Are black voters more friendly towards establishment candidates in Democratic primaries?

[President Johnson]

It certainly feels that way and not just with regard to Biden's primary campaign in 2020. Even in his gubernatorial primaries, a main source of Cuomo's strength were black voters. Do black voters indeed tend to predominantly support establishment candidates in primary elections? And if so, why is that the case? I could imagine its related to age, since the black primary electorate tends to be older. And African Americans over 40 tend to be more in strong support of the Democratic Party as whole.

[wnwnwn]

I suppose a sort of Obama loyalism exist and Coumo seem to have been popular in NYC across the board in the 2010s.
Well, the New York City Council seem to have its share of black progressives.

[Oryxslayer]

It certainly seems that way right now, but the more that you look at it, the more this assumption falls apart. The cases are not 1:1, but there are plenty of examples for both situations. The biggest one is perhaps Obama over Clinton in '08.

That election with Obama reveals the actual reason. Candidates have to actually appeal, or make attempts at, reaching out to certain parts of the party coalition. In general, when it comes to primaries, some groups are near-mutually-incompatible. Essentially, if there are several primary challengers, the effort needed to bring the two groups together for a coalition that at best only needs 50%+1 is not worth the cost. Sometimes reformist candidates path of least resistance frows through a group like African-Americans, and they actually make the appeals and focus on the issues necessary for that group. Sometimes they don't, and the opposing candidate makes those appeals. And of course, sometimes its just as simple as being part of a minority community, and the community will stick together - especially at the local level.

The one thing that discernable from this analysis though is that the Bernie coalitions do not consider African Americans part of their easiest path to 50%+1. So lower-level candidates explicitly in the mold of Bernie, who will find themselves associated with him by others, often find themselves forced to follow his coalitions path. For better or for worse.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

nowadays, yeah. Remember that it was mostly white voters who allowed Cori Bush to win her primary.

[SInNYC]

Depends on which black voters we are talking about. There is a long tradition of southern 'souls to the polls' voting, and those voters are strongly influenced by the endorsement of their pastors, which is typically establishment. Nationally, the machine politics of many cities see voters as collections of demographics to assemble, and city voters of all races have a strong tendency to vote for whichever candidate focused on their demographic.

The above is a large portion of black voters, but I'm not sure remaining ones are any more establishment than other demographics.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I would say so, and that probably has more to do with familiarity and how local politicians and machines in urban areas carry influence.

[Gracile]

This is generally the case, especially in presidential politics. However, the black vote in Democratic primaries is not as monolithic or ideologically fixed as often stereotyped. There is a recent trend of black insurgent candidates doing quite well in or getting their primary base of support from majority-black precincts in downballot races where their primary opposition is a white establishment candidate (Jamaal Bowman, Summer Lee, and Brandon Johnson are a few examples of this phenomenon).

[Reactionary Libertarian]

This is generally the case, especially in presidential politics. However, the black vote in Democratic primaries is not as monolithic or ideologically fixed as often stereotyped. There is a recent trend of black insurgent candidates doing quite well in or getting their primary base of support from majority-black precincts in downballot races where their primary opposition is a white establishment candidate (Jamaal Bowman, Summer Lee, and Brandon Johnson are a few examples of this phenomenon).

Black voters almost support the black candidate over a white candidate, regardless of ideology. So they supported far-left Brandon Johnson over centrist Paul Vallas and former Republican Eric Adams over establishment progressive Kathryn Garcia.

[Gracile]

This is generally the case, especially in presidential politics. However, the black vote in Democratic primaries is not as monolithic or ideologically fixed as often stereotyped. There is a recent trend of black insurgent candidates doing quite well in or getting their primary base of support from majority-black precincts in downballot races where their primary opposition is a white establishment candidate (Jamaal Bowman, Summer Lee, and Brandon Johnson are a few examples of this phenomenon).

Black voters almost support the black candidate over a white candidate, regardless of ideology. So they supported far-left Brandon Johnson over centrist Paul Vallas and former Republican Eric Adams over establishment progressive Kathryn Garcia.

Yeah, that was what I was trying to get at, sorry. I will also note that many such black candidates have outperformed white insurgent candidates at the national level (for example, while Cori Bush lost the large share of black precincts in St. Louis against Lacy Clay she ran ahead of Bernie Sanders' margins in the 2020 primary in such precincts).

[President Johnson]

This is generally the case, especially in presidential politics. However, the black vote in Democratic primaries is not as monolithic or ideologically fixed as often stereotyped. There is a recent trend of black insurgent candidates doing quite well in or getting their primary base of support from majority-black precincts in downballot races where their primary opposition is a white establishment candidate (Jamaal Bowman, Summer Lee, and Brandon Johnson are a few examples of this phenomenon).

Black voters almost support the black candidate over a white candidate, regardless of ideology. So they supported far-left Brandon Johnson over centrist Paul Vallas and former Republican Eric Adams over establishment progressive Kathryn Garcia.

Not sure this is always the case. Back in 2007 and into 2008, Obama was actually behind Clinton with the black vote and his team was even upset black voters didn't automatically back him. It wasn't until he win in predominantly whit Iowa that African American voters begun to shift as they were assured he could win a national election. It will be interesting to see how this impacts the Maryland senate primary this year.

And although it's just the local level, it's quite fascinating Mike Duggan has managed to easily win several mayoral elections in Detriot which is over 80% black.

[wnwnwn]

This is generally the case, especially in presidential politics. However, the black vote in Democratic primaries is not as monolithic or ideologically fixed as often stereotyped. There is a recent trend of black insurgent candidates doing quite well in or getting their primary base of support from majority-black precincts in downballot races where their primary opposition is a white establishment candidate (Jamaal Bowman, Summer Lee, and Brandon Johnson are a few examples of this phenomenon).

Black voters almost support the black candidate over a white candidate, regardless of ideology. So they supported far-left Brandon Johnson over centrist Paul Vallas and former Republican Eric Adams over establishment progressive Kathryn Garcia.

Not sure this is always the case. Back in 2007 and into 2008, Obama was actually behind Clinton with the black vote and his team was even upset black voters didn't automatically back him. It wasn't until he win in predominantly whit Iowa that African American voters begun to shift as they were assured he could win a national election. It will be interesting to see how this impacts the Maryland senate primary this year.

Maybe they saw Obama as unfavored on a GE before the Iowa primary (and they wanted a democrat to win).

[Roll Roons]

Another thing is that rural and/or older black voters are much more moderate than younger and/or urban ones.

[Reactionary Libertarian]

Another thing is that rural and/or older black voters are much more moderate than younger and/or urban ones.

Also tend to be much more Democratic. Younger blacks are much less loyal to the Democratic Party. Much greater percentage of independents. Probably much more open to left-wing insurgents who bash the Democratic Party establishment.

[mileslunn]

Not necessarily in past but true more recently.  I think more accurate statement is Black community is fairly moderate as I've found further right and further left you go, whiter supporters are.  Pew Research did a study on this and few even amongst minority who are Republican, they tend to be more moderate types.  While for Democrats, the Sanders crowd who are furthest left is the whitest group within Democrats while not just Blacks, but Latinos and Asians too more likely to be establishment as more centrist.  Nowadays the establishment is those who want to keep Democrats close to center while the anti-establishment is more those who want to pull party well to left. 

[TDAS04]

Looking at data on who black voters have supported in past presidential primaries (starting with 1980), it appears that they generally prefer establishment Democrats; unless the most establishment candidate faces a challenge from a viable black candidate (Barack Obama) or black candidate who’s remotely taken seriously (Jesse Jackson). Or Ted Kennedy, apparently.

[Agafin]

Looking at data on who black voters have supported in past presidential primaries (starting with 1980), it appears that they generally prefer establishment Democrats; unless the most establishment candidate faces a challenge from a viable black candidate (Barack Obama) or black candidate who’s remotely taken seriously (Jesse Jackson). Or Ted Kennedy, apparently.

Um, do we know how black voters voted in the 1980 democratic primaries? Did they back Kennedy?

[David Hume]

nowadays, yeah. Remember that it was mostly white voters who allowed Cori Bush to win her primary.

Blacks are well to the right of white liberals, especially on cultural issues like LGBT.

[TDAS04]

Looking at data on who black voters have supported in past presidential primaries (starting with 1980), it appears that they generally prefer establishment Democrats; unless the most establishment candidate faces a challenge from a viable black candidate (Barack Obama) or black candidate who’s remotely taken seriously (Jesse Jackson). Or Ted Kennedy, apparently.

Um, do we know how black voters voted in the 1980 democratic primaries? Did they back Kennedy?

According to the exit polls, yeah, but with a fairly modest majority (55%). Carter’s firing of Andrew Young caused some controversy.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Lee is strongest with blacks and weakest with whites, but she's black and Schiff still leads blacks.

[Pres Mike]

Black voters over 40, who are the biggest bloc of black voters, value loyalty over anything else. They support establishment candidates because they have shown more loyalty over the years to the black church.

There was a really good article back in 2019 I can't find. It was written by a young black journalist, interviewing members of his church. The consensus of the folks he interviewed was Bernie Sander's platform was best for the black community, but Biden has shown more "respect" to the black community and their knew his potential victory in the primary depended on the black community.

[RI]

Looking at data on who black voters have supported in past presidential primaries (starting with 1980), it appears that they generally prefer establishment Democrats; unless the most establishment candidate faces a challenge from a viable black candidate (Barack Obama) or black candidate who’s remotely taken seriously (Jesse Jackson). Or Ted Kennedy, apparently.

Um, do we know how black voters voted in the 1980 democratic primaries? Did they back Kennedy?

According to the exit polls, yeah, but with a fairly modest majority (55%). Carter’s firing of Andrew Young caused some controversy.

Carter won every county in the Black Belt and won Baltimore and Detroit. Kennedy won Philadelphia, Cleveland, and all five NYC boroughs. It's tough to really tell without precinct data.

[mjba257]

Black voters, particularly the older ones, are often quite socially conservative, making wild lefty insurgent candidates quite unappealing and off-putting to them