Emerson: PA Trump +2

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1759902362678722975

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There are so many Pa polls that show Biden ahead

[Spectator]

Lends support to congressional Dems doing much better than Biden.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lends support to congressional Dems doing much better than Biden.

Lol Casey isn't winning by 1p

[Illiniwek]

I refuse to believe that there are >5% people out there who would vote for RFK Jr.

[Sir Mohamed]

There will be some ticket splitting in PA, but I don't believe Biden and Casey will be this far from each other.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Last one was Trump +4

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Emerson does phone not Internet polls and their WI and NV polls were way off they can be wrong too they aren't perfect they had Laxalt and Johnson winning by 5

They will have the right number by Eday 2 is so Small

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Last one was Trump +4

Newsom also down 15

[Sir Mohamed]

Last one was Trump +4

Newsom also down 15

That makes the poll questionable in the first place, or is basically just low name ID. Any halfway credible Dem nominee would get 45% of the vote as an absolute floor.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Last one was Trump +4

Newsom also down 15

That makes the poll questionable in the first place, or is basically just low name ID. Any halfway credible Dem nominee would get 45% of the vote as an absolute floor.

Oh yeah but I just listed it to put down the notion that Biden is this uniquely weak candidate (or that polls should be trusted)

[Redban]

If we presume that all or most of the stein / west support is coming from Biden 2020 supporters or lean D voters (which is fair, given the political views) - it would suggest that RFK is taking support from both equally

Stein and west add for 3%. So  we just suppose all of them come from Biden’s 43%, then that brings him down to 40%. That means his drop from 40% to 37% would be cause of RFK Jr

Trump drops from 45% to 42%. If all of Stein and West support comes from Biden, then Trump drops 3% cause of RFK Jr; so Trump loses just as much to RFK Jr as Biden does

The point is that RFK Jr, who may or may not be on the ballot in PA, is not the one who makes Biden drop 3% compared to the head to head top line. Stein and West are costing Biden

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If we presume that all or most of the stein / west support is coming from Biden 2020 supporters or lean D voters (which is fair, given the political views) - it would suggest that RFK is taking support from both equally

Stein and west add for 3%. So  we just suppose all of them come from Biden’s 43%, then that brings him down to 40%. That means his drop from 40% to 37% would be cause of RFK Jr

Trump drops from 45% to 42%. If all of Stein and West support comes from Biden, then Trump drops 3% cause of RFK Jr; so Trump loses just as much to RFK Jr as Biden does

The point is that RFK Jr, who may or may not be on the ballot in PA, is not the one who makes Biden drop 3% compared to the head to head top line. Stein and West are costing Biden

Yet again the flaw in your analysis is these are polls not votes how many other polls has Biden been ahead in

With RFK it takes votes away from Biden it doesn't have Stein and West with only Biden and Trump

It's a 303 map but Biden is scandaled and two wars and no end in site for COVID not lockdown

[wbrocks67]

Last one was Trump +4

Looks like actually Trump +7 in January lol

[wbrocks67]

Emerson's best result for Biden in PA in months it seems. Weird that they did a R+1 GOP sample for RV though, since that's not remotely true lol.