Why is Katie Porter throwing away a house seat?

[Cyrusman]

Even if she advances to the general, I'd say she's a big underdog against Schiff. He has stronger name recognition, roots to CA, bigger donor base, more endorsements, and I could see him doing way better with GOP voters literally just cause he's a white man. Why give away a seat that is probably safe with her, but probably lean D with another Democrat, especially if the GOP nominates a strong candidate like Scott Baugh.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Even if she advances to the general, I'd say she's a big underdog against Schiff. He has stronger name recognition, roots to CA, bigger donor base, more endorsements, and I could see him doing way better with GOP voters literally just cause he's a white man. Why give away a seat that is probably safe with her, but probably lean D with another Democrat, especially if the GOP nominates a strong candidate like Scott Baugh.

Nah, if she advances to the general, she’s the clear favorite

[Tekken_Guy]

Even if she advances to the general, I'd say she's a big underdog against Schiff. He has stronger name recognition, roots to CA, bigger donor base, more endorsements, and I could see him doing way better with GOP voters literally just cause he's a white man. Why give away a seat that is probably safe with her, but probably lean D with another Democrat, especially if the GOP nominates a strong candidate like Scott Baugh.

Nah, if she advances to the general, she’s the clear favorite

No she’s not.

Even if she advances to the general, I'd say she's a big underdog against Schiff. He has stronger name recognition, roots to CA, bigger donor base, more endorsements, and I could see him doing way better with GOP voters literally just cause he's a white man. Why give away a seat that is probably safe with her, but probably lean D with another Democrat, especially if the GOP nominates a strong candidate like Scott Baugh.

Baugh is a weak candidate who vastly underperformed Dahle in his seat.

[Cyrusman]

Even if she advances to the general, I'd say she's a big underdog against Schiff. He has stronger name recognition, roots to CA, bigger donor base, more endorsements, and I could see him doing way better with GOP voters literally just cause he's a white man. Why give away a seat that is probably safe with her, but probably lean D with another Democrat, especially if the GOP nominates a strong candidate like Scott Baugh.

Nah, if she advances to the general, she’s the clear favorite

No she’s not.

Even if she advances to the general, I'd say she's a big underdog against Schiff. He has stronger name recognition, roots to CA, bigger donor base, more endorsements, and I could see him doing way better with GOP voters literally just cause he's a white man. Why give away a seat that is probably safe with her, but probably lean D with another Democrat, especially if the GOP nominates a strong candidate like Scott Baugh.

Baugh is a weak candidate who vastly underperformed Dahle in his seat.

Even so, Porter would throw her seat away to another Dem. Why?

[DrScholl]

Because Senate seats don't open up often and this is her best chance at advancing if she wants to be a Senator

[Vern]

I just hope CA does us all a solid and elected her.

[GoTfan]

I personally doubt Schiff would even be running if he didn't spearhead the Trump impeachment.

Is there a chance she runs for governor in 2026 if she loses this one?

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Because Senate seats don't open up often and this is her best chance at advancing if she wants to be a Senator

Hey she could always dig up dirt on Padilla and if that doesn’t work plant some

[Landslide Lyndon]

Even if she advances to the general, I'd say she's a big underdog against Schiff. He has stronger name recognition, roots to CA, bigger donor base, more endorsements, and I could see him doing way better with GOP voters literally just cause he's a white man. Why give away a seat that is probably safe with her, but probably lean D with another Democrat, especially if the GOP nominates a strong candidate like Scott Baugh.

Nah, if she advances to the general, she’s the clear favorite

No she’s not.

What are you talking about? It's California, Democrats could nominate a random man from the street and he'd win in a landslide.

[Tekken_Guy]

Even if she advances to the general, I'd say she's a big underdog against Schiff. He has stronger name recognition, roots to CA, bigger donor base, more endorsements, and I could see him doing way better with GOP voters literally just cause he's a white man. Why give away a seat that is probably safe with her, but probably lean D with another Democrat, especially if the GOP nominates a strong candidate like Scott Baugh.

Nah, if she advances to the general, she’s the clear favorite

No she’s not.

What are you talking about? It's California, Democrats could nominate a random man from the street and he'd win in a landslide.

I meant against Schiff.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Even if she advances to the general, I'd say she's a big underdog against Schiff. He has stronger name recognition, roots to CA, bigger donor base, more endorsements, and I could see him doing way better with GOP voters literally just cause he's a white man. Why give away a seat that is probably safe with her, but probably lean D with another Democrat, especially if the GOP nominates a strong candidate like Scott Baugh.

Nah, if she advances to the general, she’s the clear favorite

No she’s not.

What are you talking about? It's California, Democrats could nominate a random man from the street and he'd win in a landslide.

I meant against Schiff.

Republicans will back her over Schiff

[wnwnwn]

I looked a bit the senate campaing pages of both and it seems that Schiff is on the left of Porter on college education, while she is on the left of him on healthcare.

Considering Schiff strong anti-trumpism and the current republican base in California, 'republicans for Porter' doesn't seem the strangest idea.

[Sir Mohamed]

She thought that she has a real chance to win, and early polls suggested this was true. I mean, she could still it off, although I increasingly doubt so. The November election might even be Schiff vs. a GOPer.

[kwabbit]

Even if she advances to the general, I'd say she's a big underdog against Schiff. He has stronger name recognition, roots to CA, bigger donor base, more endorsements, and I could see him doing way better with GOP voters literally just cause he's a white man. Why give away a seat that is probably safe with her, but probably lean D with another Democrat, especially if the GOP nominates a strong candidate like Scott Baugh.

Nah, if she advances to the general, she’s the clear favorite

No she’s not.

Even if she advances to the general, I'd say she's a big underdog against Schiff. He has stronger name recognition, roots to CA, bigger donor base, more endorsements, and I could see him doing way better with GOP voters literally just cause he's a white man. Why give away a seat that is probably safe with her, but probably lean D with another Democrat, especially if the GOP nominates a strong candidate like Scott Baugh.

Baugh is a weak candidate who vastly underperformed Dahle in his seat.

I think it was only a few points since Dahle only narrowly won the district. Baugh is a mediocre candidate, but you can't expect Baugh to match the Gov race. Only Young Kim and Michelle Steele did that, there were just different dynamics at play vs. House races.

[kwabbit]

You can't launch a national campaign from a House seat. She's clearly very ambitious and this was her best shot at becoming a Senator and getting the position she needs for a future Presidential run.

If Baugh manages to win because of Min's DUI then she has an easy path back to the House too. She could also run for Governor, but her Whiteboard shtick really only works for a legislative body.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Lee dropped out it's too late but her support would go to Porter but March 5 th is close, I don't know whom this 22 for Garvey is

Porter and Lee are done

[Gracile]

She also now qualifies for a congressional pension, which makes it an opportune time to jump ship even if she loses (see also Colin Allred, Andy Kim, and even Dean Phillips).

[Cyrusman]

I looked a bit the senate campaing pages of both and it seems that Schiff is on the left of Porter on college education, while she is on the left of him on healthcare.

Considering Schiff strong anti-trumpism and the current republican base in California, 'republicans for Porter' doesn't seem the strangest idea.

I doubt it. Porter is known to fight for "progressives rights" is loved by young people, and is a women. All three hurt her with the GOP. Don't discount how big of a impact Schiff being a white strait male is.

Kevin De Leon was to the left of Dianne Feinstein in 2018 and did better with GOP voters.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

She also now qualifies for a congressional pension, which makes it an opportune time to jump ship even if she loses (see also Colin Allred, Andy Kim, and even Dean Phillips).

Dean Phillips is already quite rich and doesn't need it, but true for the rest. Plus she probably can get some lobbyist gig if she loses that pays at least 5x the congressional salary so not a huge loss.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Because Senate seats don't open up often and this is her best chance at advancing if she wants to be a Senator

Who are you supporting, out of curiosity?

[Tekken_Guy]

She also now qualifies for a congressional pension, which makes it an opportune time to jump ship even if she loses (see also Colin Allred, Andy Kim, and even Dean Phillips).

A lot of third-term congressmen are on the outs this year. Elissa Slotkin, David Trone, Abigail Spanberger, Mark Green, Dan Bishop, Debbie Lesko, and John Curtis

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Also:

Even if she advances to the general, I'd say she's a big underdog against Schiff. He has stronger name recognition, roots to CA, bigger donor base, more endorsements, and I could see him doing way better with GOP voters literally just cause he's a white man. Why give away a seat that is probably safe with her, but probably lean D with another Democrat, especially if the GOP nominates a strong candidate like Scott Baugh.

This is not a thing. That's like saying that Democrats would be more likely to vote for the Republican in NY-03 because she's a black woman or that Republicans would be drawn to her opponent who was a white man...and clearly neither happened.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's over 3/5 anyways for Lee and Potter lol aLee 9 percent would go to Porter

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Her candidacy seemed totally viable when she announced it.
Honestly her main problem might just be how delusional the small but potentially pivotal cadre of Barbara Lee supporters are.

[Vosem]

Even if she advances to the general, I'd say she's a big underdog against Schiff. He has stronger name recognition, roots to CA, bigger donor base, more endorsements, and I could see him doing way better with GOP voters literally just cause he's a white man. Why give away a seat that is probably safe with her, but probably lean D with another Democrat, especially if the GOP nominates a strong candidate like Scott Baugh.

Nah, if she advances to the general, she’s the clear favorite

No she’s not.

Even if she advances to the general, I'd say she's a big underdog against Schiff. He has stronger name recognition, roots to CA, bigger donor base, more endorsements, and I could see him doing way better with GOP voters literally just cause he's a white man. Why give away a seat that is probably safe with her, but probably lean D with another Democrat, especially if the GOP nominates a strong candidate like Scott Baugh.

Baugh is a weak candidate who vastly underperformed Dahle in his seat.

Baugh was outspent by Porter by a lot, and the seat was considered a giant reach in 2022. This time around the GOP is united around him, there's a vicious contest for the Democratic nomination, and the seat is more of a Republican target. I don't think there's a House seat getting thrown away here or anything, but it would obviously have been more convenient for Democrats if Porter ran for reelection.

Hopefully this progresses to a Schiff vs. Garvey general like the polls have been showing and we can be rid of her.