Senate Predictions, 2024-2026
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 28, 2024, 03:51:19 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Senate Predictions, 2024-2026
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Senate Predictions, 2024-2026  (Read 460 times)
Heebie Jeebie
jeb_arlo
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,181
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: February 16, 2024, 09:14:24 PM »
« edited: February 16, 2024, 09:22:50 PM by Heebie Jeebie »

My current predictions:

2024
Democrats have a net loss of one Senate seat.
Vermont:  Bernie Sanders (I) retires; Becca Balint (D) wins.
Massachusetts:  Elizabeth Warren (D) re-elected.
Maryland:  Angela Alsobrooks (D) wins.
Hawaii:  Mazie Hirono (D) re-elected.
California:  Katie Porter (D) wins.
New York:  Kirsten Gillibrand (D) re-elected.
Rhode Island:  Sheldon Whitehouse (D) re-elected.
Connecticut:  Chris Murphy (D) re-elected.
Washington:  Maria Cantwell (D) re-elected.
Delaware:  Lisa Blunt Rochester (D) wins.
New Jersey:  Andy Kim (D) wins.
Virginia:  Tim Kaine (D) re-elected.
Maine:  Angus King (I) re-elected.
Minnesota:  Amy Klobuchar (D) re-elected.
Michigan:  Elissa Slotkin (D) wins.
Nevada:  Jacky Rosen (D) re-elected.
Pennsylvania:  Bob Casey, Jr. (D) re-elected.
Wisconsin:  Tammy Baldwin (D) re-elected.
Arizona:  Ruben Gallego (D) wins.
Florida:  Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) wins.
Texas:  Colin Allred (D) wins.
Republicans win/hold the rest (including OH and MT).

2026
No net gains or losses.
Massachusetts:  Ed Markey (D) retires; Seth Moulton (D) wins.
Rhode Island:  Jack Reed (D) retires; Gina Raimondo (D) wins.
Delaware:  Chris Coons (D) re-elected.
Illinois:  Dick Durbin (D) retires; Raja Krishnamoorthi (D) wins.
Oregon:  Jeff Merkley (D) re-elected.
New Jersey:  Cory Booker (D) re-elected.
Colorado:  John Hickenlooper (D) retires; Jared Polis (D) wins.
New Mexico:  Ben Ray Lujan (D) re-elected.
Virginia:  Mark Warner (D) re-elected.
Maine:  Susan Collins (R) retires; Jared Golden (D) flips this one blue.
New Hampshire:  Jeanne Shaheen (D) retures; Chris Pappas (D) wins.
Minnesota:  Tim Smith (D) re-elected.
Michigan:  Gary Peters (D) re-elected.
Republicans win/hold the rest (including GA).
Logged
Tekken_Guy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,986
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: February 16, 2024, 09:46:00 PM »
« Edited: February 17, 2024, 01:48:05 AM by Tekken_Guy »

2024
-Arizona: Ruben Gallego (D)
-California: Adam Schiff (D).
-Connecticut: Chris Murphy (D).
-Delaware: Lisa Blunt Rochester (D)
-Florida: Rick Scott (R)
-Hawaii: Mazie Hirono (D)
-Indiana: Jim Banks (R)
-Maine: Angus King (I-D)
-Maryland: David Trone (D)
-Massachusetts: Elizabeth Warren (D)
-Michigan: Elissa Slotkin (D)
-Missisippi: Roger Wicker (R)
-Missouri: Josh Hawley (R)
-Montana: Tim Sheehy (R)
-Nebraska (regular): Deb Fischer (R)
-Nebraska (special): Pete Ricketts (R)
-Nevada: Jacky Rosen (D)
-New Jersey: Andy Kim (D)
-New Mexico: Martin Heinrich (D)
-New York: Kirsten Gillibrand (D)
-North Dakota: Kevin Cramer (R)
-Ohio: Bernie Moreno (R)
-Pennsylvania: Bob Casey (D)
-Rhode Island: Sheldon Whitehouse (D)
-Tennesee: Marsha Blackburn (R)
-Texas: Ted Cruz (R)
-Utah: John Curtis (R)
-Vermont: Bernie Sanders (I-D)
-Virginia: Tim Kaine (D)
-Washington: Maria Cantwell (D)
-West Virginia: Jim Justice (R)
-Wisconsin: Tammy Baldwin (D)
-Wyoming: John Barrasso (R)

2026
-Alabama: Tommy Tuberville (R)
-Alaska: Dan Sullivan (R)
-Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R)
-Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D)
-Delaware: Chris Coons (D)
-Georgia: Jon Ossoff (D)
-Idaho: Russ Fulcher (R)
-Illinois: Lauren Underwood (D)
-Iowa: Joni Ernst (R)
-Kansas: Roger Marshall (R)
-Kentucky: Daniel Cameron (R)
-Louisiana: Julia Letlow (R)
-Maine: Jared Golden (D)
-Massachusetts: Ayanna Pressley (D)
-Michigan: Gary Peters (D)
-Mississippi: Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)
-Montana: Steve Daines (R)
-Nebraska: Pete Ricketts (R)
-New Hampshire: Chris Pappas (D)
-New Jersey: Cory Booker (D)
-New Mexico: Ben Ray Lujan (D)
-North Carolina: Wiley Nickel (D)
-Oklahoma: Markwayne Mullin (R)
-Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D)
-Rhode Island: Seth Magaziner (D)
-South Carolina (regular): Lindsey Graham (R)
-South Carolina (special): Nancy Mace (R)
-South Dakota: Dusty Johnson (R)
-Tennessee: Bill Hagerty (R)
-Texas: Joaquin Castro (D)
-Virginia: Mark Warner (D)
-West Virginia: Alex Mooney (R)
-Wyoming: Cynthia Lummis (R)
Logged
Spectator
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,382
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: February 16, 2024, 10:05:24 PM »
« Edited: February 16, 2024, 10:20:30 PM by Spectator »

2024: Trump very narrowly wins, and GOP flips WV, OH, and MT. Dems narrowly hold the rest of the swing states. Ted Cruz wins by <1%, putting Texas squarely on the map for 2026 and 2028. 52-48 GOP Senate

2026: Trump midterm. ME and NC flip for sure. AK (Mary Peltola vs Dan Sullivan), IA (Rob Sand vs Joni Ernst), TX (Allred again if Cornyn retires/primaried?), and KS (Laura Kelly vs. Roger Marshall) are highly contested, and 1-2 of those Dems win as well. Ossoff and Peters win reelection and it’s not very close. Narrow Dem majority.

Edited to specify I think Jared Golden and Roy Cooper flip ME and NC in 2026.
Logged
Tekken_Guy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,986
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: February 16, 2024, 10:14:06 PM »

2024: Trump very narrowly wins, and GOP flips WV, OH, and MT. Dems narrowly hold the rest of the swing states. Ted Cruz wins by <1%, putting Texas squarely on the map for 2026 and 2028. 52-48 GOP Senate

2026: Trump midterm. ME and NC flip for sure. AK (Mary Peltola vs Dan Sullivan), IA (Rob Sand vs Joni Ernst), TX (Allred again if Cornyn retires/primaried?), and KS (Laura Kelly vs. Roger Marshall) are highly contested, and 1-2 of those Dems win as well. Ossoff and Peters win reelection and it’s not very close. Narrow Dem majority.

Peltola runs for senate when Murkowski retires.
Logged
Spectator
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,382
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: February 16, 2024, 10:16:35 PM »

2024: Trump very narrowly wins, and GOP flips WV, OH, and MT. Dems narrowly hold the rest of the swing states. Ted Cruz wins by <1%, putting Texas squarely on the map for 2026 and 2028. 52-48 GOP Senate

2026: Trump midterm. ME and NC flip for sure. AK (Mary Peltola vs Dan Sullivan), IA (Rob Sand vs Joni Ernst), TX (Allred again if Cornyn retires/primaried?), and KS (Laura Kelly vs. Roger Marshall) are highly contested, and 1-2 of those Dems win as well. Ossoff and Peters win reelection and it’s not very close. Narrow Dem majority.

Peltola runs for senate when Murkowski retires.

Probably. I do think a Trump second term would entice a lot of top tier Democrat challengers in the stretch states (Kansas, Iowa, Alaska, and Texas) to hop in though. But i do agree with you that her waiting until 2028 would be her smartest move.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,738


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: February 16, 2024, 10:24:43 PM »

2024: Trump very narrowly wins, and GOP flips WV, OH, and MT. Dems narrowly hold the rest of the swing states. Ted Cruz wins by <1%, putting Texas squarely on the map for 2026 and 2028. 52-48 GOP Senate

2026: Trump midterm. ME and NC flip for sure. AK (Mary Peltola vs Dan Sullivan), IA (Rob Sand vs Joni Ernst), TX (Allred again if Cornyn retires/primaried?), and KS (Laura Kelly vs. Roger Marshall) are highly contested, and 1-2 of those Dems win as well. Ossoff and Peters win reelection and it’s not very close. Narrow Dem majority.

Peltola runs for senate when Murkowski retires.
If we were to see 2026 be a Dem wave year like 2018 and 2028 be a tilt Dem year like 2020, then I think Peltola would have an easier time in the former, even though she would be facing an incumbent.
Logged
Tekken_Guy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,986
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: February 16, 2024, 10:26:25 PM »

2024: Trump very narrowly wins, and GOP flips WV, OH, and MT. Dems narrowly hold the rest of the swing states. Ted Cruz wins by <1%, putting Texas squarely on the map for 2026 and 2028. 52-48 GOP Senate

2026: Trump midterm. ME and NC flip for sure. AK (Mary Peltola vs Dan Sullivan), IA (Rob Sand vs Joni Ernst), TX (Allred again if Cornyn retires/primaried?), and KS (Laura Kelly vs. Roger Marshall) are highly contested, and 1-2 of those Dems win as well. Ossoff and Peters win reelection and it’s not very close. Narrow Dem majority.

Peltola runs for senate when Murkowski retires.

Probably. I do think a Trump second term would entice a lot of top tier Democrat challengers in the stretch states (Kansas, Iowa, Alaska, and Texas) to hop in though. But i do agree with you that her waiting until 2028 would be her smartest move.


I think there’s a possibility Tester tries for a comeback against Daines. Maybe there’s an effort at Lindsey Graham’s seat, or even Tim Scott’s in a special should be picked as VP or for a cabinet slot, or the Mississippi seat. Also JBE and Andy Beshear could be recruited as “money traps”.
Logged
Tekken_Guy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,986
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: February 16, 2024, 10:29:15 PM »

2024: Trump very narrowly wins, and GOP flips WV, OH, and MT. Dems narrowly hold the rest of the swing states. Ted Cruz wins by <1%, putting Texas squarely on the map for 2026 and 2028. 52-48 GOP Senate

2026: Trump midterm. ME and NC flip for sure. AK (Mary Peltola vs Dan Sullivan), IA (Rob Sand vs Joni Ernst), TX (Allred again if Cornyn retires/primaried?), and KS (Laura Kelly vs. Roger Marshall) are highly contested, and 1-2 of those Dems win as well. Ossoff and Peters win reelection and it’s not very close. Narrow Dem majority.

Peltola runs for senate when Murkowski retires.
If we were to see 2026 be a Dem wave year like 2018 and 2028 be a tilt Dem year like 2020, then I think Peltola would have an easier time in the former, even though she would be facing an incumbent.

Trump will likely be far more unpopular at the end of his second term than he was after his first.
Logged
Spectator
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,382
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: February 16, 2024, 10:31:47 PM »

2024: Trump very narrowly wins, and GOP flips WV, OH, and MT. Dems narrowly hold the rest of the swing states. Ted Cruz wins by <1%, putting Texas squarely on the map for 2026 and 2028. 52-48 GOP Senate

2026: Trump midterm. ME and NC flip for sure. AK (Mary Peltola vs Dan Sullivan), IA (Rob Sand vs Joni Ernst), TX (Allred again if Cornyn retires/primaried?), and KS (Laura Kelly vs. Roger Marshall) are highly contested, and 1-2 of those Dems win as well. Ossoff and Peters win reelection and it’s not very close. Narrow Dem majority.

Peltola runs for senate when Murkowski retires.

Probably. I do think a Trump second term would entice a lot of top tier Democrat challengers in the stretch states (Kansas, Iowa, Alaska, and Texas) to hop in though. But i do agree with you that her waiting until 2028 would be her smartest move.


I think there’s a possibility Tester tries for a comeback against Daines. Maybe there’s an effort at Lindsey Graham’s seat, or even Tim Scott’s in a special should be picked as VP or for a cabinet slot, or the Mississippi seat. Also JBE and Andy Beshear could be recruited as “money traps”.

Maybe, but I think TX, AK, KS, and then Iowa in a distant fourth would be far smarter bets for money, and I think national Democrats are smart enough to realize KY, SC, and LA would be lost causes. Really only with the aforementioned candidates though. Kinda rests on lulling Laura Kelly and Mary Peltola and Rob Sand into those races. And make no mistake. There would be a lot of pressure on each of them to run.
Logged
Tekken_Guy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,986
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: February 16, 2024, 10:34:09 PM »

2024: Trump very narrowly wins, and GOP flips WV, OH, and MT. Dems narrowly hold the rest of the swing states. Ted Cruz wins by <1%, putting Texas squarely on the map for 2026 and 2028. 52-48 GOP Senate

2026: Trump midterm. ME and NC flip for sure. AK (Mary Peltola vs Dan Sullivan), IA (Rob Sand vs Joni Ernst), TX (Allred again if Cornyn retires/primaried?), and KS (Laura Kelly vs. Roger Marshall) are highly contested, and 1-2 of those Dems win as well. Ossoff and Peters win reelection and it’s not very close. Narrow Dem majority.

Peltola runs for senate when Murkowski retires.

Probably. I do think a Trump second term would entice a lot of top tier Democrat challengers in the stretch states (Kansas, Iowa, Alaska, and Texas) to hop in though. But i do agree with you that her waiting until 2028 would be her smartest move.


I think there’s a possibility Tester tries for a comeback against Daines. Maybe there’s an effort at Lindsey Graham’s seat, or even Tim Scott’s in a special should be picked as VP or for a cabinet slot, or the Mississippi seat. Also JBE and Andy Beshear could be recruited as “money traps”.

Maybe, but I think TX, AK, KS, and then Iowa in a distant fourth would be far smarter bets for money, and I think national Democrats are smart enough to realize KY, SC, and LA would be lost causes.

KY/SC/LA are mainly traps for the GOP to light money on fire in just like MD is this year for Democrats.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,687
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: February 17, 2024, 12:07:45 AM »

My current predictions:

2024
Democrats have a net loss of one Senate seat.
Vermont:  Bernie Sanders (I) retires; Becca Balint (D) wins.
Massachusetts:  Elizabeth Warren (D) re-elected.
Maryland:  Angela Alsobrooks (D) wins.
Hawaii:  Mazie Hirono (D) re-elected.
California:  Katie Porter (D) wins.
New York:  Kirsten Gillibrand (D) re-elected.
Rhode Island:  Sheldon Whitehouse (D) re-elected.
Connecticut:  Chris Murphy (D) re-elected.
Washington:  Maria Cantwell (D) re-elected.
Delaware:  Lisa Blunt Rochester (D) wins.
New Jersey:  Andy Kim (D) wins.
Virginia:  Tim Kaine (D) re-elected.
Maine:  Angus King (I) re-elected.
Minnesota:  Amy Klobuchar (D) re-elected.
Michigan:  Elissa Slotkin (D) wins.
Nevada:  Jacky Rosen (D) re-elected.
Pennsylvania:  Bob Casey, Jr. (D) re-elected.
Wisconsin:  Tammy Baldwin (D) re-elected.
Arizona:  Ruben Gallego (D) wins.
Florida:  Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) wins.
Texas:  Colin Allred (D) wins.
Republicans win/hold the rest (including OH and MT).

2026
No net gains or losses.
Massachusetts:  Ed Markey (D) retires; Seth Moulton (D) wins.
Rhode Island:  Jack Reed (D) retires; Gina Raimondo (D) wins.
Delaware:  Chris Coons (D) re-elected.
Illinois:  Dick Durbin (D) retires; Raja Krishnamoorthi (D) wins.
Oregon:  Jeff Merkley (D) re-elected.
New Jersey:  Cory Booker (D) re-elected.
Colorado:  John Hickenlooper (D) retires; Jared Polis (D) wins.
New Mexico:  Ben Ray Lujan (D) re-elected.
Virginia:  Mark Warner (D) re-elected.
Maine:  Susan Collins (R) retires; Jared Golden (D) flips this one blue.
New Hampshire:  Jeanne Shaheen (D) retures; Chris Pappas (D) wins.
Minnesota:  Tim Smith (D) re-elected.
Michigan:  Gary Peters (D) re-elected.
Republicans win/hold the rest (including GA).


You know Brown and Tester and ALLRED are ahead and Bernie has not retired
Logged
Tekken_Guy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,986
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: February 17, 2024, 01:53:29 AM »

2024: Trump very narrowly wins, and GOP flips WV, OH, and MT. Dems narrowly hold the rest of the swing states. Ted Cruz wins by <1%, putting Texas squarely on the map for 2026 and 2028. 52-48 GOP Senate

2026: Trump midterm. ME and NC flip for sure. AK (Mary Peltola vs Dan Sullivan), IA (Rob Sand vs Joni Ernst), TX (Allred again if Cornyn retires/primaried?), and KS (Laura Kelly vs. Roger Marshall) are highly contested, and 1-2 of those Dems win as well. Ossoff and Peters win reelection and it’s not very close. Narrow Dem majority.

Edited to specify I think Jared Golden and Roy Cooper flip ME and NC in 2026.

I do not believe Cooper ultimately ends up running in NC in 2026 given he’ll be over 70 by then, and I think the nominee will be Wiley Nickel.

Also I don’t think Brian Kemp runs in 2026 if Trump is president, and Ossoff ends up facing MTG or someone of her ilk.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,687
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: February 17, 2024, 02:12:21 AM »

Kemp would lose to Ossof anyways
Logged
President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️
Peebs
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,036
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: February 17, 2024, 07:03:06 AM »

Everyone is re-elected (including Biden, who just barely pulls it off), with the exceptions of:

2024
- Arizona: Ruben Gallego (D)
- California: Adam Schiff (D)
- Delaware: Lisa Blunt Rochester (D)
- Indiana: Jim Banks (R)
- Maryland: David Trone (D)
- Michigan: Elissa Slotkin (D)
- Montana: Tim Sheehy (R)
- Ohio: Bernie Moreno (R)
- New Jersey: Tammy Murphy (D)
- West Virginia: Jim Justice (R)

2026
- Idaho: Russ Fulcher (R)
- Illinois: Lauren Underwood (D)
- Kentucky: Daniel Cameron (R)
- Louisiana: Clay Higgins (R)
- North Carolina: Roy Cooper (D)
- South Dakota: Kristi Noem (R)
- Vermont (special; Sen. Sanders now an 85-year-old Labor Secretary): Becca Balint (D)

OH-SEN 2024 is heartbreakingly close, as is ME-SEN 2026. NC-SEN 2026 is, too, just heartbreaking for the other guys.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,687
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: February 17, 2024, 09:31:42 AM »
« Edited: February 17, 2024, 09:38:42 AM by PHARAOH BAKARI SELLERS »

AZ GALLEGO def Lake
CA SCHIFF* DEF GARVEY
MD TRONE def Hogan
MT TESTER* def Sheeley
NEB OSBORNE def Fischer*
NM HEINRICH*def Doninici
OH BROWN* def LaRose
TX ALLRED def Cruz*
WI BALDWIN* def Hovde


KEY SWING STATES


26 pure speculation
Me Golden def R Collins retirement
MT BUSSE def Daines*
NC RILEY def Tillis*
TX GUITERREZ def R.  CORNYN RETIRED

28

OH LANDSMAN
WI RODRIGUEZ  def R Johnson retirement
Logged
Heebie Jeebie
jeb_arlo
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,181
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: February 17, 2024, 10:16:59 AM »

2024: Trump very narrowly wins, and GOP flips WV, OH, and MT. Dems narrowly hold the rest of the swing states. Ted Cruz wins by <1%, putting Texas squarely on the map for 2026 and 2028. 52-48 GOP Senate

2026: Trump midterm. ME and NC flip for sure. AK (Mary Peltola vs Dan Sullivan), IA (Rob Sand vs Joni Ernst), TX (Allred again if Cornyn retires/primaried?), and KS (Laura Kelly vs. Roger Marshall) are highly contested, and 1-2 of those Dems win as well. Ossoff and Peters win reelection and it’s not very close. Narrow Dem majority.

Peltola runs for senate when Murkowski retires.

I doubt Murkowski retires until 2034.  I think there's a high likelihood that Peltola runs for governor in 2026--she's already shown she can win statewide.  If she wins and wins again, she'd be leaving the governor's office right when Murkowski's Senate seat opens up.  It's a natural progression.
Logged
Heebie Jeebie
jeb_arlo
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,181
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: February 17, 2024, 10:51:08 AM »

2024: Trump very narrowly wins, and GOP flips WV, OH, and MT. Dems narrowly hold the rest of the swing states. Ted Cruz wins by <1%, putting Texas squarely on the map for 2026 and 2028. 52-48 GOP Senate

2026: Trump midterm. ME and NC flip for sure. AK (Mary Peltola vs Dan Sullivan), IA (Rob Sand vs Joni Ernst), TX (Allred again if Cornyn retires/primaried?), and KS (Laura Kelly vs. Roger Marshall) are highly contested, and 1-2 of those Dems win as well. Ossoff and Peters win reelection and it’s not very close. Narrow Dem majority.

Edited to specify I think Jared Golden and Roy Cooper flip ME and NC in 2026.

In Iowa, I think Rob Sand is much more likely to run for governor--Abby Finkenauer would be the likely challenger to Ernst, IMO.  I also think 2026 is finally the year we see one of the Castro brothers run for statewide in Texas--only I think it will be Joaquin having a go at Cornyn's seat.  Which is good, since he's the more talented politician of the two anyway. 
Logged
SnowLabrador
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,565
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: February 17, 2024, 10:56:48 AM »

Even in a Trump midterm, I see Iowa as completely off the table. Ernst may not be a particularly strong incumbent, but the state has zoomed rightward - it's the reverse of Colorado. She'll win by double digits even in a blue wave.
Logged
Heebie Jeebie
jeb_arlo
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,181
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: February 17, 2024, 10:58:42 AM »

2024: Trump very narrowly wins, and GOP flips WV, OH, and MT. Dems narrowly hold the rest of the swing states. Ted Cruz wins by <1%, putting Texas squarely on the map for 2026 and 2028. 52-48 GOP Senate

2026: Trump midterm. ME and NC flip for sure. AK (Mary Peltola vs Dan Sullivan), IA (Rob Sand vs Joni Ernst), TX (Allred again if Cornyn retires/primaried?), and KS (Laura Kelly vs. Roger Marshall) are highly contested, and 1-2 of those Dems win as well. Ossoff and Peters win reelection and it’s not very close. Narrow Dem majority.

Edited to specify I think Jared Golden and Roy Cooper flip ME and NC in 2026.

I do not believe Cooper ultimately ends up running in NC in 2026 given he’ll be over 70 by then, and I think the nominee will be Wiley Nickel.

Also I don’t think Brian Kemp runs in 2026 if Trump is president, and Ossoff ends up facing MTG or someone of her ilk.

There will be immense pressure on Cooper to run in 2026.  Nothing against Nickel, but Cooper would unquestionably be the stronger candidate, and he'd "only" be 69 on election day.  In fact, he could even commit to serving only one term and probably boost his campaign by doing so.

I think there's a good chance Kemp starts looking to set up a presidential bid as his time in the governor's office comes to a close.  If that is his ambition, I agree that he'd probably be very hesitant to throw himself into a high-risk-low-reward race against Ossoff.
Logged
Spectator
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,382
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: February 17, 2024, 11:09:09 AM »
« Edited: February 17, 2024, 02:14:25 PM by Spectator »

2024: Trump very narrowly wins, and GOP flips WV, OH, and MT. Dems narrowly hold the rest of the swing states. Ted Cruz wins by <1%, putting Texas squarely on the map for 2026 and 2028. 52-48 GOP Senate

2026: Trump midterm. ME and NC flip for sure. AK (Mary Peltola vs Dan Sullivan), IA (Rob Sand vs Joni Ernst), TX (Allred again if Cornyn retires/primaried?), and KS (Laura Kelly vs. Roger Marshall) are highly contested, and 1-2 of those Dems win as well. Ossoff and Peters win reelection and it’s not very close. Narrow Dem majority.

Edited to specify I think Jared Golden and Roy Cooper flip ME and NC in 2026.

I do not believe Cooper ultimately ends up running in NC in 2026 given he’ll be over 70 by then, and I think the nominee will be Wiley Nickel.

Also I don’t think Brian Kemp runs in 2026 if Trump is president, and Ossoff ends up facing MTG or someone of her ilk.

1. 69 is not that old
2. It’s okay to disagree with me. I happen to think there will be a lot of pressure put on Cooper to run by national and state Democrats.
3. Maybe. I bet Trump probably tries to stop Kemp from getting the nomination/establishment support for the run anyway, but Kemp might decide to run anyhow. If MTG is the nominee, then Democrats probably sweep every statewide race in 2026. Ossoff would win by 7+ points and drag everyone else with him.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,687
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: February 17, 2024, 11:13:02 AM »

Brown and Tester aren't losing how many polls are gonna show you that
Logged
Tekken_Guy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,986
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: February 17, 2024, 12:59:49 PM »

Everyone is re-elected (including Biden, who just barely pulls it off), with the exceptions of:

2024
- Arizona: Ruben Gallego (D)
- California: Adam Schiff (D)
- Delaware: Lisa Blunt Rochester (D)
- Indiana: Jim Banks (R)
- Maryland: David Trone (D)
- Michigan: Elissa Slotkin (D)
- Montana: Tim Sheehy (R)
- Ohio: Bernie Moreno (R)
- New Jersey: Tammy Murphy (D)
- West Virginia: Jim Justice (R)

2026
- Idaho: Russ Fulcher (R)
- Illinois: Lauren Underwood (D)
- Kentucky: Daniel Cameron (R)
- Louisiana: Clay Higgins (R)
- North Carolina: Roy Cooper (D)
- South Dakota: Kristi Noem (R)
- Vermont (special; Sen. Sanders now an 85-year-old Labor Secretary): Becca Balint (D)

OH-SEN 2024 is heartbreakingly close, as is ME-SEN 2026. NC-SEN 2026 is, too, just heartbreaking for the other guys.

Andy Kim is not losing.
Logged
President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️
Peebs
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,036
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: February 17, 2024, 01:19:08 PM »

I hope you're right, but I don't trust the people of New Jersey to make the right decision yet.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.07 seconds with 11 queries.