with other safe state polls. We had Biden around that number in Tennessee recently as well and Trump at 48%. In the end, he'll crack 60% easily there. Meanwhile, as I said before, I think Schumer's 56% of the vote is Biden's floor or median outcome. Trump meanwhile may or may not get to 40%, depending on the share of third party votes.

[Spectator]

yikes, not good for Biden if accurate. interested to see what Jersey looks like

This is good for Biden.  If true this poll shows Trump's PV swing against Biden might be concentrated in non-swing states.

This 10-15% swing in NY would be a 0.25% swing (if that) in the popular vote. Even if Trump wins NY, the effect would be about 0.5% at most in the popular vote  . NY alone won’t affect the popular vote much

If you’re trying to extrapolate how all the deep blue states will vote based on how NY is polling - the issue is that NY is facing issues that many other deep blue states are not. So NY may trend right more than a state like Oregon, Rhode Island, or California might

It's virtually impossible for Trump to lose the EC advantage unless Texas is double digits.

No it's not. The 2022 elections were basically a Dem Electoral College advantage if you extrapolate.

Well, the generic ballot in Texas was double digits R even if you account for the uncontested seats.

Texas was R+11. Texas voting Trump +5 while holding the rest of 202 roughly constant is still a massive D Electoral College advantage. NY, CA, and FL did that much heavy lifting on their own.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

yikes, not good for Biden if accurate. interested to see what Jersey looks like

This is good for Biden.  If true this poll shows Trump's PV swing against Biden might be concentrated in non-swing states.

This 10-15% swing in NY would be a 0.25% swing (if that) in the popular vote. Even if Trump wins NY, the effect would be about 0.5% at most in the popular vote  . NY alone won’t affect the popular vote much

If you’re trying to extrapolate how all the deep blue states will vote based on how NY is polling - the issue is that NY is facing issues that many other deep blue states are not. So NY may trend right more than a state like Oregon, Rhode Island, or California might

NY isn't trending right Hochul won by 5