House Rs represent more Clinton-Biden seats than Trump-Biden seats

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Under the current lines:

Clinton-Biden seats
CA-13
CA-22
CA-27
CA-40
CA-45
NJ-07
NY-17
NY-22
OR-05
PA-01

Trump-Biden seats
AZ-01
AZ-06
NE-02
NY-01
NY-19
VA-02

[Roll Roons]

CA-40 and NJ-07 were Trump-Biden seats.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

CA-40 and NJ-07 were Trump-Biden seats.

Fine but 8-8 is still closer than I would have thought. It would have still been 9-8 actually if it wasn't for Santos getting expelled. Any theories why the distribution is so even?

[ProgressiveModerate]

CA-40 and NJ-07 were Trump-Biden seats.

Fine but 8-8 is still closer than I would have thought. It would have still been 9-8 actually if it wasn't for Santos getting expelled. Any theories why the distribution is so even?

Probably because a good number of Trump-Biden seats have lurched left and are no longer seriously competitive like KS-03 and MN-02

You're also dealing with a pretty small sample. Especially after redistricting, not many Trump-Biden districts exist anyways; iirc there's only 14.

[Devils30]

NJ-7 was Trump +6 in 2016, the old NJ-7 was Clinton +1.

CA-40 was Trump +4 in 2016.

[Spectator]

I think a lot of it is attributable to Dems doing so piss poor in California and NY tbh. Of course there's some genuinely strong Republican anomalies like Mike Garcia and David Valadao, but most the rest were driftwood that rode the wave last year.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I think a lot of it is attributable to Dems doing so piss poor in California and NY tbh. Of course there's some genuinely strong Republican anomalies like Mike Garcia and David Valadao, but most the rest were driftwood that rode the wave last year.

And the oddball stalwarts such as Fitz in PA-01. 

[Vosem]

Mostly explainable by how few Trump '16/Biden '20 seats there are at all.

Trump '16/Biden '20 seats (under 2022 lines):
AZ-1: David Schweikert (R )
AZ-6: Juan Ciscomani (R )
CA-40: Young Kim (R )
CO-8: Yadira Caraveo (D)
KS-3: Sharice Davids (D)
MI-7: Elissa Slotkin (D)
NE-2: Don Bacon (R )
NH-1: Chris Pappas (D)
NJ-7: Tom Kean, Jr. (R )
NY-1: Nick LaLota (R )
NY-19: Marc Molinaro (R )
NC-13: Wiley Nickel (D)
PA-7: Susan Wild (D)
VA-2: Jennifer Kiggans (R )

Clinton '16/Trump '20 seats (under 2022 lines):
FL-26: Mario Diaz-Balart (R )
FL-27: Maria Salazar (R )
FL-28: Carlos Gimenez (R )
TX-15: Monica de la Cruz (R )

I think it's also that the Republican victory in 2022 was concentrated in just a few states, like California, New York, and Oregon, and many of the most obvious targets were left on the table. (Notably, of the four notionally-R-in-2020-but-D-in-2022 seats -- which are AK-AL, NC-13, PA-7, and WA-3 -- two are also Trump '16/Biden '20 seats. Also, all of these are seats where Republican candidates in 2022 were just really bad. There are only four such seats -- CO-8, KS-3, MI-7, and NH-1 -- where the thesis that "this place is just trending Democratic really hard" seems to apply.)

Here are the specific swings for Trump '16/Biden '20 seats:
USA: Clinton 48.0/45.9 (D+2.1) --> Biden 51.3/46.8 (D+4.5) (swing 2.4 points D)
AZ-1: Trump 48.8/44.6 (R+4.2) --> Biden 50.1/48.6 (D+1.5) (swing 5.7 points D; trend 3.3 points D)
AZ-6: Trump 49.0/43.8 (R+5.2) --> Biden 49.3/49.2 (D+0.1) (swing 5.3 points D; trend 2.9 points D)
CA-40: Trump 49.3/45.0 (R+4.3) --> Biden 49.9/48.1 (D+1.8 ) (swing 6.1 points D; trend 3.7 points D)
CO-8: Trump 46.4/44.6 (R+1.8 ) --> Biden 50.8/46.3 (D+4.5) (swing 6.3 points D; trend 3.9 points D)
KS-3: Trump 48.2/42.9 (R+5.3) --> Biden 51.2/46.7 (D+4.5) (swing 9.8 points D; trend 7.4 points D)
MI-7: Trump 48.9/45.1 (R+3.8 ) --> Biden 49.6/48.7 (D+0.9) (swing 4.7 points D; trend 2.3 points D)
NE-2: Trump 48.1/46.2 (R+1.9) --> Biden 52.2/45.8 (D+6.4) (swing 8.3 points D; trend 5.9 points D)
NH-1: Trump 47.5/45.9 (R+1.6) --> Biden 52.2/46.2 (D+6.0) (swing 7.6 points D; trend 5.2 points D)
NJ-7: Trump 50.8/45.2 (R+5.6) --> Biden 51.1/47.3 (D+3.8 ) (swing 9.4 points D; trend 7.0 points D)
NY-1: Trump 51.9/44.0 (R+7.9) --> Biden 49.4/49.2 (D+0.2) (swing 8.1 points D; trend 5.7 points D)
NY-19: Trump 47.5/45.8 (R+1.7) --> Biden 51.2/46.6 (D+4.6) (swing 6.3 points D; trend 3.9 points D)
NC-13: Trump 49.0/46.7 (R+2.3) --> Biden 50.0/48.3 (D+1.7) (swing 4.0 points D; trend 1.6 points D)
PA-7: Trump 49.5/46.7 (R+2.8 ) --> Biden 49.7/49.1 (D+0.6) (swing 3.4 points D; trend 1.0 points D)
VA-2: Trump 49.8/44.3 (R+5.5) --> Biden 49.9/48.1 (D+1.8 ) (swing 7.3 points D; trend 4.9 points D)

Interestingly, it's true that every Trump '16/Biden '20 seat trended Democratic, which I was not so confident of (PA-7 came closest to trending Republican, since it only trended Democratic by 1 point, but ultimately didn't). On average, these seats swung 6.6 points Democratic, and so trended 4.2 points Democratic -- kind of substantial relative to the country.

For fun, here are the Clinton '16/Trump '20 seats:
USA: Clinton 48.0/45.9 (D+2.1) --> Biden 51.3/46.8 (D+4.5) (swing 2.4 points D)
FL-26: Clinton 50.7/46.4 (D+4.3) --> Trump 58.8/40.5 (R+18.3) (swing 22.6 points R; trend 25.0 points R)
FL-27: Clinton 56.9/39.7 (D+17.2) --> Trump 49.8/49.5 (R+0.3) (swing 17.5 points R; trend 19.9 points R)
FL-28: Clinton 56.0/40.5 (D+15.5) --> Trump 52.8/46.5 (R+6.3) (swing 21.8 points R; trend 24.2 points R)
TX-15: Clinton 54.7/41.5 (D+13.2) --> Trump 50.9/48.1 (R+2.8 ) (swing 16.0 points R; trend 18.4 points R)

An incredibly different picture! On average, these seats swung 19.5 points towards the Republicans, and so trended 21.9 points towards the GOP.