2026 midterms if Trump wins?

[Tekken_Guy]

What will the 2026 midterms look like if Trump wins?

[Progressive Pessimist]

A blue tsunami that will make 2018 look like 2002.

Assuming we even have fair elections, still.

[Spectator]

A blue tsunami that will make 2018 look like 2002.

Assuming we even have fair elections, still.

2022 was basically the Democrats’ 2002, only they did it with an unpopular President and inflation out of control.

In a 2026 Trump midterm, the House would be Safe D, the only question is how big the Dem majority would be. The Senate depends on how many seats Dems lost in 2024, but probably D+2-4. Governorships probably break around even or towards Dems netting a couple.

[Tekken_Guy]

A blue tsunami that will make 2018 look like 2002.

Assuming we even have fair elections, still.

If you don’t think we’ll have fair elections, you can vote options 4 or 5.

[Progressive Pessimist]

A blue tsunami that will make 2018 look like 2002.

Assuming we even have fair elections, still.

If you don’t think we’ll have fair elections, you can vote options 4 or 5.

Well, I'm not entirely sure. There are firewalls in many important swing states after 2022, but who know what Trump will try at the executive level or what the makeup of Congress will be. That's a big variable to me.

[Tekken_Guy]

A blue tsunami that will make 2018 look like 2002.

Assuming we even have fair elections, still.

If you don’t think we’ll have fair elections, you can vote options 4 or 5.

Well, I'm not entirely sure. There are firewalls in many important swing states after 2022, but who know what Trump will try at the executive level or what the makeup of Congress will be. That's a big variable to me.

What variables would lead to options 4 or 5 as opposed to 1?

[redjohn]

Senate: Ds pick up NC + ME, and win one of TX/AK/IA/MT/KS. Assuming the 2024 national race was close, Senate looked like R 53-47 after that race. Post-2026, Senate would be D 50-50 if not better.

House: D 249-186.

Governor: Ds hold WI, NY, KS, AZ, OR, PA, and ME. Ds flip NV and probably TX.

Make no mistake: Trump winning in 2024 would be a disastrous result for the country and its future, but it would be a blessing in open disguise for Congressional/state Democrats.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I think it really depends how Trump governs. We have never seen him in a position of not running for an election before, so it will be interesting how he chooses to pilot the country. His inflammatory rhetoric will be less noticeable than 2018 since he is no longer on Twitter. and won't be holding rallies for an aggressive re-election campaign.

I also think Dems will no longer try fight him at every corner since he isn't up for re-election anymore unlike his first term. Additionally, since his terms would be non-consecutive, he may very well be able to avoid the dreaded 6 year itch that plagued Bush, Obama, (and Biden if he wins). Assuming the economy and all is good, Republicans could honestly fight the midterm out to a mild loss like Dems did in 2022, but that requires fielding good candidates. If they run Kari Lake, and Doug Mastriano clones then they will get destroyed.

The biggest issue for Rs though is incumbency. If Tillis, Sullivan, and Cornyn run for re-election then they should be okay, but an open seat could very well spell trouble. For Susan Collins to win, she would have to oppose Trump as much as possible at every controversial corner.

[Spectator]

I think it really depends how Trump governs. We have never seen him in a position of not running for an election before, so it will be interesting how he chooses to pilot the country. His inflammatory rhetoric will be less noticeable than 2018 since he is no longer on Twitter. and won't be holding rallies for an aggressive re-election campaign.

I also think Dems will no longer try fight him at every corner since he isn't up for re-election anymore unlike his first term. Additionally, since his terms would be non-consecutive, he may very well be able to avoid the dreaded 6 year itch that plagued Bush, Obama, (and Biden if he wins). Assuming the economy and all is good, Republicans could honestly fight the midterm out to a mild loss like Dems did in 2022, but that requires fielding good candidates. If they run Kari Lake, and Doug Mastriano clones then they will get destroyed.

The biggest issue for Rs though is incumbency. If Tillis, Sullivan, and Cornyn run for re-election then they should be okay, but an open seat could very well spell trouble. For Susan Collins to win, she would have to oppose Trump as much as possible at every controversial corner.

Trump’s behavior has been extremely predictable ever since the 2016 election.the second paragraph is a bunch of copium.

[SnowLabrador]

They won't be free and fair, so I voted for Option 4. A vote for Donald Trump this year is a vote to end all voting.

[°Leprechaun]

I voted neutral, but it would depend on how the Congress goes this year.
For example, if the GOP were to win a trifecta this year.