Maryland Matters poll (Gonzales): Biden +21, +17

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

53 Biden
32 Trump

45 Biden
28 Trump
18 Kennedy

https://www.marylandmatters.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Gonzales-Poll-Part-2-Maryland-Statewide-February-2024.pdf

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Polls for Kennedy are all over the place.

18% here, sometimes 25% in other states, and then 2% in North Carolina.

What's going on?

[ProgressiveModerate]

No way Biden "only" wins Maryland by 20. Part of the reason I struggle to trust polling right now is because a lot of the results in safe D/safe R states are unrealistic.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

No way Biden "only" wins Maryland by 20. Part of the reason I struggle to trust polling right now is because a lot of the results in safe D/safe R states are unrealistic.

Polling has never been good in these kind of states to be honest, not in prior cycles too, usually underestimating the margin. Way too many undecideds. I think though 32 is Trumps floor (and maybe ceiling too). Most of the other vote will be Biden with minor share 3rd party.

[kwabbit]

No way Biden "only" wins Maryland by 20. Part of the reason I struggle to trust polling right now is because a lot of the results in safe D/safe R states are unrealistic.

Polling has always been crappy in safe states. The question for Maryland is whether the underrating of the Democratic nominee is just a thing when the race is already lopsided or if that's going to very likely happen in the Senate race as well. Polling is probably going to overrate Hogan anyway, but that will also be because of late Dem movement to the nominee, not just from a polling issue.

[SnowLabrador]

Trump will struggle to get within 25 points here, but the Senate race is a tossup.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Trump at 28 or 32 is definitely probable.