Who wins NJ-SEN?

[Tekken_Guy]

Who wins NJ-SEN in 2024?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Relly crossing my fingers for Kim, and I think he's a narrow favorite to win the primary because it seems like high engagement Dems most likely to vote in the primary mostly back him.

Murphy's path basically relies on enough low engagement voters towing the county line, but by definition low engagement voters are less likely to pull up for a primary, especially in NJ which is one of the last states in a noncompetitive Dem Pres primary.

[Lambsbread]

Kim.

[Senator Incitatus]

I’ve moved considerably on this and now consider Kim a slight favorite. It is hard to gauge how much the Democratic base in the state has suburbanized, undermining the traditional advantage of the county line. Kim has also run a good (though not perfect) campaign.

Just wanted to get this on the record before the debate tonight, where I expect Kim to be the heavy superior (for little return on that performance).

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

The machines will steal the election for Tammy Murphy.

[Tekken_Guy]

The machines will steal the election for Tammy Murphy.

How? Will they just cancel the elections and switch to a different nominating system?

[TML]

The machines will steal the election for Tammy Murphy.

How? Will they just cancel the elections and switch to a different nominating system?

This user apparently thinks that Murphy would be coronated with massive institutional support in the primary (similar to how Chuck Schumer & the DSCC have coronated candidates in past primaries around the country).

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Tilt Murphy atm, but I’m getting close to (mentally) shifting the race in favor of Kim.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I need to see some anecdotal evidence before really being sure. As of right now, outside of this forum, from my perspective, you wouldn't even know that a Senate primary is going on this year.

[brucejoel99]

Kim will win because a sufficient number of NJDEM primary voters are gonna open their ballots already intending to look for him on it in spite of the line & vote for him accordingly.

[S019]

Remaining optimistic that Murphy pulls it off.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Remaining optimistic pessimistic that Murphy pulls it off.

[Birdish]

Tammy Murphy didn't do a great job of distinguishing herself during her 6+ years of being the first lady, so her run comes off less as a desire to serve her state and more of an opportunistic power grab. I wouldn't count her out but I think Kim is the clear favorite right now.

I say this as someone who genuinely likes Tammy Murphy and will probably vote for her in the primary. 

[Sir Mohamed]

Seems like Kim is well positioned due to grassrouts energy and favored over Murphy.

[LabourJersey]

I still think this is a toss-up. Voted Murphy just to even out the poll results.

I really hope Kim wins, but Murphy does have a lot of money, and machine support does mean a lot with the county line in NJ, albeit much less than it used to.

[Tekken_Guy]

Remaining optimistic that Murphy Kim pulls it off.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/nnjpolitics/status/1759679214448456058

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/nnjpolitics/status/1759679214448456058

I'm not sure what the map will be, but I can definitely see Kim winning Bergen. The Korean vote alone could make him very appealing here. Granted, we shouldn't assume identity is all that matters. Even so, there has never been a major statewide candidate of Korean descent. It'll have some impact for sure.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/tomamoran/status/1761781929366417795