Predict senate retirements in 2026 and 2028

[Tekken_Guy]

Predict who will retire from the Senate in 2026 and 2028.

[Spectator]

If Trump wins, I think Collins is smart enough to know she’d lose, and thus would opt to retire. Jeanne Shaheen maybe for Democrats. I don’t really care much about the safe states to predict.

2028, I bet Johnson retires. His narrow 2022 win against a Squad member wannabe was embarrassing.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Predict who will retire from the Senate in 2026 and 2028.

2026
Ed Markey, Jack Reed, Dick Durbin, John Hickenlooper, Susan Collins, Jeanne Shaheen, John Cornyn, Mitch McConnell, Jim Risch

2028
Chuck Grassley, Richard Blumenthal, Peter Welch, Ron Wyden, Patty Murray, Chuck Schumer, John Boozman, Mike Crapo, John Kennedy, Jerry Moran, Ron Johnson

[Ferguson97]

2026
- Tommy Tuberville
- Jim Risch
- Mitch McConnell
- Thom Tillis (but only if Trump wins)
- John Cornyn
- Dick Durbin (but only if Biden wins)

2028
- Tim Scott (already confirmed)
- Richard Blumenthal
- Chuck Grassley (thought it would be hilarious if he didn't)
- Ron Wyden
- Patty Murray

[Tekken_Guy]

2026
- Tommy Tuberville
- Jim Risch
- Mitch McConnell
- Thom Tillis (but only if Trump wins)
- John Cornyn
- Dick Durbin (but only if Biden wins)

2028
- Tim Scott (already confirmed)
- Richard Blumenthal
- Chuck Grassley (thought it would be hilarious if he didn't)
- Ron Wyden
- Patty Murray

I see Tuberville sticking around for one final term, but don’t see him going past 2032. Non-zero chance Trump gives him a job in his administration though.

If Trump wins there’s a chance Tim Scott is already out of the senate and he’s Vice President or otherwise part of his cabinet. Also a decent chance Grassley doesn’t make it to the end of his term, sadly.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Out of Republicans (assuming a second Trump term), this is how I'd sort the incumbent Senators.

Very high likelihood of retiring
Mitch McConnell
Mike Rounds

Likely retiring
Jim Risch
Bill Cassidy (now that Louisiana is getting rid of jungle primaries)
Susan Collins
Shelley Moore Capito
John Cornyn

Decent chance of retiring
Thom Tillis
Lindsey Graham
Dan Sullivan

Very low likelihood of retiring
Tom Cotton
Joni Ernst
Roger Marshall
Steve Daines
Cindy Hyde-Smith
Markwayne Mullin
Bill Hagerty
Tommy Tuberville

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Johnson
McConnell


Low risk of retirement
Cornyn

[Arizona Iced Tea]

If he doesn't retire, I think Grassley could outright lose in 2028 to a competent Democrat. He wants to be a lifer, but I think many voters are going to be very excited to give a 96 year old his 9th term.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2026
- Tommy Tuberville
- Jim Risch
- Mitch McConnell
- Thom Tillis (but only if Trump wins)
- John Cornyn
- Dick Durbin (but only if Biden wins)

2028
- Tim Scott (already confirmed)
- Richard Blumenthal
- Chuck Grassley (thought it would be hilarious if he didn't)
- Ron Wyden
- Patty Murray

I see Tuberville sticking around for one final term, but don’t see him going past 2032. Non-zero chance Trump gives him a job in his administration though.

If Trump wins there’s a chance Tim Scott is already out of the senate and he’s Vice President or otherwise part of his cabinet. Also a decent chance Grassley doesn’t make it to the end of his term, sadly.

Durbin isn't retiring he is Chairman of the Judicial Cmte

[MarkD]

2026 -- Risch, Durbin, McConnell, Collins, and Reed.

2028 -- Blumenthal, Crapo, Grassley (of he's still alive by then), Kennedy, Schumer, Wyden, Scott, Murray.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Johnson
McConnell


Low risk of retirement
Cornyn

Cornyn wants the Majority Leader spot.

Imo if he gets it, he doesn't retire. If he loses it, he retires.