Gubernatorial Predictions, 2024-2027

[Heebie Jeebie]

Here are my current predictions:

2024
Democrats have a net gain of one governorship.
Vermont:  Phil Scott (R) wins re-election.
Washington:  Bob Ferguson (D) wins.
Delaware:  Bethany Hall-Long (D) wins.
New Hampshire:  Joyce Craig (D) flips this one blue.
North Carolina:  Josh Stein (D) wins.
Republicans win/hold the rest.

2025
Democrats have a net gain of one governorship.
New Jersey:  Josh Gottheimer (D) wins.
Virginia:  Abigail Spanberger (D) flips this one blue.

2026
No net gains or losses.
Vermont:  Phil Scott (R) re-elected.
Massachusetts:  Maura Healey (D) re-elected.
Maryland:  Wes Moore (D) re-elected.
Hawaii:  Josh Green (D) re-elected.
California:  Rob Bonta (D) wins.
New York:  Kathy Hochul (D) re-elected.
Rhode Island:  Sabina Matos (D) wins.
Connecticut:  Ned Lamont (D) re-elected.
Illinois:  J.B. Pritzker (D) re-elected.
Oregon:  Tina Kotek (D) re-elected.
Colorado:  Jena Griswold (D) wins. [Hickenlooper retires and Jared Polis moves to the Senate.]
New Mexico:  Hector Balderas (D) wins.
Maine:  Adam Cote (D) wins.
New Hampshire:  Joyce Craig (D) re-elected.
Minnesota:  Tim Walz (D) re-elected.
Michigan:  Jocelyn Benson (D) wins.
Nevada:  Aaron Ford (D) flips this one blue.
Pennsylvania:  Josh Shapiro (D) re-elected.
Wisconsin:  Josh Kaul (D) wins.
Arizona:  Katie Hobbs (D) re-elected.
Republicans win/hold the rest.

2027
Democrats have a net loss of one governorship.
Mississippi:  Brandon Presley (D) loses.
Louisiana:  Cedric Richmond (D) loses.
Kentucky:  Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) loses.

[Tekken_Guy]

2024
-Delaware: Bethany-Hall Long (D)
-Indiana: Mike Braun (R)
-Missouri: Jay Ashcroft (R)
-Montana: Greg Gianforte (R)
-New Hampshire: Kelly Ayotte (R)
-North Carolina: Josh Stein (D)
-North Dakota: Kelly Armstrong (R)
-Utah: Spencer Cox (R)
-Vermont: Phil Scott (R)
-Washington: Bob Ferguson (D)

2025
-New Jersey: Steven Fulop (D)
-Virginia: Abigail Spanberger (D)

2026
-Alabama: Will Ainsworth (R)
-Alaska: Alyse Galvin (I)
-Arizona: Katie Hobbs (D)
-Arkansas: Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R)
-California: Rob Bonta (D)
-Colorado: Jason Crow (D)
-Connecticut: William Tong (D)
-Florida: Jared Moskowitz (D)
-Georgia: Lucy McBath (D)
-Hawaii: Josh Green (D)
-Idaho: Brad Little (R)
-Illinois: J.B. Pritzker (D)
-Iowa: Adam Gregg (R)
-Kansas: Scott Schwab (R)
-Maine: Aaron Frey (D)
-Maryland: Wes Moore (D)
-Massachusetts: Maura Healey (D)
-Michigan: Jocelyn Benson (D)
-Minnesota: Peggy Flanagan (D)
-Nebraska: Jim Pillen (R)
-Nevada: Joe Lombardo (R)
-New Hampshire: Donna Soucy (D)
-New Mexico: Howie Morales (D)
-New York: Kathy Hochul (D)
-Ohio: Jon Husted (R)
-Oklahoma: Matt Pinnell (R)
-Oregon: Tina Kotek (D)
-Pennsylvania: Josh Shapiro (D)
-Rhode Island: Dan McKee (D)
-South Carolina: Alan Wilson (R)
-South Dakota: Larry Rhoden (R)
-Tennessee: Glenn Jacobs (R)
-Texas: Colin Allred (D)
-Vermont: Jill Krowinski (D)
-Wisconsin: Sara Rodriguez (D)
-Wyoming: Chuck Gray (R)

2027
-Kentucky: Michael Adams (R)
-Louisiana: Jeff Landry (R)
-Mississippi: Lynn Fitch (R)

[Spectator]

2024 (Trump very narrowly wins)
Dems very narrowly flip NH and hold NC. No other flips. 26-24 GOP

2025
Dems flip VA and hold NJ. 25-25 split

2026
Dems flip Georgia, Vermont (Scott retires), and Texas. Dems hold Kansas against Kris Kobach (sounds familiar?). No other flips. 28-22 Dem

2027
Kentucky flips, and all three are GOP. 27-23 Dem

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Hobbs wins by an Evers margin. She seems very similar to Evers in many ways.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

2024
DE: Democrat Matt Meyer holds
IN: Republican Mike Braun holds
MO: Republican Jay Ashcroft holds
NH: Democrat Joyce Craig flips
NC: Democrat Josh Stein holds
ND: Republican Kelly Armstrong holds
WA: Democrat Bob Ferguson holds
All incumbents re-elected

2025:
NJ: Democrat Mikie Sherrill holds
VA: Democrat Abigail Spanberger flips

2026:
AL: Republican Will Ainsworth holds
AK: Republican Kelly Merrick holds
AZ: Republican Juan Ciscomani flips
CA: Democrat Toni Atkins holds
CO: Democrat Phil Weiser holds
CT: Democrat Susan Bysiewicz holds
FL: Republican Byron Donalds holds
GA: Democrat Carolyn Bordeaux flips
ID: Republican Tommy Ahlquist holds
KS: Democrat David Toland holds (Kris Kobach is nominated)
ME: Democrat Jared Golden holds
MI: Democrat Jocelyn Benson holds
MN: Democrat Peggy Flanagan holds
NH: Democrat Joyce Craig holds
NM: Democrat Tim Keller holds
OH: Republican Jon Husted holds
OK: Republican Ryan Walters holds
SC: Republican Tim Scott holds
SD: Republican Dusty Johnson holds
TN: Republican Mark Green holds
VT: Democrat Miro Weinberger flips
WI: Democrat Tony Evers holds
WY: Republican Bo Biteman holds
All other incumbents win re-election

2027:
KY: Republican Michael Adams flips
MS: Republican Lynn Fitch holds